Just like that, the 2017 49ers are C.J. Beathard’s team.
Kyle Shanahan’s hook was quick when it came to pulling Brian Hoyer midway through the second quarter of the 49ers’ 26-24 loss to the Redskins on Sunday, and the returns were almost immediate. San Francisco punted on four consecutive possessions with Hoyer calling the signals, running just 18 plays during that time. After making the switch Beathard, the 49ers punted two more times all game, while putting up 24 points and looking more fluid on offense than they had at any point during the previous five contests.
The difference in play between the quarterbacks was so stark, that it has already caused some to speculate — perhaps prematurely — on whether Beathard could actually be San Francisco’s quarterback of the future.
A third-round rookie QB earning significant playing time is a rarity in the NFL, but isn’t unprecedented. In fact, it might surprise you how well third-round rookies have fared over the past decade.
Over the past 10 years, 11 third-round rookies have taken snaps during the regular season, collectively posting a somewhat average 75.6 passer rating. That number actually improves to 83.2 when we remove the likes of Connor Cook, Kevin O’Connell, Matt Barkley, and Sean Mannion, each of which played less than a single game’s worth of snaps during their rookie campaigns.
The obvious stand-out of this group is Russell Wilson, who began the 2012 season as a third stringer that appeared to be a 50-50 shot to make Seattle’s roster, but ended up as the team’s franchise quarterback, not missing a start in six seasons.
Mike Glennon is the other notable example in this group, who impressed in 13 starts with a shaky Tampa Bay squad in 2013, tossing 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Glennon’s performance did enough to earn him the starting job for the 2014 season, eventually leading to a truly bonkers three-year, $45 million contract from the Bears this offseason.
If you’re looking for recent examples, just last season we saw two third-rounders perform better than expected in the Browns’ Cody Kessler (92.3 rating in eight starts) and the Patriots’ Jacoby Brissett (83.9 rating in three games, two starts).Of the players on this list, only Trent Edwards posted a passer rating under 75 (70.4).
This is even more surprising when you compare the passer ratings of second-round rookies over the past 10 seasons, who have posted a collective rating of 67.8, and included a couple of high profile flops like Geno Smith and Jimmy Clausen, not to mention 2017 second-round pick DeShone Kizer, who has already tossed nine interceptions in just five starts this season.
Odds are that C.J. Beathard is not going to be the quarterback of the 49ers’ future, and that he will likely fall back to Earth this weekend against the Cowboys after his truly inspiring performance last weekend. But history shows us that it’s not unprecedented for a third-rounder to grab the reigns of a franchise under the right circumstances, and that average play from Beathard would actually be in line with what we’ve seen over the past decade.
At the very least, we should be able to confidently expect that Beathard will be an upgrade over Hoyer, whose 2017 passer rating would’ve been the second worst on the list above of quarterbacks that started more than one game. As long as Beathard can clear that bar, San Francisco will have the opportunity to win some games, and after what we’ve seen over the past two seasons, that in itself will be a breath of fresh air.
All the facts and figures used in this piece were gathered using the analytics platform called Looker. Make sure to check them out for user friendly dashboards, visualizations, and data analysis.