With a little more than a month remaining until pitchers and catchers report to the Giants’ complex in Scottsdale, Arizona for Spring Training, general manager Bobby Evans still has three paths to take to address the team’s offseason needs.
After finishing 64-98 in 2017, Evans began the offseason determined to fix one of the league’s most disappointing outfields, find a full-time third baseman and shore up the team’s depth in the bullpen.
Though more than three months have passed since the Giants last took the field, Evans has only checked one box this offseason, trading for Tampa Bay Rays’ franchise cornerstone and third baseman Evan Longoria.
The deal for Longoria provided a blueprint for how the Giants planned to navigate the rest of the offseason, but it’s not the only indicator of how Evans can improve the team’s roster. With more than 100 free agents still available and several trade opportunities that could materialize, the Giants aren’t quite sitting at first down and 10, but they are in a manageable second down and six.
That down and distance affords Evans three plays to move the chains, and make no mistake, this is four-down territory. Following a last-place finish in the National League West, the Giants can’t risk the dangers associated with punting on 2018.
So what’s on the the team’s play sheet? A dive with the fullback, a play-action pass over the middle and a Hail Mary.
After trading for Longoria netted the Giants a four-yard pickup, San Francisco could take a conservative approach and draw up the dive play.
The franchise is high on center field prospect Steven Duggar, who could enter Spring Training with a legitimate opportunity to win an Opening Day roster spot. Duggar is fast, plays great defense and will probably struggle to hit for average, but his presence would save the Giants a significant chunk of change on the free agent market and he’s already in the organization. San Francisco rarely hands rookies starting jobs, but if they sign a power-hitting free agent like Carlos Gonzalez to a one-year contract to play right field, the Giants could shift Hunter Pence to left and hope a combination of Duggar and Austin Slater keeps the team afloat in the outfield next season.
Though handing off to the rarely-used, yet ever-present wildcard like a fullback (a prospect) and running behind an aging offensive guard (Carlos Gonzalez) doesn’t sound like a winning strategy, it’s an option that remains in the playbook for San Francisco.
Based on Evans’ statements this offseason, the play call the Giants are most inclined to make is the play-action pass, where they set up the run by grooming prospects for a big stage before faking the handoff and taking a shot over the middle with a trade. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Giants are still very interested in Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, who would bring another much-needed power bat to the middle of San Francisco’s order. McCutchen is owed $14.5 million in 2018, but if the Giants sweeten the deal with an extra prospect, Evans might entice Pittsburgh to pick up $1 or $2 million which would keep San Francisco under the $197 million luxury tax threshold next season.
Outside of trading for McCutchen, nearly every other National League Central team has outfielders that would fit in with the Giants. Milwaukee’s Keon Broxton could play center field at AT&T Park, while the Brewers’ Domingo Santana could hit cleanup for San Francisco. Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton has the range to play anywhere, elite speed that makes him a threat to steal any time he reaches base and a low career on-base percentage that would ruffle the feathers of even the most optimistic Giants fans. In St. Louis, Randal Grichuk is the odd man out in a crowded outfield, while prospect Harrison Bader is blocked in center field. The Cubs, meanwhile, aren’t actually a good trade partner, but they play in the Central, so they deserve a mention.
To orchestrate any trade, the Giants would likely need to part with one of their top three prospects: 18-year-old Heliot Ramos, left-handed power-hitter Chris Shaw, and 2018 starting rotation candidate Tyler Beede. It’s why the play-action is a risky call. The Giants could drop back and try to find a path to contention through a trade, but they also risk being sacked by an opportunistic team picking up a talented prospect or three that’s unloading an outfielder with flaws.
The final play the Giants can call is the Hail Mary, and it’s a call that looks increasingly viable as Spring Training draws near. While other major-market franchises like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers are bowing out from free agent bidding wars to stay under the luxury tax threshold, Evans can make a last-second audible to go for it all.
To this point in the offseason, every indication suggests the Giants are determined to keep their payroll under $197 million in 2018. Doing so would allow the franchise to reset luxury tax penalties, while ensuring San Francisco can enter the market next offseason prepared to spend big with a loaded free agent class. However, if the front office scoffs at the fullback dive and the play-action pass attempt falls incomplete, the Giants might have no choice but to throw the deep ball and hope it lands.
What would that look like?
Top free agent slugger J.D. Martinez is still up for grabs while speedy center fielder Lorenzo Cain remains unsigned. Inking a deal with either player would force the Giants over the luxury tax threshold, and once they cross $197 million, there’s no turning back. If the Giants can’t reset their penalties this offseason, they have every reason to believe that two high-profile signings in the outfield is better than one.
What will Evans eventually dial up? The Longoria trade provided a preview of the Giants’ next move, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the team is boxed in. With three paths to constructing a more complete roster still available, the Giants appear hopeful that another trade will help turn the franchise into a contender again.
Trading for an outfielder or outfielders would require San Francisco to surrender coveted prospects, and the Giants don’t have many left. What they do have, though, is an opportunity to rebuild their farm system this summer. Armed with the No. 2 selection in this year’s draft, and the No. 2 pick in each round, the Giants’ front office has a chance to start fresh within the same calendar year the franchise overhauled its Minor League development system.
Signing a player like Cain, who received a qualifying offer from Kansas City, would force the Giants to give up their second round pick and forfeit international bonus pool money.
Evans has already traded former top prospect Christian Arroyo for a 32-year-old Longoria, but he did so in a cash-neutral deal that sent Denard Span to Tampa Bay. For the Giants to acquire Major League talent and remain under the luxury tax threshold next year, Evans will need to part with more young talent. With the $197 million figure at the forefront of everyone’s mind, it would come as a surprise if the Giants didn’t exhaust their trade options before exploring other possibilities.
Regardless, the paths to improving the team’s roster in 2018 are clear. All we know is that the Giants don’t believe in punting.