© Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
It has become the talking point of a disappointing season. “Fire Robert Saleh” is an oft-repeated outcry uttered among the 49ers fan base, particularly after San Francisco’s latest blowout loss, 43-16, at Seattle Sunday afternoon.
The frustration is understandable because many of the defensive miscues have been so glaring. It does not take a football expert to know opposing receivers should not roam free upfield, 30 yards away from the closest defender, which has been a recurring sight in 49ers games. Poorly timed penalties, missed tackles, and a consistent issue of miscommunication have halted considerable progress from 2017 to 2018. Saleh undoubtedly deserves some of that blame as the defensive coordinator.
But the 49ers should not fire him two years into his job if they want to remain consistent with their message of patience.
Coaches are always the most convenient scapegoat, and firing them is the most convenient action. A key reason why the 49ers face a major rebuild is because of their recent coaching turnover and the dissimilarities among each member of that revolving carousel. Firing Saleh would continue that line of action.
Prior to the 2017 season, Jed York hired Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to six-year contracts with the future in mind. That also applied to whomever Shanahan brought in as defensive coordinator. He chose Saleh because he runs a particular system — a 4-3, Cover-3 defense, drawn from the great Seattle units of earlier this decade — that has enjoyed success around the league. That scheme is maximized with specific personnel, including a dynamic pass rush, speedy linebackers, big cornerbacks, and cerebral safeties.
Saleh did not have those parts prior to the 2017 season. He still does not have all of them. These things take time when you’re essentially starting from scratch.
Since Shanahan and Lynch took over, they have retained just 12 players from the 2016 team. They have spent the past two years drafting players tailored to Saleh’s system. In the third round of April’s draft, they selected Tarvarius Moore with the plan to convert him from safety to cornerback because they liked his stature and athleticism. He has not played a meaningful defensive snap this season. In the fourth round, they drafted Kentavius Street, a defensive end who tore his ACL just weeks before the draft began, deeming his rookie season as a redshirt. In the sixth round, they drafted Marcell Harris, who missed the first half of this season as he recovered from a torn Achilles.
Nearly every transaction the 49ers have made under Shanahan and Lynch has been done with an eye toward future seasons.
It’s unlikely we would have these same discussions about Saleh’s job if the 49ers had an edge rusher creating turnovers and masking some of the defense’s deficiencies. The lack of pressure has forced a young secondary to cover for abnormally long periods of time. After 12 games, the 49ers have 29 sacks, eight of which came in a Week-9 blowout against the lowly Raiders.
The lack of pass rush was a known weakness this past offseason, and the 49ers did little to address it. That does not fall on Saleh. The only addition the 49ers (temporarily) made was signing Jeremiah Attaochu, who was released in the round of cuts prior to Week 1. They did not select a healthy edge rusher in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Firing Saleh is not magically going to solve the pass rush issue or the defense’s inability to force takeaways. The 49ers’ -20 turnover differential is the worst in the NFL, and they are forcing turnovers at a historically low rate.
#49ers 5 takeaways are fewest since at least 1940 through 12 games, beating the 7 by Jacksonville in 2016
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) December 3, 2018
Injuries and absences have also played roles in San Francisco’s defensive struggles. The 49ers have cycled seven players in and out of their two safety spots this season. Every member of the starting secondary — aside from cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon, who has dealt with his own injuries — has missed time. Reuben Foster was recently dismissed from the team after he was arrested for alleged domestic violence. Malcolm Smith has been in and out of the lineup with tendonitis in his lower leg.
Every team has its injuries, but they have delayed the learning curve for a 49ers defense still learning to play together.
Last week, on a conference call with Bay Area reporters, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll was asked about coaching those all-time great Seattle defenses. He referenced a Bill Walsh quote that applies to the current 49ers regime.
“Coach Walsh used to say it takes you five years before you really can get your team together where they really have the reservoir of experiences where they can really find their best,” Carroll said. “That’s a long haul to get to that.”
An easy way to disrupt that continuity is firing the defensive coordinator fewer than two years into the job. And if you look closer, things aren’t as bad as they seem.
The 49ers are allowing 231.1 yards per game, ranked ninth in the league. They are surrendering 5.6 yards per play, 14th-best in the league. The have given up 40 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the 13th-fewest in the NFL. DVOA rates the 49ers No. 24 in pass defense efficiency and No. 14 in rush defense efficiency.
They are surrendering lots of points — 28 per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. But that’s partly attributed to the 49ers offense giving the ball away 25 times, the second-most in the NFL, and making the defense defend a shrunken field.
Sunday was a perfect example. The 49ers turned the ball over three times. Richie James’ muffed punt led to a Seattle touchdown. And Nick Mullens’ late interception was returned 98 yards for a touchdown.
The season numbers are not convincing, but they are not horrible. Considering all of the factors of the 49ers’ season — the defense’s youth, injuries among its secondary, lack of a pass rush, and losing franchise quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, whose ability to move the ball downfield would take pressure off the defense —it’s unfair to dub Saleh as the root problem. It’s also easy to forget that last year, the 49ers had the seventh-ranked defense during their five-game winning streak under Garoppolo. A competent offense goes a long way when it comes to mitigating defensive issues.
Saleh, to be sure, is not free from all blame. Most of the 49ers’ second-year defensive players have regressed or plateaued through 12 games, which is partly on Saleh and the coaching staff for failing to develop them. The 49ers defense has fallen victim to miscommunication issues and busted coverages. Saleh takes part in that, too.
But those in the 49ers building have continually backed Saleh. Shanahan confidently called him “very good at what he does.” Richard Sherman blamed his teammates, not Saleh, for the defensive busts in San Francisco’s 38-27 loss at Kansas City in Week 3.
“I have been in the league in eight years, and it’s as simple as (the coaches) show you the plays the other team runs,” Sherman said after the loss. “You go to practice, they run the plays that they just showed you in the meeting. Then, you review the plays you just saw run, just saw practiced. It’s like somebody saying, ‘Here are the answers to the test. Let’s go take this practice test and review the practice test.’ And you go into the games, and the coaches have done a great job game-planning and putting us in a position. It’s just going out there and taking it to the game field.”
Saleh deserves criticism, but jumping the gun and firing him would contradict the new 49ers’ brass’ patient approach. The 49ers should not let him go simply to dispose him. If an experienced defensive coach with similar principles, such as Atlanta’s Dan Quinn, becomes available, that’s a different story.
2019 is a monumental year for all involved. It’s season No. 3 of the current regime, which is typically when you’d expect major improvement. Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon are set to return from knee injuries, and the 2019 No. 1 draft pick potentially awaits the 49ers.
If Saleh fails to elevate this defense in his third year, that’s another discussion. But firing him two seasons in would be premature.