© Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
SANTA CLARA — Perhaps the best indicator of San Francisco’s 2-10 start is the team’s turnover disparity, and it’s massive.
Through 12 games, the 49ers have a -20 turnover differential, the worst mark in the NFL. They have forced just five turnovers, which is four fewer than the next-worst unit.
With all of the attrition among the 49ers offense, you’d expect turnovers committed. Last Sunday, in San Francisco’s 43-16 loss at Seattle, Nick Mullens, Jeff Wilson, and Dante Pettis led the offense in the major statistical categories. The last time those three played together, it was in the second half of preseason games. The 49ers, as expected, gave away the ball three times.
The lack of forced turnovers, however, is far more concerning. They have not forced a turnover in the past four games.
The fewest turnovers in a non-strike NFL season is 11, shared by three different teams. Barring a significant turnaround, that unfortunate tag is soon to belong to the 2018 49ers, which need six turnovers in four games to tie that mark.
Their inability to take the ball away has forced a young, undermanned 49ers offense to string together long drives. And when the 49ers turn the ball over, the defense is tasked to defend a shrunken field. This vicious cycle has continually compromised San Francisco’s chances to win.
So, what is the problem? It’s multi-layered.
“It’s dropped interceptions,” Richard Sherman said Thursday. “It was busts earlier in the year but now guys are in position, It’s lack of risk-taking. Quarterbacks don’t have to take risks nowadays. If they don’t have a clean pocket, they will throw it away, throw it in the ground. A lot of times, they aren’t going to force it if they don’t have to. Some of it comes from, you get sacked forced fumbles, or you catch a running back and you hit him and he gives the ball. Guys have been securing the ball. There have been some pretty hard hits and violence, but guys are holding onto the ball. It’s one of those years, obviously.”
There may never be a root issue in a department as random as turnovers. But Sherman’s long-winded answer, which is accurate, reveals just how miserable this season has been for the 49ers defense in the turnover department.
There has been a laundry list of issues, whether missed tackles, blown assignments, or miscommunication. But the obvious void of a pass rusher best explains the lack of turnovers. The 49ers do not have an edge option who can force fumbles himself or create enough pressure to tempt the quarterback into making an errant throw, resulting in an interception.
The 49ers have won the turnover battle just twice this year. They have two wins.
Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has repeatedly said he expects the turnovers to come in bunches.
“It’s baffling to me that we haven’t been able to get as many as we had and how many missed (opportunities) we’ve had,” Saleh said Thursday. “I’m not even talking about miraculous plays. I’m just talking about plays that I feel like are gimmies. We should be well in double digits in terms of takeaways.”
It seems the 49ers bobble a sure interception or miss a promising opportunity for a strip-sack every game. Their two interceptions are the fewest in the NFL. For context, there are 34 players who have more than two interceptions individually.
“There are probably like four or five of those where there have been clean interceptions but they hit the ground,” Sherman said.
Sherman, who has recorded at least two interceptions in all seven NFL seasons, has not had one so far this year. Neither has opposite cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon. The only 49ers players with interceptions this season are strong safeties Antone Exum and Jaquiski Tartt.
San Francisco’s Cover-3 scheme, drawn from the great Seattle defenses, is not necessarily built to force turnovers. Yet with the right personnel, it can. Last year, Jacksonville, which deploys a similar defense, finished second in the NFL with 33 turnovers. Much of that can be attributed to the addition of defensive tackle Calais Campbell, who elevated the rest of the defense in his first year with the team.
Until the 49ers find that type of marquee edge rusher, they are likely to run into the same issues plaguing them throughout this season. At this point, it sounds like a broken message.
“They emphasize it every day,” Sherman said. “When you drill it, you can only do so much. It’s about on gameday, being able to go out and execute and take the ball from them, and not missing the opportunities when they come.”