On July 30, 2015, the San Francisco Giants shipped outfielder Adam Duvall to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for starting pitcher Mike Leake.
That trade alone offers San Francisco a rationale for turning Mac Williamson into a regular starter over the Giants’ 20 remaining regular season games.
There are a multitude of reasons for the Giants to give Williamson a shot to impress in the final month of the season, but essentially, it all boils down to a lesson San Francisco learned when it gave away Duvall.
Over the past two seasons, Duvall has crushed 64 home runs –with 33 coming in 2016 and 31 already this year– and provided Cincinnati with serviceable outfield defense that allows the Reds to justify keeping his bat in the lineup.
A .241 hitter last year and a .251 hitter this year, Duvall is a classic boom or bust power hitter who racks up doubles and home runs, and also strikes out at a prolific rate. He’s exactly the type of power threat the Giants lack in their lineup, and exactly the type of everyday left fielder San Francisco’s been desperately searching for since Barry Bonds hung up his cleats.
At the time Duvall was traded, he had just three home runs to his name, and had yet to receive a regular opportunity in the Giants’ outfield. Over 73 at-bats in 2014, Duvall hit just .192 and struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances. In 2015, he wasn’t much better, hitting .219 in 64 at-bats with the Reds after the Giants dealt him for Leake. Should the Giants have known that Duvall was going to turn into a middle-of-the-order force? There are arguments on both sides of his case, but the prolific numbers Duvall posted with San Francisco’s AAA affiliates in 2014 and 2015 should have tipped someone off.
Williamson’s AAA power numbers don’t compare to those Duvall posted, but as prospects, their trajectories bear similarities. Both players were college draftees and late bloomers who needed four seasons to reach the AAA level, and neither player ever hit .300 in the Minor Leagues (although Duvall did hit .298 in 2014). Williamson and Duvall each struck out a ton, with Williamson striking out a bit more and hitting fewer home runs than Duvall.
The Giants shuttled Duvall back and forth between AAA and San Francisco in 2014, and Williamson is no stranger to being taxied between stadiums.
Of course, they’re not the exact same players, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine Williamson ever producing at the same rate Duvall has thus far. But based on the playing time San Francisco gave Duvall, there was no way for the Giants to be certain that Duvall was this capable, either.
With 20 games left in the regular season, San Francisco has no incentive to play Denard Span or Hunter Pence on a regular basis. The Giants’ only remaining goal is to avoid losing 100 games, and regardless of whether Pence or Williamson starts, the final loss tally shouldn’t vary much.
Prior to trading Duvall, San Francisco had only given him 18 career starts. As Williamson’s third seasons with big league service time winds down, he’s preparing to start his 50th game on Friday, which is hardly enough to make big-picture determinations about his potential.
As the end of the year approaches, the Giants have a perfect opportunity to evaluate Williamson against Major League pitching on a consistent basis. Rookie Austin Slater looks promising, but the Giants only want him to play every other day as he returns from a hip injury. Jarrett Parker has played well since returning from the disabled list, but he’s sidelined with an oblique injury that may prevent him from becoming a more consistent option. San Francisco already knows what Gorkys Hernandez can offer, and its two veterans, Span and Pence, are under contract for next season.
Since earning a September call up, Williamson is 5-for-10 with a pair of doubles and this monstrous demonstration of raw power.
Bye Bye Baby pic.twitter.com/kHduiQHJFi
— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) September 7, 2017
That swing on its own is enough to pique a team’s interest, and if the Giants are still haunted by surrendering Duvall, they’ll allow Williamson to continue showcasing it.
I’m not here to suggest that Williamson will ever become the power hitting threat that Duvall has evolved into. In fact, I’m not certain Williamson will ever become a regular starter at the Major League level. But given the trajectory of the Giants’ season, their lack of middle of the order punch, and Williamson’s raw potential, there’s no better time to find out than right now.