SANTA CLARA — The NFL thinks it has Chip Kelly figured out. He does not like this. He’s going to do something about this.
Kelly has certainly earned some respect around the league, but entering his fourth NFL season, his no-huddle communication system and his lightning-quick play calling no longer leave defenses bewildered.
There’s two choices Kelly can make:
A) Hedge his bets and continue running the same system and concepts. It would be very gutsy of him to double-down. It would be very much like the Chip Kelly of old.
B) He can adapt or die. Smash-mouth football is really the only weapon this 49ers team has in its arsenal. Kelly’s always been an innovative mind, coming up with strategies to fool defenses. This time he’ll have to do it from the trenches instead of the shotgun.
In a season with low expectations, the pressure this season really is on Kelly here. Even with a flawed roster, Kelly’s going to be the one blamed if the 49ers are stuck in the mud on offense. The problem is that his old system of spreading the football field does not mesh with the 49ers’ personnel. If he’s putting the pedal to the medal in San Francisco, he’ll likely crash and burn into a 3-13 season.
Maybe it won’t be in Week 1, but there’s a growing sense that Kelly is going to have to drastically alter his play-calling and scheming approach in 2016.
Some predictions for Kelly’s offensive evolution:
-A lot more huddles this season. Okay, not exactly a creative concept, but it would show a dramatic philosophy shift from Kelly. He’s going to quickly realize the 49ers are more equipped to win games 20-17 than they are 37-34. Pace of play and wearing out defenses can still be important without being the heartbeat of the offense.
-Instead of heavy three wide receiver sets, Kelly should experiment with packages using six offensive linemen. The 49ers’ deepest position on the roster is without question at offensive line. Joshua Garnett and Andrew Tiller are two starting-caliber linemen coming off the bench, the one luxury GM Trent Baalke has created. Like we said earlier, Kelly has more pieces to beat teams in the trenches than he does to beat them with deep passing.
-Less bubble screens in the flats and significantly more throws to the tight ends. Kelly loves this concept of using horizontal passing as a substitute for the run game, but the 49ers just don’t have enough explosive athletes at wide receiver.
-Let the pass set up the run. It’s usually the opposite in the NFL, where you pound the rock a few times to begin the game and then open things up with a deep play-action pass. But Kelly is going to be facing eight-man fronts and should use some 20-yard routes early in the game to sag linebackers and safeties off the line of scrimmage.
-Carlos Hyde should lead the NFL in carries by the end of the season. Kelly’s teams have always run the football well but it’s usually been the side dish of the offense, not the main course.
The goal with these changes is to throw the NFL back on its toes. The goal for Kelly is to return as trailblazer when it comes to jumpstarting an offense. The goal is that football can be won on offense in a variety of ways.
Kelly’s system uses other football staples teams have used for years. The sweep play he uses was created by Vince Lombardi. The spread offense is utilized by Green Bay and New England.
But change has been the name of the game for Kelly 2.0 in San Francisco, which makes it logical to think it’s coming to this offense. He’s changed practice scheduling around to appease players. He’s changed his leadership style to be more inclusive, forming a players council that he meets with when making big decisions involving the team. He’s already changed his demeanor with the media.
Hopefully he’s already realized this, but Kelly’s going to have to give his offense an entirely new look to win games this season. Change, and strategic wrinkles added from his time in Philadelphia, will set this 49ers offense up for success.