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How shedding one more contract could alter the Giants’ offseason outlook

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Trading Matt Moore offered the Giants a path, and now they’re looking for a doorway.

On Friday afternoon, San Francisco announced that it dealt Moore to the Texas Rangers in exchange for a pair of pitching prospects who might never make it to the Major League level.

The return, though, was not general manager Bobby Evans’ primary motivation for crafting the deal. Instead, Evans and vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean are concerned about potentially crossing the competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold for the fourth straight season, which would provide the Giants with severe penalties and alter the franchise’s long-term financial outlook. That’s why the Giants were eager to unload Moore’s $9 million contract from their payroll, because it gives San Francisco additional flexibility to address the long list of team needs that can’t possibly be confronted in just one offseason.

The Giants say they need a center fielder, a third baseman and bullpen help. They also hope to re-sign backup catcher Nick Hundley and perhaps add a corner outfielder who might be able to relieve the franchise of having to live through another spring of banking on a platoon to net a positive result. To tackle all of those issues and stay under the $197 million CBT threshold, the Giants have roughly $20 million to spend.

$20 million sounds like a lot of money. Until you realize that one year of J.D. Martinez might cost $25 million, and Martinez reportedly wants a seven-year deal.

Up until the Moore trade, though, the Giants had just over $10 million to spread around among new acquisitions tasked with helping the team rebound from a 64-98 season and a last-place finish in the National League West. That’s why trading the southpaw led the team to a path. Now, the Giants need to find the doorway at the end of that path which could lead the team into a future that doesn’t look nearly as bleak. In fact, if the Giants stay under the CBT threshold in 2018 and find a way to address the majority of their needs, the doorway could lead to a considerable amount of hope.

But to follow that path and reach the doorway, the Giants must act quickly. They also need the help of a guide.

On Saturday afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers found their guide, the Atlanta Braves. The Braves and Dodgers completed a five-player trade that was effectively “cash-neutral,” but it was a trade that will help Los Angeles field a 2018 roster with a payroll that rests just under the CBT threshold. The Dodgers were weighed down by the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy, while the Braves no longer had a need for Matt Kemp. The teams initiated a trade and now, the Dodgers are primed to rank among the top bidders in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes that will take place at the beginning of the 2018-2019 offseason.

I’ve already written about why the CBT matters to the Giants, and why their current situation is so dire. Talk of the CBT can grow tiresome, but essentially, there are massive financial incentives for the Giants to slide under the tax threshold this season, in part because it would allow San Francisco to compete for Harper, Manny Machado and a slew of other high-profile free agents set to flood the market next offseason on a level playing field with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees.

The Giants are so cognizant of the CBT threshold, in fact, that the Moore trade could be the first of two significant deals that would allow the Giants to gain a sense of financial flexibility that may help the team achieve its goal of competing next season.

The problem? Executing a second trade is a challenging proposition. The Giants won’t consider trading Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner or Brandon Crawford. After dealing Moore, San Francisco can’t exactly swap Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija unless they receive a young, controllable pitcher of the same caliber in return, and that’s highly unlikely. Brandon Belt and Mark Melancon might have been trade candidates early in the year, but injury issues that impacted both players wiped out those possibilities.

That leaves the Giants with two high-priced players they could potentially move, but both would largely be considered undesirable by other teams. Hunter Pence is scheduled to make $18 million next season, and unless the Giants agree to pay a big portion of his salary (which doesn’t exactly fit the philosophy here), it would be very hard to find an interested party. The kicker? Pence has a full no-trade clause and he loves San Francisco. It’s hard to envision Pence waiving that clause, even if the Giants did find a suitor.

So that leaves Denard Span. Span was reportedly involved in the Giants’ potential swap with the Marlins in the Giancarlo Stanton trade the two sides agreed upon, but Stanton’s no-trade clause prevented that trade from coming to fruition.

The 33-year-old outfielder is owed $11 million next season, and he has a $4 million buyout for 2019. Span doesn’t have the range to play center field anymore, but he hit .272 last offseason and posted a .756 OPS, which is slightly above his career average. Span isn’t the player most teams are looking to acquire at this point in the offseason, with nearly every top free agent still available, but he’s a decent asset who might turn into a serviceable left fielder for a team looking at one-year rental options.

Though the Giants could possibly find a team wanting to add Cueto or Samardzija, such a transaction would just create another hole for San Francisco. By moving Span, the Giants would free up much-needed space under the CBT ceiling, and allow San Francisco to address several other needs without hurting its depth in a severe way.

Evans’ chief issue, of course, is working a deal for Span in the immediate future that would allow the Giants to take advantage of free agent and other trade opportunities while the market is still flush with assets. If the Giants wait until January, they may find a wider range of interest for Span’s services, but they would likely miss out on the opportunity to add any helpful pieces because they don’t currently have enough space under the CBT ceiling.

With Span off the books, the Giants should have a little more than $30 million to locate a center fielder, a third baseman and bullpen help. Perhaps they could add Hundley and a corner outfielder, too. The difference between $30 million and $20 million might not seem like a lot, but it could allow San Francisco to keep more of its prospects out of trades and let Evans lock up a few quality free agents.

With $30 million to spend, the Giants could add third baseman Todd Frazier at $11 million per year, sign Jay Bruce at $12 million per year and then trade a key prospect like Chris Shaw for a young, controllable center fielder. The St. Louis Cardinals have Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader, for example. If the Giants don’t go the Frazier-Bruce route, they could bring back Eduardo Nunez at $7 or $8 million per year, and then trade for Andrew McCutchen who’s owed $14.5 million next season. There are no shortage of creative ways to fill said holes, but having $30 million worth of room under the CBT sure makes those options more palatable.

Regardless of which path the Giants take to plug their various holes, though, San Francisco needs a doorway at the end of the path. Evans and Sabean are well aware of the future benefits the franchise would gain by remaining under the CBT this season, but to do that and to achieve the team’s goal of becoming contending in 2018, the Giants need another big contract off the books.