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ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Sunday that at least three teams have reached out to the 49ers inquiring about veteran receiver Pierre Garçon. The NFL’s trade deadline is set for 1 p.m. Tuesday, and the 49ers have yet to make any moves.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said he has talked with Garçon about a potential trade.
“It is a possibility, but nothing is for sure right now,” Shanahan told reporters after Sunday’s loss.
If the price is right, trading Garçon makes sense.
For one, the 32-year-old has battled injuries since signing with the 49ers prior to last season. In eight appearances in 2017, he produced 40 catches for 500 yards. He was on his way to a solid year, but it was cut short when he suffered a neck injury in Week 9 that sidelined him for the rest of the season. Garcon had played in all seven games of 2018 before missing Week 8 with shoulder and knee injuries, which are not considered long-term.
Garçon’s numbers have regressed in his second year with the 49ers. Through seven appearances, he has 21 catches on 40 targets for 230 receiving yards. He has not yet scored a touchdown in his 49ers tenure. His slow start could be attributed to Jimmy Garoppolo’s season-ending knee injury, but Garçon has consistently struggled to gain separation, and he has had some issues with drops.
Even with the 49ers’ season lost, its value lies in developing the younger players. The 49ers have only retained veterans if they are key contributors moving forward, and Garcon qualifies. But it’s fair to wonder whether the 49ers could find similar production from his younger backup, Kendrick Bourne, who produced seven catches for 71 yards Sunday night— better than any of Garcon’s performances this year — in his first extended action.
If the 49ers trade Garçon, that would allow more playing time for Bourne, a talented receiver whose mental mistakes are likely to subside only with more playing time. Rookie Dante Pettis, who can also play Garcon’s “X” spot in the 49ers offense, figures to be an important playmaker in this offense for the foreseeable future. There is not a major drop off from Garçon and his backups. The same can not be said for fellow veterans — whether Joe Staley or Richard Sherman — and their backups.
If a team acquires Garcon, it would pay the remainder of his $6.63 million contract this season and his non-guaranteed $5.65 million salary next year. His terms from 2019 to 2021 are club options that the 49ers would have to exercise preceding the league’s new year. If they do not pick up his option prior to 2019, they would suffer $7.2 million in dead cap, according to Spotrac.
Trading Garcon would save a solid chunk of cash while adding to the 49ers’ nearly $40 million in cap space, the third-most in the NFL. Some of that figures to eventually distribute to defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who is in line for a mega-deal at some point in future years, should he continue to produce the way he is.
Garcon still has value, but how much can the 49ers expect in return?
It’s never easy to speculate on trade specifics, but we can refer to a couple relatively similar examples. More than a month ago, the Patriots acquired Josh Gordon for a fifth-round pick, with the Patriots receiving a seventh-rounder should Gordon be active for fewer than 10 games. It’s hard to compare Gordon, a generational talent with constant off-field issues, with Garcon, a steady contributor, but they are both accomplished veterans who can step in and help win-now teams. Last year, the Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin to the Bills for a third-rounder and seventh-rounder. Though younger, Benjamin has not produced the way Garcon has throughout his 11-year career.
It’s reasonable to expect the 49ers could receive a mid-round pick, anywhere from the fourth round to sixth round, for Garcon. The 49ers could also add a draft pick and request a higher-round pick for Garcon. The 49ers could subsequently select a receiver in the 2019 draft and develop him behind Bourne and Pettis.
Ultimately, the 49ers are in the middle of a rebuild. Stocking the roster with as much young talent as possible takes precedence. If that means parting ways with Garcon, who is on the back end of his career, giving the younger players playing time, saving cap space, and acquiring a mid-round draft pick, the 49ers would emerge in a spot better preparing them for long-term success.