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George Kittle’s record-breaking season marked the arrival of a star, while underlining a harsh reality: he was the 49ers’ only consistent receiver in 2018.
Kittle’s 1,377 yards, now the most for any tight end in NFL history, were 890 more than the next 49ers receiver. That’s the largest disparity throughout the past 23 years for a 49ers team. Its leading wide receiver in 2018 was Kendrick Bourne, whose 487 yards ranked No. 97 in the NFL.
The discrepancy was partly a result of injuries. Bourne was the only 49ers receiver who played in every game. Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon, the team’s starting wide receivers in Week 1, started just eight games apiece. Trent Taylor never regained full health following surgery last offseason to remove bone spurs in his back. Dante Pettis suffered separate knee injuries that sidelined him four games and interrupted a midseason groove.
Even fully healthy, however, last year’s receiving corps was always more serviceable than sensational. Lots had to go right for the group to jell, whether Goodwin parlaying consecutive productive seasons for the first time in his career, Garcon staying healthy, Garcon showing he still had enough speed to separate, or the rest of the young receivers stepping up. None of those prospects came to fruition, with exception to Pettis’ encouraging four-game stretch in the back half of the season.
The 49ers will need much more production from their receivers if a highly anticipated 2019 season is met with positive results. Bolstering this group should be a priority this offseason.
The first rule of business is something Kyle Shanahan hasn’t avoided during recent questioning: confronting Garcon’s contract. Garcon signed a five-year deal prior to the 2017 season with team options in the final three years. The 49ers can now decline to pick up those years. Garcon is scheduled to make about $ 6 million in 2019. Cutting him would save about $1 million in cap space.
Last week, the 49ers parted ways with Earl Mitchell, who was in a similar contractual situation. They are now moving forward with the younger option, third-year nose tackle D.J. Jones. Shanahan hinted the 49ers could approach Garcon’s situation similarly. With a projected $65-70 million in cap space, parting ways with the veteran receiver won’t financially hurt the 49ers too much. It makes sense. Bourne is younger, cheaper, and seemingly as capable as Garcon, who will turn 33 in August, at this stage of his career.
If Garcon is released, who, in addition to Bourne, will replace him?
The upcoming free agent market doesn’t present many immediate solutions. Of the receivers who could play the “Z” spot in Shanahan’s offense, San Diego’s Tyrell Williams and New York’s Robby Anderson are options, though reports indicate Anderson and the Jets seek an extension. The 49ers would have to compete for Anderson, whose value has risen significantly following a terrific stretch to end the 2018 season.
Williams, a 6-foot-4 downfield threat, has averaged 813 yards in the past three seasons and hasn’t missed a game throughout his four-year career with the Chargers. Carolina’s Devin Funchess is another long, physical playmaker. Of the remaining free agent receivers, Golden Tate, who will turn 31 by season’s start, is the most accomplished of the group, but he feels like Garcon 2.0.
The draft is more intriguing.
The 2019 receiver class is arguably the deepest since the 2014 group, which included five Pro Bowlers, featuring Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. (Side note: of the 14 receivers taken in the first round of the past four drafts, Amari Cooper is the only to be named to a Pro Bowl.)
ESPN’s Todd McShay has three receivers on his top-32 big board. CBS Sports’ Chris Trespasso has four wide receivers on his top-20 big board, with three more named to his ‘honorable mention’ section, including NC State’s Kelvin Harmon, not on McShay’s list.
Iowa State’s Hakeem Butler, Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry, Stanford’s J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and Ole Miss’ D.K. Metcalf stand at 6-foot-3-plus and can make plays downfield. Harmon falls into that camp, too. Oklahoma’s Marquise Brown, Ohio State’s Parris Campbell, and South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel are dynamic, open-field playmakers. Shanahan and his staff coached a handful of accomplished college receivers, including Samuel, last week at the Senior Bowl, which we outlined here. Even if the 49ers miss out on two-to-four receivers prior to their second selection, they will have options when they pick next, at No. 36 overall.
The 49ers have five draft picks in 2019, though they will likely have an additional compensatory pick, which Over the Cap projects will be a sixth-rounder. While they won’t draft a receiver at No. 2 overall, they could use the No. 36, No. 67, or No. 97 overall selection to address that need.
Traditionally, Shanahan does not use early picks on offensive playmakers. Last year was the exception. For the first time in his 11 years of drafting, Shanahan selected a receiver in the first two rounds. The 49ers traded up 15 picks to take Pettis, the third receiver selected in the draft, at No. 44 overall. They later took James in the seventh round.
That approach underscored the team’s rebuild, centered on stocking the roster with as much young talent as possible. If 2018 was any indication, the 49ers will use the upcoming draft to add their next receiver.
That’s the route the 49ers should take. Draft a receiver to compete at the “Z” spot, develop Pettis, promote competition in the slot between James and Taylor, and preserve Goodwin. Surrounding Garoppolo with a dynamic receiving corps will supplement two of the offense’s strengths: Kittle and the speedy backfield.
And if Kittle’s numbers regress in 2019, it would likely mark offensive progress.