As the World Series draws to a close, general managers throughout Major League Baseball are preparing to upgrade their rosters and the Giants’ Bobby Evans will soon be feeling the heat.
After significant changes to a coaching staff loaded with well-respected and in some cases, beloved assistants, the onus is on Evans and the rest of the Giants’ front office to ensure that the team’s roster undergoes a similar overhaul.
Instead of committing to a full-fledged rebuild, San Francisco appears determined to reshape and retool its roster in order to contend in 2018. If that commitment sticks, expect the Giants to make significant splashes this offseason, whether those come through the free agent market or via trades. Because of the money San Francisco owes to various members of the team’s veteran core, Evans must be creative in his pursuit of talent upgrades, and could be forced to make unpopular decisions and part with some of the Giants’ established assets in order to position the franchise for long-term success.
Though the Giants have a variety of ways to turn roster upgrades into realities, here are four ways San Francisco’s front office can begin the process of building for the future.
1. Acquire a two-way threat in center field
The Giants have already approached Denard Span about shifting to left field next season, which is an important first step in clearing the way for an outfield acquisition. Though Span is owed $11 million in 2018 and a $4 million buyout in 2019, San Francisco cannot expect to improve its atrocious outfield defense next season without finding an upgrade in center field.
In 2017, Span finished 208th out of 210 outfielders in Outs Above Average, a new defensive metric that measures the cumulative effect of all individual catch probabilities an outfielder has been credited with. According to OAA, the only two outfielders with a worse performance this season were the Blue Jays’ Melky Cabrera and the Braves’ Matt Kemp.
While acquiring a defensive upgrade is a start, it’s not the only priority for San Francisco when scouring the market for available center fielders. Though Span’s slash line of .272/.329/.427 wasn’t a liability for a leadoff hitter, the Giants’ most obvious deficiencies are power hitting and speed.
There are two routes San Francisco can take to find an upgrade in center field. The Giants could commit to a free agent like Lorenzo Cain on a contract they might later regret, or they could attempt to find a temporary solution by signing a free agent like Rajai Davis or trading for an outfielder like Adam Jones. Cain is on the wrong side of 30, and would likely force the Giants’ hand and require them to offer a three or four-year deal to a player whose power and speed may soon decline. Nevertheless, he’s a significant defensive upgrade (Cain finished 5th in OAA) and he’s coming off a season in which he registered the highest on-base percentage (.363) of his career.
Instead of pursuing Cain, the Giants could also look to Rangers’ free agent Carlos Gomez, a decent defensive center fielder who also posted a career-high on-base percentage (.340) but is also on the wrong side of 30. Or, the Giants could look at more temporary options like Davis or Jones, which would allow San Francisco to continue grooming its center fielders of the future.
It’s possible highly regarded prospect Steven Duggar could arrive in the Major Leagues as soon as next season while Bryan Reynolds, the franchise’s top overall pick in 2016, could force his way into the conversation by 2019. If the Giants are confident in either of those players becoming top two-way center fielders, then perhaps acquiring Davis or Jones is a more tenable approach. Davis is hardly a compelling name at this point, so Jones, Tampa Bay’s Kevin Kiermaier or Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton could turn out to be short-term solutions via trades that have a chance to play their way into long-term consideration.
The best-case scenario for San Francisco might be acquiring Miami stud Christian Yelich, who isn’t nearly as high-profile of a name as Giancarlo Stanton, but could provide the Giants with a building block for years to come. However, it’s unclear if the new Marlins’ regime would be willing to part with Yelich.
2. Add 60 home runs to the lineup
If Evans wants to kill two birds with one stone, he could acquire a two-way center fielder who has the chance to hit 20-to-30 home runs playing home games at AT&T Park.
Of course, like every suggestion, that’s easier said than done, especially because center fielders aren’t often prototypical power threats. While San Francisco finished in dead last in home runs this season, every upgrade counts as the Giants must find a way to keep up with their contemporaries around the game.
The Giants don’t need to lead Major League Baseball in home runs, and to compete, they probably don’t even have to finish in the top half. The team’s top three starters of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija should pitch well enough to keep San Francisco in the majority of games it plays, provided the lineup can score at an increased clip.
But after finishing with just 128 home runs this season, the Giants have a demonstrated need for power, regardless of whether Evans says the front office is prioritizing defense this offseason. With 60 more home runs to spread around, the Giants still would have finished just 23rd in baseball, but a healthy Brandon Belt could vault the team into the top 20.
