After a Thursday evening contest in Atlanta, the San Francisco Giants will head to the airport for a five-hour flight to the west coast that every member of the team should already be dreading, none more so than pitcher Johnny Cueto.
But if Cueto is lucky, he won’t be on the Giants’ charter back to San Francisco on Thursday. Cueto will be headed elsewhere.
At this point, the Dominican Republic native’s destination remains unclear. But this much is certain: Cueto shouldn’t pitch for the Giants anymore.
For a fearless competitor like Cueto, baseball is a game of wins and losses, and over the past three months, it’s become less about the former and all about the latter.
On Monday in Atlanta, the two-time All-Star scattered just five hits over seven solid innings of work, as he kept Braves’ hitters off-balance with a dazzling shimmy routine that would make Broadway theatergoers blush. Cueto’s pick-me-up performance was exactly what a struggling Giants club needed. Did I mention they lost 9-0?
Perhaps it’s a sign of the times that a club with the seventh-highest payroll in baseball fell 20 games below .500 in an excellent start from a pitcher making a base salary of $21 million this season. Or perhaps it’s a wake-up call.
The 2017 San Francisco Giants aren’t meant for the postseason, and barring a massive roster overhaul and a stroke of remarkable fortune, neither are the 2018 Giants.
Though the Major League Baseball trade deadline is still six weeks out, it’s up to Giants’ general manager Bobby Evans to get out ahead of the curve and recognize the value a trade chip like Cueto represents. If the Giants are going to trade Cueto, they need to deal him now.
Top-end of the rotation starting pitchers are a rare commodity in baseball, and this year, the trade market could be flooded with enticing options. Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole, Minnesota’s Ervin Santana and Oakland’s Sonny Gray are three of the names who could become available in the coming weeks, as could Atlanta’s R.A. Dickey, Kansas City’s Jason Vargas and the Mets’ Matt Harvey.
With each passing start, Cueto’s potential value to a new franchise diminishes. Because pitchers only impact one out of every five games, there’s an inherent need for contenders to begin acquiring assets for their rotation as soon as possible. The sooner Evans can reach an agreement, the more of an impact Cueto can make.
A late June or early July trade involving Cueto is the type of forward-thinking move the Giants’ fan base is begging its front office to make. After the Giants’ reluctance to acquire a closer at the 2016 deadline haunted them, Evans’ failure to properly address the team’s outfield situation set the stage for its downfall this season. An early move involving Cueto would indicate Evans is willing to embrace a proactive mindset, which is the mentality that has evaded San Francisco over the past calendar year.
Aside from beating their competitors to the market, the Giants also have incentive to deal Cueto immediately because his contract is cumbersome for a franchise that will be tasked with reallocating its resources as it reevaluates its roster composition.
If the Giants allow Cueto to make two or three more starts, and he fails to showcase the control and poise he did on Monday, San Francisco could be making an $80-plus million mistake.
For much of Cueto’s career, the right-hander has been brilliant, posting sub-3.00 earned run averages in five different seasons. However, Cueto is 31 years old, and it’s entirely possible his best days are behind him. Entering his start against the Braves, Cueto had registered a 4.57 ERA over 14 starts and had already surrendered more home runs this season (16) than he did over the course of his entire 2016 campaign.
If Cueto, a pitcher driven by his competitive spirit, grows tired of the Giants’ losing ways, a fluctuation in performance could decrease his market value this offseason, when he has the opportunity to opt out of his six-year contract.
When Cueto signed with the Giants for six years and $130 million, it was assumed he would opt out after the 2017 season in the event that he could entertain larger offers based on two full seasons in San Francisco. Now, with an ERA hovering above 4.00 and the prospect of pitching for a last-place team for the rest of the season, Cueto could have a shorter list of free agent opportunities, opt in for the remainder of his contract, and put San Francisco on the hook for $80 million over the next four years.
Is Johnny Cueto past his prime as a pitcher, or is he still worth more than $80 million through 2021? Only time will tell, but for a franchise that has wasted far too much money on under-performing veterans this season, an opportunity to rebuild is beginning to present itself.
There are contending teams, namely the Houston Astros and New York Yankees, who are capable of compiling a package of prospects that could fortify the Giants’ farm system and help the franchise build for the future. With the direction San Francisco is headed and the dearth of big-time prospects in the team’s Minor League system, there’s no doubt it’s time to listen.
Eventually, Evans’ phone will ring. Whether it’s tomorrow, next week or the day of the deadline, at least one franchise is going to make an offer for Cueto. Though it’s highly unlikely Cueto is already on his way out before the Giants return to AT&T Park, if they’re uncertain about his long-term future with the team, there’s never been a better time to sell.
If Evans handles this the right way, he’ll pick up his phone before Cueto is back on the mound, and the Giants will begin to rebuild a foundation that, for the foreseeable and immediate future, looks damaged beyond repair.