Imagine a race car sitting a lap behind the field entering the final pit stop, and somehow managing to compete for a checkered flag.
Admittedly, I don’t know much about NASCAR (I never will), but it’s a comparison I would use for a San Francisco Giants team that hopes to contend just a season after finishing in last place in the National League West with a 64-98 record. It’s almost impossible to imagine the Giants working their way back toward the front of the pack in such a short span of time, but a pit crew led by general manager Bobby Evans and vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean is attempting to overhaul the engine this offseason.
The Giants are heavily in the mix for the 2017 National League MVP, Giancarlo Stanton, and they’re also reportedly one of just seven finalists for two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. Stanton’s potential impact on the Giants has been covered ad nauseam, but it’s much more difficult to project how Ohtani would fare with San Francisco, or with any Major League club for that matter.
There’s no modern precedent for gauging how a player like Ohtani would handle the rigors of a 162-game season if the Giants signed him to serve as a member of their starting rotation and as a regular outfielder, but that doesn’t mean analysts haven’t tried. Both Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs and Eno Sarris of The Athletic have written about 2018 projections compiled by ESPN’s Dan Szymborski and what they mean for Ohtani’s future, but I think any analyst would surmise there’s a greater margin for error when calculating Ohtani’s potential stat lines than there are with traditional players.
To start with, no executives have revealed exactly how their club would use Ohtani, and how his determination to remain a two-way star would impact how they handled the frequency of his starts as a pitcher and as a position player if he struggled for an extended period of time. To make matters more uncertain, it’s even more difficult for National League teams to ascertain how they would manage Ohtani’s playing time because they don’t have the benefit of plugging Ohtani in the lineup as a designated hitter. What all of this means is that I won’t try to guess how the Giants would use Ohtani if they could coax him into playing in San Francisco. Instead, I’ll predict how Ohtani would make his greatest impact.
Should the Giants trade for Stanton and sign Ohtani, they would instantly become much more of a factor in the race for a National League playoff spot. San Francisco already has several veteran pieces like Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford who would complement Stanton nicely in a lineup, and the strength of the Giants team is its pitching staff, led by Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto. Though the Giants would still need to shore up their holes in center field and at third base, a path to the playoffs becomes much more realistic if the team is able to either A) Land Stanton and Ohtani or B) Make several incremental improvements at various positions and also add Ohtani.
And the playoffs, in my opinion, are where Ohtani’s impact would be felt the most.
The Giants have proved three times in the last decade how important the value of pitching is in the postseason, and Ohtani’s presence in a starting rotation would make San Francisco much more formidable. Though Giants fans would love to see the team complete a worst-to-first turnaround and end the Dodgers’ reign atop the division, a rotation featuring a top three of Bumgarner, Cueto and Ohtani would turn San Francisco into one of the most feared postseason teams in baseball, even if they only managed to earn a wildcard berth.
Based on Szymborski’s projections, Ohtani would make 24 starts next season on the mound, and he’s predicted to finish with an ERA of 3.55 over 139.1 innings. While he wouldn’t slot in ahead of Bumgarner, he could fit into a four-man playoff rotation ahead of Cueto in some series, and behind him in others. Either way, though, he likely pushes Jeff Samardzija back in a playoff rotation, and the Giants would certainly like their chances in a seven-game playoff series with a foursome of Bumgarner-Ohtani-Cueto-Samardzija pitching in consecutive games.
San Francisco could then push Matt Moore and Chris Stratton to long relief roles, and have starter-caliber pitchers in a bullpen for mop-up duty if needed. It’s a rotation that could go head-to-head with the Dodgers’ top four, and one that should be able to match up with teams like the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, depending on who the top contenders in the National League acquire before next October.
There are arguments to be made that signing Ohtani would ease the pressure on Evans’ pursuit of an additional outfielder, and even cases to be made that Ohtani could help the Giants in center field next season. The Giants could pencil in Ohtani as their designated hitter in all American League ballparks next season, and he would instantly become one of the top pinch hitters in baseball. While Ohtani has given scouts every reason to believe he would be a competent, perhaps even above average hitter, his numbers as a pitcher in Japan are startling.
And even though a record number of home runs were hit in the 2017 regular season and the 2017 postseason, the Giants still very much believe they can win with pitching and defense.
If it’s still possible to claim a title with that ethos, there’s no better way than testing the theory with a playoff rotation that prominently features Ohtani.