© Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
After losing 98 games last year, the Giants did everything in their power this winter to ensure they don’t put their fanbase through another disastrous season. They emerged from the offseason with a pair of former franchise faces, a reliable backup outfielder, left-handed reliever, and with the belief that they have the makings of a contending team.
Yet, it’ll take more than the pieces they acquired during the offseason to get them back into the playoff conversation.
Here are five keys that are essential to the Giants successfully rebounding in 2018.
A strong April
The first month of the season could make or break the Giants’ year.
Right out of the gate, the Giants are scheduled to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in seven of their first nine games. Then, a four-game series against the San Diego Padres is sandwiched between two three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Giants will temporarily get out of the NL West to face the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals, only to finish the month with three-games series against the Dodgers and Padres.
All told, only eight of the Giants’ 26 games in April are against competitors outside the NL West.
Once April turns into May, it’ll be evidently clear if the Giants’ aggressive mindset this winter is likely to pay off. Should the Giants jump out to a great start with a strong month of April, they’ll likely find themselves towards the top of the division.
On the other hand, should they find themselves in a hole after the first month of the season, it’s not impossible to see major changes take place before the trade deadline.
Josh Osich’s continued success
Never before in his career has Josh Osich pitched as well as he has this spring. In 9.1 scoreless innings pitched over eight games, Osich has allowed only six hits and one walk with 12 strikeouts.
The question is: Can Osich carry these numbers into the regular season?
Osich pitched phenomenally in 2015, going 2-0 with a 2.20 ERA in 28.2 innings pitched. Yet, he followed up his freshman season with struggles as a sophomore and junior in the major leagues.
After going 1-3 in 2016, his ERA soared from 4.71 to 6.23 last season. His number of strikeouts jumped to 43 last season, but so did his walks; from 19 in 2016 to 27 in 2017.
As it stands, there’s little doubt Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, and Sam Dyson will assume their spots in the bullpen. That leaves four remaining spots – three once Will Smith returns from Tommy John surgery by May 1 – in the bullpen. After the spring he’s had, Osich appears to be leading the pack.
Regardless, if the Giants hope to rebound this season, they’ll need Osich to revert back to his 2015 form, and provide much-needed left-handed relief to back up Watson and eventually Smith.
Support from back-end starters
Not matter who wins out between Ty Blach, Chris Stratton, and Derek Holland for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Giants will need quality contributions from their back-end starters to succeed this season.
The three-man race for those rotation spots has evened out as the spring has progressed, making it a tough choice that the Giants will eventually have to make.
Stratton and Blach both began their springs with two-inning shutouts, where neither allowed more than three hits while striking out two. Blach gave up a run in his next appearance, but kept his ERA below 3.00 through his first three starts. Likewise, Stratton held a 2.25 ERA through his first four starts with 14 strikeouts.
Although Holland didn’t start the spring as well as his competitors, he’s since pitched his way into the conversation. After allowing two runs in his first two starts, Holland only gave up one run with five strikeouts over 6.1 innings in his next two appearances.
Even as Blach and Stratton stumbled in their most recent starts, so did Holland.
On the same day that Blach gave up seven runs over five innings on March 17, Stratton was tagged for four over 4.1 innings. Holland maneuvered through four innings while striking out five on Tuesday night, but gave up two homers and three runs to the Kansas City Royals.
With Bumgarner looking strong this spring, and Cueto and Samardzija both confident they’ll be ready by Opening Day, the top of the rotation should live up to expectations this season. Regardless, the Giants will need whoever takes over the final two starting spots to give them a continuous chance to win and carry their weight in the rotation.
Mark Melancon
Last season, Mark Melancon wasn’t the closer the Giants expected when they signed him to a four-year contract in December 2016. This year they need him to be.
When Melancon signed with the Giants for $62 million, he was two years removed from 51 saves in 2015. Melancon’s ninth-inning dominance survived a trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Washington Nationals in 2016, totaling 47 saves between both teams.
However, Melancon struggled last season to the tune of a 4.50 ERA and only 11 saves in 32 games. His tough season came to a miserable end last September when he opted to undergo season-ending pronator release surgery.
The next time the Giants saw Melancon on the mound was in his spring training debut on March 7.
Despite the uncertainty that came with last year’s surgery, he’s pitched well in his first three appearances this spring. The only hit he’s given up was a home run to Jose Pirela, but he hasn’t allowed any additional runs or walked anyone while striking out two. He’s expected to pitch back-to-back appearances for the first time this spring on Thursday and Friday.
The late innings have haunted the Giants since the summer of 2016, shortly after the disbanding of their “Core Four” bullpen; consisting of Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, and Sergio Romo. It’s now up to Melancon to ensure the ninth inning no longer puts the Giants in a cold sweat.
Brandon Belt’s health
There’s hardly been a hotter hitter than Brandon Belt throughout the major leagues this spring.
Among his fellow qualifiers, Belt’s .400 batting average is ranked third and his .491 OBP, which has lived around .500 for most of the spring, is fifth. He’s smashed three home runs, hit six doubles, and walked eight times over 16 games.
With numbers like those, it’s easy to forget that his 2017 campaign was cut short after being hit in the head with a pitch on August 4. He dealt with concussion symptoms throughout the offseason, but appears to have not missed a beat at the plate.
Given how difficult it was for the Giants to produce offense last season, Belt’s health is a critical factor for the Giants this year.
The Giants’ 639 runs and .309 OBP last season were better only than the San Diego Padres. They also hit the fewest number of home runs in the major leagues (128).
At full strength, Belt’s presence will boost the Giants’ offensive production this season by protecting others in the lineup; such as Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen and Joe Panik, from being pitched around.
Keaton Moore is a KNBR contributor. Follow him at @KeatonAMoore