Two and a half weeks separate Major League Baseball from the trade deadline, and per usual, the San Francisco Giants are expected to be active.
In previous years, Giants’ management has geared up for possible playoff pushes by acquiring left-handed reliever Javier Lopez (2010), power-hitter Carlos Beltran (2011) outfielder Hunter Pence (2012), starter Jake Peavy (2014) and most recently, southpaw Matt Moore and third baseman Eduardo Nunez (2016).
This season, though, Giants’ general manager Bobby Evans’ phone line will buzz for entirely different reasons, as San Francisco carries the second-worst record in Major League Baseball out of the All-Star break.
At the outset of the year, Evans and the Giants had visions of competing with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the National League West division crown. When the second half of the season begins on Friday evening in San Diego, the Giants will attempt to work their back from a 27.0 game deficit. That is not a typo.
As the Dodgers raced to the top of the division with a remarkable 61-29 mark through their first 90 games, the Giants crumbled into a ditch, and there’s no sign the landslide will end anytime soon.
Armed with the seventh-highest payroll in baseball, the Giants are uniquely positioned because their dreadful demise has taken place in such a rapid manner. No one expected San Francisco’s pitching staff to implode, its veterans to underperform and many of its core players to regress at the same time, but that’s exactly what’s happened in 2017.
After a dismal second half of last season, the Giants are now 64-98 over their past 162 games, a sure fire sign in most markets that a front office is ready to purchase dynamite, and blow a roster into pieces. But with San Francisco’s current roster construction, the Giants aren’t built for a rebuild, and there’s a growing sentiment that the front office feels the team isn’t far off from contending in the future.
Like any struggling franchise, the Giants know changes are imminent, but there’s certain pieces Evans and Co. won’t part with.
Catcher Buster Posey and left-handed ace Madison Bumgarner aren’t going anywhere. That’s non-negotiable. Shortstop Brandon Crawford? Even in a down year, the Giants aren’t willing to part with a left-handed hitter who should be a perennial Gold Glover at a critical defensive position. Second baseman Joe Panik? That’s where the discussion gets interesting, because Panik’s contract is team-friendly and he’s still just 26 years old. As a front office, it would take a favorable, prospect-loaded proposition to swing the pendulum for a potential trade, but it’s not out of the question.
After that quartet, though, all reports indicate the Giants are willing to engage in serious discussions for the remainder of their roster.
That includes first baseman Brandon Belt, who like Crawford, Panik and Posey, is a homegrown product with a great glove who has experience on a championship team. Belt certainly projects as a member of the core group Giants’ management could build around, and the six-year, $79 million extension San Francisco offered him prior to the 2016 season suggests the franchise believes in Belt in a long-term capacity.
But when trade discussions inevitably arise, be it in the next three weeks, or during the 2017-2018 offseason, Belt likely won’t be afforded the same coat of protective armor his peers in the Giants’ infield have as a shield.
The difference between Belt and players like Bumgarner and Posey is obvious: He’s not a superstar. But what separates Belt from Crawford, or even Panik?
Ultimately, there’s a number of factors, but it comes down to the fact Belt will be viewed by the Giants as an easier player to part with, by opposing teams as a more valuable commodity on the open market, and because the Giants have possible replacements within their organization capable of taking over at first base.
Though Belt’s .243 average in 2017 is 26 points below his career mark, his .349 on-base percentage is still 16th among MLB first basemen and ranks equal or better to highly-regarded first basemen like Chicago White Sox power-hitter Jose Abreu, and Los Angeles Dodgers’ rookie Cody Bellinger.
While Belt’s detractors continually point to his low average with two outs and runners in scoring position (.226 this season) as his greatest deficiency, his 16 home runs are two shy of his career-high, his 44 RBIs rank 12th among MLB first basemen and lead the Giants and perhaps most importantly, his 54.5 runs created places Belt 11th among MLB first basemen, ahead of All-Stars like Bellinger and Oakland’s Yonder Alonso.
Those power numbers –especially coming from a corner infielder with an elite glove– are coveted by organizations, including the Giants, and would make Belt an excellent fit on a team in need of another middle of the order left-handed bat.
At 29 years old, Belt is still in the prime of his career, and if he’s in a hitter-friendly ballpark, it’s entirely possible those flyouts to the deepest parts of the yard at AT&T Park will turn into extra base hits elsewhere.
As the Giants take inventory of their entire organization –from the Major League club down to their rookie ball teams– this summer, it’s also obvious that if the Giants were to lose a player like Crawford, Panik or Belt, the void left at first base would be the easiest to replace.
The most promising shortstop in the Giants’ system is Ryan Howard, who’s still a raw prospect competing for their A-affiliate in San Jose. Their most promising second baseman might be Miguel Gomez, who received a call-up from AA to the Giants last week, but Gomez is still a project defensively and likely isn’t ready to be a plug-and-play option if San Francisco parted with Panik.
At first base, though, the Giants have a plethora of different options they could explore, including 23-year-old Ryder Jones, 29-year-old Jae-gyun Hwang and their top overall prospect, 23-year-old Chris Shaw.
The No. 86 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, Shaw is a left-handed power-hitter who’s already slugged nine home runs in 41 games since being called up to AAA Sacramento earlier this year. Even though he’s not a rangy defender, Shaw has a bit of positional flexibility in that he can play first base and in a corner outfield spot, but he could provide a suitable replacement should the Giants give up Belt.
If the Giants view Shaw as a potential first baseman of the future, the franchise would actually stand to gain significantly from trading Belt. Because his contract is still reasonable, his power numbers are on the rise and he’s a valuable two-way asset, San Francisco could put a high price tag on Belt for potential trade suitors, and draw offers that could benefit the franchise over the long haul.
Because the Giants won’t contend in 2017, and will be hard-pressed to seriously compete in 2018, shopping Belt in exchange for multiple pitching prospects, outfielders or other quality assets could pay dividends down the line for San Francisco.
Though Belt is still a part of the core worth building around, if the Giants receive serious offers that have the potential to reignite their future, Belt is also a part of the core the franchise is unlikely to deem “untouchable.”