The Giants need two more outfielders, but they don’t have enough financial flexibility to sign a pair of marquee free agents.
The Giants need two more outfielders, but if they trade their top prospects, their farm system will be gutted.
The Giants also need to contend.
General manager Bobby Evans and vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean said so, and they’ll be judged on their ability to help the club rebound from posting a woeful 64-98 record last year.
The issues confronting the franchise are clear. San Francisco wants to keep its 2017 payroll below $197 million so the Giants can reset their luxury tax penalties. The Giants would like to hold on to 2017 first round draft choice Heliot Ramos, while retaining outfield prospect Chris Shaw and prized pitcher Tyler Beede. But if the Giants want to win next year, they can’t do both.
Evans and Sabean either have to sign J.D. Martinez and Lorenzo Cain (or two other marquee free agents), or surrender what’s left of their farm system’s upper crust to acquire a rangy center fielder and a corner outfielder with pop through trades.
Based on various estimates, the Giants have anywhere between $15-$21 million left to add to their payroll this offseason without pushing over the $197 million threshold. San Francisco needs breathing room, so the franchise is unlikely to acquire a player like Andrew McCutchen –who is owed $14.5 million next year– and then sign Jay Bruce, who will command a multi-year deal. Evans could still pursue this course of action, but it would likely take the Giants out of the sweepstakes for several top free agents next year. While teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers work to stay under the luxury tax threshold in anticipation of offering mega-deals for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado next offseason, the rest of baseball, including the Giants, is following suit.
For a Giants team that already has more money committed to players in 2019 and 2020 than any other franchise, it doesn’t make sense to cross the threshold by a few million dollars. San Francisco should either blow past it by inking Martinez and Cain, or slide under the $197 million mark to level the playing field in free agency next offseason.
To some extent, the Giants have already made their intentions clear. By trading Matt Moore to the Rangers for low-to-mid level prospects, the Giants dumped $9 million in salary. By trading Denard Span and top prospect Christian Arroyo to Tampa Bay in a cash-neutral (for 2018) trade for Evan Longoria, the Giants parted with a top prospect and addressed a critical need without adding to their payroll for next season. Those two trades were a declaration of sorts that Evans is determined to maintain a roster with a payroll that does not exceed $197 million.
Now comes the hard part.
The Giants don’t have many prospects left that will net them players of Longoria’s caliber. A deal for McCutchen, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, would require the Giants to give up Ramos, Shaw or Beede. For the Giants to complete a swap for Reds’ center fielder Billy Hamilton, multiple reports indicate San Francisco would need to part with Ramos.
Many Giants fans don’t want to wave goodbye to what’s left of “the future.” But take a step back for a moment, and consider how trades involving prospects would impact the franchise.
What will Shaw and Beede become at the Major League level? Shaw is a left-handed power hitter who strikes out a lot and doesn’t have a natural defensive position. That’s not exactly great for a team that plays 81 home games at AT&T Park. Beede has had ups and downs over the past three seasons, and is now projected to be a back-end of the rotation starter.
What if a team wants the Giants’ No. 4 prospect, outfielder Bryan Reynolds? He hasn’t played above A-San Jose, and the earliest he could arrive at the Major League level is 2019. No. 7 prospect Aramis Garcia? He’s a promising catching prospect, but Buster Posey is already locked into that job for years to come. No. 5 prospect Austin Slater and No. 6 prospect Steven Duggar might not factor into potential trades because they factor into the Giants’ 2018 plans, but San Francisco could likely include No. 8 prospect Sandro Fabian or No. 9 prospect Heath Quinn in a deal to satisfy a team’s request. If any of those last four players are moved, it’s not clear the Giants are losing an obvious Major League starter-caliber talent.
In fact, outside of Ramos, who could blossom into a truly elite talent, the Giants might not have another clear-cut future starter in their system.
While I believe the franchise should do whatever it can to salvage Ramos, no prospect should be completely off limits if it means improving the Major League club in 2018 and beyond. Under Sabean and Evans’ lead, the Giants have always used the farm system to improve the current status of the 25-man roster and that philosophy shouldn’t stop now.
The Giants own the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, and the No. 2 pick in each round of the draft as well. San Francisco has already overhauled the leadership and development staffs in its Minor League system, and now, the Giants are slated to add a wealth of new talent.
Furthermore, if Evans’ trades don’t pan out and the Giants crash and burn this year, the franchise will have enough pieces to completely revamp its farm system. Madison Bumgarner would bring in a record haul in prospects, while a veteran outfielder on an expiring contract like McCutchen would net a comfortable return as well. Essentially, if the Giants part with young players this offseason and the team doesn’t improve, San Francisco can turn around and land a whole new haul of prospects this summer.
Why not go for it?
After a last-place finish shocked a franchise and its fan base, the Giants are confident they can compete for a playoff spot in 2018. The team’s management has already taken the first step toward improving a roster full of holes by trading for Longoria, and now, San Francisco has a few more pieces to add.
There are two paths toward success, one which requires the Giants to surpass the tax threshold, and another that requires the team to surrender assets who might contribute to a brighter future.
Trade the prospects.