There’s no good reason for Shohei Otani to sign with the San Francisco Giants.
Otani wants to pitch and hit, which makes him an ideal candidate to start for an American League team and double as a designated hitter.
The 23-year-old two-way superstar is already losing out on millions of dollars by leaving Japan before the age of 25 to pursue his Major League dream. While other teams can offer more for his services, the Giants are limited to using their $300,000 bonus pool to sign Otani.
The reality of the situation appears clear. Otani loves baseball more than money, and desires to play on the biggest stage. Though no one has an accurate grasp of where Otani would like to sign, if there’s one thing that’s true about players who love baseball, they also love winning. A lot.
Does Otani want to play in the World Series? Probably. If Otani takes a glance at the standings, it’s hard to imagine him thinking the Giants are headed there soon.
If Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball are successful in their endeavors to extend a posting system that would allow Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, to receive a $20 million posting fee for allowing Otani to leave for the United States, we’ll soon find out if the Giants have a realistic opportunity to sign a player who appears to be a transcendent talent.
In all likelihood, a Giants team that finished 64-98 will soon learn that Otani wants to play for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, or worse, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Otani could be the type of athlete who doesn’t care about living in a comfy coastal city, and decide that playing for the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs gives him the best chance to win immediately. If Otani did want to live in the Bay Area, it would actually make more sense for him to play for the Oakland A’s than the Giants, because he could start every fifth day and still hold a regular spot in the lineup.
There are thousands of reasons why Otani should balk at the idea of playing for the Giants. But there’s one reason he might actually like it: Otani would be a savior.
Not quite the savior that Barry Bonds was when he signed as a free agent ahead of the 1993 season, and not the same type of savior Buster Posey became while leading the Giants to three World Series titles, but at this juncture in time, Otani could usher San Francisco toward a much brighter future.
While the factors guiding Otani to other franchises are obvious, it’s also entirely possible that when Otani was coming of age in Japan, he took note of the Giants’ rise to glory. When San Francisco won the World Series in 2010, Otani was still an impressionable 15-year-old teenager. By the time the Giants claimed their third title in five years, Otani was a 19-year-old star in Japan with visions of playing stateside. Otani might be a Giants fan, and for a player who could soon have 30 suitors, that matters.
Consider, for a moment, how a player of Otani’s caliber would change the franchise. Then consider the fact the Giants would only pay him the minimum salary in 2018.
Otani is a low-cost superstar, a pitcher who could slot in at the top of the team’s rotation and form a big three with Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. The Giants’ pitching depth would instantly become the envy of other contenders, and be nearly impossible to match in a five or seven-game playoff series. Signing Otani is akin to acquiring a budding ace, and doing so for next to nothing.
While Otani’s dominance on the mound in Japan is well-documented, it’s still unclear how a National League team like the Giants would benefit from his skills at the plate. Otani has plenty of raw power, slugging 22 home runs in just 382 plate appearances as a 21-year-old, but his playing time in a National League outfield is challenging to gauge.
Could Otani start in the field once every five games as a fourth outfielder? Would the Giants use him as a late-game defensive replacement to get his bat in the lineup in critical situations? Would Otani be restricted to pinch hitting due to the physical demands of his role as a starting pitcher? It’s unlikely the Giants have given much thought to how they would slip Otani into their lineup, but he certainly has plenty to offer.
Otani is the rare prospect who is practically universally accepted as a surefire Major League star, but for a Giants team coming off a fifth-place finish, he’s not capable of turning the franchise around on his own. Otani won’t fit in as a leadoff hitter and center fielder, and he’s not a power-hitting third baseman. The Giants have more pressing needs than adding another top-end of the rotation starter, but if Otani shows interest, the Giants could add a potentially transcendent piece to a team desperately searching for younger talent.
In terms of all the players San Francisco could acquire this offseason in its push to contend by 2018, no player provides more value than Otani. His skill set and intrigue would sell tickets, he’s the cheapest player on the market, and ultimately, Otani’s presence would make other Giants’ players more expendable. Could San Francisco finally swing a deal for an impact bat? Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore surely look more expendable if Otani fits in at the top of a rotation.
With Otani on the roster, the Giants would instantly become the team no one wants to face in October. Though it’s hard to fathom a 64-98 team talking about the postseason, the money San Francisco would save by acquiring a franchise-changing player like Otani would be freed up to address other needs. If general manager Bobby Evans pushes the right buttons, it’s conceivable Otani could position the Giants for success for years to come.
There’s a “savior” aspect already attached to Otani’s potential. By signing with San Francisco instead of New York or Los Angeles, Otani could start a turnaround that takes the Giants from worst to first.
Sure, Otani doesn’t have many (perhaps any) reasons to sign with the Giants. But if it happens, you can delete the eulogies written for the Giants’ golden era, and imagine a future centered around this superstar.