© Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
The 49ers’ 26-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15 appeased the fans who had not celebrated a victory over the division rival in the previous 10 matchups. But the result also potentially ruined what other fans considered a more meaningful result: the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
For months, the player associated with the top pick has been Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa, whose skill set would satisfy the most glaring need on the 49ers roster. If the season ended today, the No. 1 pick, and potentially Bosa, would belong to the Arizona Cardinals, which own the NFL’s worst record at 3-12. The 49ers are one of three teams — the others are the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders — that sit at 4-11 with one game remaining.
If the season ended today, the 49ers would have the No. 2 overall pick because their strength of schedule is easier than the Jets’ and Raiders.’
The Cardinals could lock up the No. 1 pick with a loss at Seattle this Sunday. The Seahawks do not plan to rest their starters. If Arizona wins, however, things would get interesting.
Let’s explore the possibilities:
The 49ers would have the No. 1 pick if… they lose to the Rams and the Cardinals beat the Seahawks.
The draft order tiebreaker for teams with identical records goes to the collective record of their uncommon opponents. Whichever team has the easier strength of schedule has the higher pick. The 49ers and Cardinals have the same schedules, with exception to two teams apiece. San Francisco’s uncommon opponents are the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which both sit at 5-10. The Cardinals’ uncommon opponents are the Washington Redskins (7-8) and Atlanta Falcons (6-9).
The 49ers would have the No. 2 pick if… a) they lose or b) the 49ers, Cardinals, Jets, and Raiders all win.
The only scenario that would prevent the 49ers from the No. 2 pick if the aforementioned situation occurred is if their uncommon opponents won, and the Jets’ uncommon opponents lost. This would make Arizona’s strength of schedule easier than San Francisco’s, giving the 49ers the No. 3 pick.
Right now, the 49ers’ strength of schedule (.504) is slightly easier than the Jets’ (.506), but that could change. Jason Fitzgerald, founder of Over the Cap, broke down the various scenarios below:
For the Jets to beat SF in SOS they will need 3 of the following 4 results
NYG over DAL
TB over ATL
BAL over CLE
LAC over DEN— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) December 25, 2018
The 49ers would fall out of the top-two picks if… they win Sunday and the Jets or Raiders lose. If both teams lose and the 49ers win, they would have the No. 4 spot, or lower.
There are currently four teams with a 5-10 record. The only of those four teams with an easier strength of schedule than the 49ers is the Detroit Lions (.500). If they lose Sunday and the 49ers win, they would drop to the No. 5 pick. That’s the “worst” they could do.
The bottomline: the 49ers could pick anywhere from No. 1 to No. 5 after this week, depending on varying results.