To add 60 home runs, the Giants could trade for Stanton and give Bumgarner a few more pinch hit appearances. Or, they could sign J.D. Martinez to play left field, dump Span’s salary in a trade for a different center fielder like Kiermaier of Yelich and all of a sudden, the Giants have hit that target. A more realistic approach might be trading for a center fielder that can hit 20 home runs, adding a third baseman or left fielder that can hit 20-to-25, and adding another position player that can hit 15-to-20.
San Francisco could attempt to address its power shortage by signing Mike Moustakas or Josh Donaldson to fill its hole at third base and then counting on a new center fielder to make up the difference, but unless the Giants complete a blockbuster deal to acquire Stanton or break the bank with Martinez or Justin Upton, the best path to adding 60 home runs could be incremental upgrades at three-to-four positions on the diamond.
3. Re-sign Nick Hundley
If the Giants are able to complete a roster overhaul that helps them contend for a wildcard berth or even a division title in 2018, Evans will have a serious shot at winning executive of the year.
Evans’ case can be made by the fact that San Francisco finished just 64-98 this season and has just one free agent who could depart the roster. And while everything about a last place finish screams “Let the players walk,” the only player the Giants have who can “walk” is a player worth bringing back.
Nick Hundley became immensely popular in the Giants’ clubhouse this season, taking home the Willie Mac Award and routinely earning praise for his upbeat spirit and competitive nature in the midst of a horrific season. But aside from what he does off the field, Hundley was critical to keeping the Giants together on it, as the backup catcher wound up playing in 100 games and gave Buster Posey a few months to rest his legs.
Hundley is a right-handed power threat off the bench, which is something every team in baseball could use, and he’s also a more skilled defensive catcher than he’s given credit for. San Francisco’s coaching staff helped Hundley improve his craft behind the plate this year, but the staff had a willing listener who could have tuned out what the tips they were offering given the Giants’ struggles.
While Hundley will almost certainly test the free agent market and could command an offer from a team looking to guarantee at least a platoon or a part-time starting role, the Giants should do everything (reasonable) in their power to bring him back. If Posey suffers an injury, Hundley can provide the Giants with average play as a replacement. If Belt suffers an injury, Hundley can slide behind the plate and Posey can man first base.
At this point in time, catching prospect Aramis Garcia is likely a year-plus away from breaking into the Major Leagues, and after an awful season at AAA, it’s unlikely the Giants can rely on Trevor Brown as a Posey backup. Instead of scouring the market for a suitable replacement, signing Hundley to a two-year deal that’s top-heavy could be the right play because it would allow San Francisco to deal him for a bullpen arm if it’s contending and if Garcia is ready to play in 2019.
4. Add a proven lefty in the bullpen
Okay, so there’s a caveat to this one. Evans could also acquire a proven righty in the bullpen, and the Giants could be in a great position moving forward. But for the sake of balance, let’s lay out the ways another left-handed arm could help the back end of the team’s bullpen.
Heading into the 2018 season, the top three pitchers in San Francisco’s bullpen are Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson, and Hunter Strickland. While the Giants might feel strong internally about those three arms, it’s not likely the trio is going to inspire plenty of confidence from the team’s fan base heading into the 2018 season.
Melancon’s pronator injury might be an easy fix, but there’s almost no precedent to base it off of. The surgery was successful, but there’s no way of knowing how Melancon’s arm will respond post-surgery until he begins throwing again in December. Dyson’s roller coaster ride of a year was filled with flashes of brilliance, but also reminders of how quickly he can lose everything. And as for Strickland, a ballooned walk total coupled with the fact he hasn’t yet demonstrated outstanding control of his offspeed pitches leaves room for concern.
Nevertheless, the Giants believe that trio can form an effective back-end relay team, and they’re also pleased with the way Kyle Crick developed and Cory Gearrin came on in 2017. The issue, for San Francisco, is that its left-handed options were spotty and at best, inconsistent. When Will Smith fell victim to Tommy John surgery in Spring Training, it threw a wrench in the Giants’ plans and forced them to rely on Steven Okert and Josh Osich far too often. Neither Okert or Osich would have been good enough to pitch on a playoff-bound team, and both should have uphill battles to climb to make the Giants’ roster next season.
With all of that in mind, the Giants’ current plans center around a healthy Smith, who may not be ready to go until May, and perhaps Ty Blach, who could be forced to start the year in the bullpen if Chris Stratton seizes the No. 5 spot in the Giants’ rotation. How Smith performs post-surgery, and how Blach performs in a full-time bullpen role, are both question marks, and the Giants don’t have solid answers behind that duo in Osich and Okert.
The Dodgers’ Tony Watson, the Rockies’ Jake McGee are both options, and if the Astros’ Francisco Liriano is willing to transition to a full-time bullpen role, he could be a name the Giants consider as well. Ultimately, though, San Francisco should seriously think about adding at least one more proven arm to this unit.