The 2009 Washington Nationals lost 103 games. The 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates dropped 105 games. In 2011, 2012 and 2013, the Houston Astros lost at least 106 games each season, bottoming out in 2013 with a stunning final record of 51-111.
This year’s San Francisco Giants? They might be that bad. But even if the Giants don’t lose 111, 105 or even just 103 games, they might be even worse.
To whom much is given, much is expected, and this year, San Francisco’s front office had a $172 million payroll, the league’s seventh highest figure, at its disposal.
Those Nationals, those Pirates and each of those Astros teams all began their seasons without the expectation of competing for a playoff spot, much less a World Series title. During the five-year stretch between 2009 and 2013 in which a Major League team lost at least 103 games, all five of those teams began the year with a payroll that ranked among the bottom eight teams in the league. That’s not the case for the San Francisco squad Bobby Evans built this year.
The 2017 San Francisco Giants started the season with nine players on their 25-man roster commanding salaries of at least $10 million. The team’s projected ace, Madison Bumgarner, is slated to receive $7 million, while its second best player, third baseman Eduardo Nunez, will bring in just $4.2 million. Bargains.
To suggest the Giants had visions of taking back the National League West crown from the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers when Spring Training began would be putting it lightly. This franchise knows what the top of the mountain looks like, and its management felt its roster was designed to race toward the summit.
That’s why a comparison between the Giants and the 2009 Nationals, the 2010 Pirates or any of the three embarrassing Astros rosters isn’t linear. Those franchises practically anticipated 95-to-100 losses. This Giants team expected 70.
Carlos Pena was the highest-paid player on the 2013 Houston Astros. He made $2.9 million. Half of the Giants’ roster is making over $4 million this season.
Imagine a premier race horse standing at the gate of the Kentucky Derby. Now imagine the gates opening, the race commencing, and the horse bucking its jockey onto the track. That’s the 2017 San Francisco Giants.
Fewer than 150 teams in Major League history have lost 100 games in a season, and the Giants are well on their way. Through the first 75 contests of 2017, San Francisco has been defeated a staggering 48 times, putting the franchise on pace to lose 104 games. The worst team in Giants history, the 1985 squad, finished with exactly 100 losses, and for the first time in 32 seasons, a team that finished 33.0 games back of the first-place Dodgers looks like it might have some company.
Because the Giants began the season with the seventh-highest payroll in baseball, a 100-loss San Francisco roster would create a class of its own.
Over the past decade, 16 teams that began a season with top-10 payrolls have finished in last place in their respective divisions, while 10 teams have finished with 100 losses in a season. If the Giants hit the century mark, they would join the 2008 and 2010 Seattle Mariners in an undistinguished Venn diagram featuring teams that started with a top-10 payroll and teams that also lost 100 games.
Though owners, particularly in major markets, have begun to spend their money more willingly in the past five seasons, neither of those Mariners teams had a payroll above $118 million. In fact, both of those teams posted the ninth-highest Opening Day payrolls in Major League Baseball.
If the Giants drop 100 games, it would be the first time a team with an Opening Day payroll of more than $150 million has ever lost more than 93 games. While there aren’t advanced analytics that prove deeper pockets will lead to deeper playoff runs, at the very least, outspending their peers should keep San Francisco from being this bad. Except it hasn’t.
And that’s why the Giants are squarely in the discussion for the most disappointing team of the decade.
Should the Giants finish the season with 97, 98 or even 99 losses, yes, there’s a legitimate discussion to be had comparing them to other teams that would have been better off investing their money with Bernie Madoff (sorry, Mets). But if San Francisco hits the magic number, call off the debate.
From 2013-2015, the Philadelphia Phillies finished in last place in the National League East in three consecutive seasons. In 2015, the Phillies ended with a mark of 63-99, narrowly avoiding the dubious distinction of joining the 100-loss club. Armed with the ninth-highest payroll in the big leagues, Philadelphia was still paying Cole Hamels and Chase Utley, but even by Spring Training, every projection pinned the club to a fourth or fifth-place finish in their division. The City of Brotherly Love was a city that knew the Phillies wouldn’t be lovable.
In 2012, the Boston Red Sox finished in last place in the American League East, posting a final record of 69-93. That season, Boston began the year with the third-highest payroll in baseball at $173 million, and perhaps that Red Sox team offers the best comparison for this year’s Giants squad. The year before the Red Sox lost 93 games, suffered through an epic second half collapse, responded by signing Mark Melancon in the offseason and then watched well-paid veterans fail to play up to their career norms (Sound familiar?).
While other teams with large payrolls, like the 2013 White Sox (63-99, eighth-highest payroll) and the 2011 Twins (63-99, ninth-highest payroll), were utter disappointments, it’s those Phillies teams and the 2012 Red Sox that remain the most memorable washouts of the last decade. Now, the Giants are in position to add to the debate, but if they lose 100, forget it.
With a payroll of $172 million, a roster loaded with veteran talent including the likes of Buster Posey, Johnny Cueto and Hunter Pence, there’s no excuse for San Francisco’s dreadful nosedive.
In 2014, San Francisco was on cloud nine, having won its third World Series in a span of five seasons. Three years later, the franchise was hoping for a soft landing before executing a trip back to the top, and now, it’s as if the Giants’ parachute never deployed.
With an offense that ranks 27th in batting average, 27th in runs scored and dead last in home runs, a pitching staff with an ERA in the bottom half of the league and a back-end of the bullpen that still hasn’t solved its 2016 woes, it’s fair to say San Francisco is heading nowhere fast. But if the Giants lose 100 games, they’ll at least sprint headfirst into the history books.
Over the next month, this Giants team has the chance to reset the standard that’s been created this season, as San Francisco will play 15 of its next 18 games, and 21 of its next 27 against teams with sub .500 records. To be the worst, you have to get beat by the worst, and the Giants have an opportunity to test that theory.
Though those Nationals, Pirates and Astros were bad, their on-field missteps didn’t force their managements to reevaluate their futures and their missions. For those teams, losing was a part of a process, and one that’s eventually led to positive results.
For this year’s Giants team, there is no process and their is no end game. A 100-loss season would simply be a shocking, unimaginable failure, complete with an unparalleled fall from grace.