As Chip Kelly looks to establish himself in San Francisco, moral victories will be a topic of conversation in year one.
Be careful if you’re blinded by a close score in the fourth quarter.
We can agree that the 49ers did not play particularly well against the defending NFC champion Panthers, yet still found themselves trailing just 34-27 midway through the fourth quarter. Isn’t that a sign of a young team hanging around and exceeding expectations?
Not exactly.
A moral victory means the 49ers would hope to play this way again. A few more bounces go their way, and Kelly’s boys could walk away with a big upset win. Except on Sunday, the bounces did go San Francisco’s way and they still lost by 19 points. And they built some bad habits that will lead to more losses if they aren’t corrected.
The Panthers completely took away the 49ers’ formula for success: rushing the football and pressuring the quarterback. Carolina shut San Francisco down in both departments, but the Panthers kept shooting themselves in the foot, and the lingering blood has 49ers fans eager to accept subpar Week 2 showing. Slow your roll.
This is perhaps the main reason to temper excitement: Four of the 49ers’ scoring drives added up to a total of 59 yards. It was actually a stretch of three-and-outs in the second and third quarters allowed the Panthers to open up a 31-10 lead in the first place.
Besides Vance McDonald’s 75-yard catch and sprint, Kelly was gift wrapped points off of turnovers. Blaine Gabbert wasn’t marching this offense down the field. Applaud them for capitalizing, but don’t absolve them for other errors.
It’s really hard to win when Gabbert completes less than 50 percent of his throws, Carlos Hyde and the running game no-show and the wide receivers drop five passes. From start to finish, the offense really didn’t give the 49ers a chance to win on the road. We’ve said it before: Kelly’s up-tempo offense works best when the offense has more talent than the defense. That wasn’t the case Sunday and it won’t be in many of the upcoming games.
If the offense struggled more than it thrived; the defense was sent a reality check in the form of 529 yards allowed. A week after a flawless shoutout win, the unit had several breakdowns that led to big gains. Blitzes thrown at Cam Newton didn’t stop him from taking over the game (353 yards passing, four touchdowns).
The Newton part was expected and he does this against most NFL defenses. More concerning: 176 rushing yards allowed, and that was with Jonathan Stewart watching from the sideline with a hamstring injury. Jim O’Neil’s defenses had well-documented issues stopping the run in Cleveland. It’s too early to tell if bad habits are forming, or the Panthers were just out-executing the 49ers.
Of course, the defense had to deal with all of those three-and-outs. The damage could’ve been much worse. They deserve some credit for clamping down and forcing four Graham Gano field goals. Because had they not, the Panthers could’ve scored 60 points and all this talk of moral victories would be silly.
Here’s the thing to remember: if these team-wide miscues stack themselves on top of each other next week at Seattle — a real possibility — they become lingering problems, not moral victories. The loss can be pinned on both the offense and the defense today. Antoine Bethea’s day was a microcosm of the Week 2 loss: one interception, one forced fumble, but one 78-yard touchdown allowed to Greg Olsen. Turnovers don’t necessarily forgive sins.
This is not a plea for 49ers fans to disinterest themselves in the team. You definitely are allowed to be encouraged by the fact that the 49ers scored 27 points for the second consecutive week. A year ago under Jim Tomsula, this team was dead-last in scoring offense and reached 27 points just once all season. Forcing turnovers is a way the 49ers will be able to surprise some teams this season. Torrey Smith got involved with a 28-yard touchdown reception. This was not a team who laid down or fell flat on their faces. It was a better result than a Week 2 drubbing at Pittsburgh a year ago.
Bouncing back lies where GM Trent Baalke built this team: in the trenches. Though they’ve arguably been the best unit on the team, the offensive line was unable to push around the Panthers like they did the Rams. That’s going to happen against such stiff competition, but it’s what had Kelly most concerned postgame.
“That was a matchup we didn’t win,” he said via 49ers.com “We didn’t win at the line of scrimmage and when you don’t win at the line of scrimmage, you’re not going to run the ball consistently.”
It’s worth noting Week 3 at Seattle could be Gabbert’s last time with a stronghold on the quarterback position. Transitioning to Colin Kaepernick the following week at home against Dallas makes the most sense, timing wise. The week after is Thursday Night Football against the Cardinals. If not then, the 49ers could be 1-4 and in really rough shape for a Week 6 trip to Buffalo.
So if Gabbert is shaky against the Seahawks on the road, columns at this time next week could be calling for Kaepernick. And don’t expect Kelly to be very complimentary in the film room Monday morning, either.