Once the 49ers’ current season tailspun, and it looked more likely that they would draft No. 1 overall in the 2019 draft, the consensus has remained: draft Ohio State’s Nick Bosa.
But the 49ers’ 20-14 win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday added a wrinkle to that plan. The 49ers, Cardinals, and Raiders now share the league’s worst record, at 3-10.
ESPN’s Todd McShay has Arizona picking No. 1 overall and San Francisco at No. 2 in his first 2019 mock draft. McShay projects that the Cardinals take Bosa and the 49ers select Michigan defensive end Rashan Gary.
Gary was the No. 1 high school recruit in the 2016 class. Through three seasons at Michigan, he compiled 9.5 sacks and 23 tackles for loss. He is a two-time first-team All-Big Ten honoree.
Gary’s lack of prolific numbers largely reflects opposing offensive lines doubling him. While his college career was somewhat of a disappointment, McShay points to Gary’s “explosive closing burst and elite athleticism” as a “nightmare to block.”
Yet McShay’s projection may come as a surprise. Kentucky’s Josh Allen and Clemson’s Clelin Ferrell are two defensive end prospects who posted gaudier numbers this season than Gary. McShay has Ferrell going No. 4 overall to the Jets and Allen at No. 9 overall to the Lions.
Of course, the 49ers could very well pick No. 1 overall. They are currently slated to have the No. 1 pick, despite having the same record and strength of schedule as the Cardinals. Division and conference tiebreakers are the next tiebreaker. McShay’s projection means he predicts the 49ers will either win another game, or the Cardinals’ final strength of schedule will be easier at the conclusion of the season.
It would be surprising if the No. 1 pick was anyone other than Bosa, younger brother of Pro Bowl defensive end Joey.
Bosa has long been viewed as the top prospect in the 2019 class. Just about every mock draft has him pegged as such. The Ohio State product won the Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year Award in 2017 after compiling 8.5 sacks and 16 tackles for a loss. Bosa’s junior season ended three games in after he suffered a core muscle injury, which is not expected to linger long-term.
If the 49ers and Cardinals tie with the league’s worst record, make sure to monitor how their uncommon opponents finish. Their records impact strength of schedule and will decide which team picks first. For the 49ers, those uncommon opponents are the Giants and Buccaneers. For the Cardinals, those teams are the Falcons and Redskins. Both the 49ers and Cardinals are currently slated to pick ahead of the Raiders.