Bobby Evans has a chance.
In the midst of an offseason in which a large number of Giants fans have already written off the team’s general manager, Evans executed a trade for Tampa Bay Rays’ franchise cornerstone Evan Longoria and freed up enough payroll to help his team add two to three more pieces.
Though several immediate impact free agents are still on the market, the Giants would be wise to build upon the existing roster through trades for young players with controllable contracts that will allow San Francisco to field a roster with a payroll that remains under the $197 million competitive balance tax threshold.
Which teams represent the best matches to help Evans and the Giants address their remaining needs? Let’s have a look.
Boston Red Sox
After dealing Christian Arroyo to Tampa Bay, the Giants don’t have many chips remaining in their farm system. However, the team’s other top hitting prospect, Chris Shaw, is a perfect fit in Boston. Shaw is a Massachusetts native and a Boston College product who should be Major League ready by the middle of the 2018 season, and he’s also better equipped to play in the American League because he can hit for power but might be a defensive liability, especially in the outfield which is where the Giants are grooming him.
The reason the Giants would need to include Shaw in a deal? The Red Sox have a rangy 27-year-old center fielder Jackie Bradley, Jr., and he could become expendable if Boston signs a free agent outfielder like J.D. Martinez. Bradley, Jr. finished eighth in the Major Leagues in Outs Above Average, and would slide in at the top of the Giants’ order as the team’s leadoff hitter. With a team-friendly contract that has Bradley, Jr. under club control through 2020, the Giants could save money with this addition and then sign a corner outfielder like Jay Bruce on the free agent market.
Evans could turn this swap into a larger deal by adding a promising outfield or pitching prospect in, and then asking for a Major League reliever like Joe Kelly. The Giants have a need in the bullpen as well as the outfield, and once the Red Sox make a splash in free agency, San Francisco might be able to pluck off a key asset or two.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals already traded away one outfielder this offseason, Stephen Piscotty, but St. Louis might be willing to part with another asset if the Giants can sweeten a deal with a young pitcher or two.
St. Louis will start the 2018 season with an Opening Day outfield of Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler and Tommy Pham, which means Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader will be on the outside of the equation looking in. Grichuk is a 20-home run hitter who doesn’t have great defensive range, but his presence would be an upgrade over the defense Denard Span played a season ago. Bader, meanwhile, has just 85 at-bats under his belt, but the 23-year-old center fielder displayed tremendous promise at the AAA level last season.
Trading for Grichuk would be more in line with the Giants’ philosophy of committing to win as soon as possible, but trading for Bader, a high-upside prospect who blends speed and power, could be the better long-term move. In any deal the Giants work out, the Cardinals will likely be looking for pitching considering the franchise parted with three pitchers to land Ozuna. It might cost the Giants Tyler Beede or Andrew Suarez as well as a lower level arm, but a deal with the Cardinals would make plenty of sense.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers aren’t the perfect trade partner for the Giants, but they do have a surplus of outfielders and could be willing to clear the way for Brett Phillips in center field or top overall prospect Lewis Brinson.
Center fielder Keon Broxton has impressive range and finished 11th in Outs Above Average last year, but he has a low on-base percentage for a top of the order hitter and hasn’t been able to demonstrate he can hit for average consistently. Broxton might be the player the Brewers are most willing to move, but the Giants probably have their eyes on right fielder Domingo Santana, who smashed 30 home runs last season and is still just 24 years old.
It’s unlikely San Francisco could offer the type of prospect package that would entice Milwaukee to move Santana, but Broxton is a relatively realistic target who would check off the power and speed boxes the Giants are looking to hit. Broxton is under team control through 2022 while Santana won’t become a free agent until 2021, so they wouldn’t make a dent in San Francisco’s payroll, a bonus that would allow the team to add another asset immediately.
Other questions for San Francisco to consider? Whether it would be worth asking about Ryan Braun’s contract, and whether Milwaukee has a Major League-caliber reliever it would be willing to include in any potential deal.
Cincinnati Reds
The Giants have been tied to Reds’ center fielder Billy Hamilton since the team’s outfield defense began to deteriorate, but Cincinnati’s asking price is reportedly sky-high for a player who has a hard time getting on base.
When Hamilton does reach, there’s no player in baseball who’s more electric as he’s swiped at least 56 bases in each of the past four seasons. Hamilton is still just 27 years old, so that speed shouldn’t fade anytime soon, but the Giants would obviously prefer their leadoff hitter to find his way on at a higher clip.
Hamilton is under team control for the next two seasons, so he actually stands to hit the market before other options the Giants might pursue like Bradley, Jr. and Broxton. Would Hamilton’s outstanding center field defense and unparalleled speed be worth parting with top prospect Heliot Ramos for? It’s a question the Giants have assuredly considered this offseason, and it’s one they probably have a hard time answering “Yes” to.
The Reds also have left fielder Adam Duvall, a former Giants prospect who blossomed into a 30-home run hitter with regular playing time in a low-pressure environment. Would San Francisco be interested in a reunion?
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Giants have been linked to Pirates’ center fielder Andrew McCutchen, but those reports have also been shot down on various occasions.
On one hand, a deal for McCutchen doesn’t make a ton of sense because his defense is declining and the Giants are interested in shoring up their center field situation. On another hand, the Giants could convert McCutchen to left field, and trading for a player who’s hit at least 21 home runs in each of the last seven seasons to the middle of the order at just $14.5 million could turn out to be a steal.
If the Giants have the prospects to swing a deal for McCutchen and either sign or trade for a speedy center fielder and leadoff hitter who’s contract wouldn’t push San Francisco’s payroll above the CBT threshold, it’s a path to success in 2018 the franchise should absolutely consider. Imagine a heart of the order that features Buster Posey, Longoria and McCutchen, and all of a sudden, the Giants look like they have a legitimate shot to reverse their fortunes next season.
Another factor for the Giants to consider is that if a McCutchen trade doesn’t pay dividends, he would be off the payroll at the end of 2018 and San Francisco could start from scratch.