AT&T Park is where power hitters go to die.
Though that statement might not be entirely true, it’s the narrative that exists in the post-Barry Bonds baseball world. It’s why even the most optimistic San Francisco Giants’ fans have concerns about the franchise being able to acquire top power hitters, and why Miami Marlins’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton might not be an ideal fit in the cavernous confines of China Basin.
While members of the Giants’ front office may have their own reservations about trading for a superstar with 10 years and $295 million left on his contract, general manager Bobby Evans and Co. have reason to be encouraged that Stanton’s power might play better than expected at AT&T Park.
ESPN’s Dan Szymborski ran his ZiPS projection system to estimate how Stanton would fare for a variety of different teams over the next decade, and while there are certain ballparks that might appear more favorable, the Giants project as an intriguing landing spot. In fact, of the 10 teams Szymborski ran projections for, Stanton’s estimated WAR of 46.2 over the next 10 seasons with the Giants is the second-highest mark in that category.
To this point in his career, the 28-year-old Stanton has already proven he can handle the power alleys at AT&T Park. In 108 bats in San Francisco, he’s clobbered nine home runs and posted a .676 slugging percentage, which highlights the type of middle-of-the-order might the Giants are desperate for.
While the projections are especially favorable over the next few seasons, Stanton will command a salary of at least $25 million annually through 2027, when his numbers aren’t exactly reminiscent of an MVP candidate. Nevertheless, the Giants are most concerned with how Stanton will fare in the immediate future, as the team has Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and several other key players under contract. If San Francisco is serious about making a playoff push in 2018, Stanton’s projected totals of 46 home runs and 115 RBI would provide an incredible impact that no other player in baseball is capable of offering.