© Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
The obvious silver lining from a four-win season is that the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft awaits the 49ers.
That doesn’t mean they’ll use it to draft someone.
The 49ers could trade that pick to a quarterback-needy team to acquire more assets. They will almost certainly field offers to do so, with teams destined to fall in love with quarterback prospects more and more as the draft nears.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell told KNBR’s Gary and Larry why he feels trading back is the best move for the 49ers.
“I’m always a trade-back guy,” Barnwell said. “Look at history, every draft over the past 15 years or so, look at the first pass rusher taken, he’s usually pretty good, but more often than not, the best pass rusher is not necessarily the first guy off the board.”
Let’s take a look at the past 10 drafts to validate or invalidate Barnwell’s theory.
2018: The first defensive end taken was Bradley Chubb, whose 12 sacks led all rookies last year.
2017: The first defensive end taken was Myles Garrett, who went two picks before Solomon Thomas. Garrett is the only Pro Bowler of the defensive ends taken that year.
2016: Joey Bosa was the first defensive end taken. Bosa is also a Pro Bowler.
2015: This is the most recent year that proves Barnwell right. Dante Fowler was selected over three Pro Bowl defensive ends, including Leonard Williams, Vic Beasley, and Danielle Hunter.
2014: Jadeveon Clowney was the first defensive end taken. He and the subsequent two edge rushers selected are now Pro Bowlers, including Dee Ford and DeMarcus Lawrence. All three guys are options for their teams’ franchise tags this offseason.
2013: Dion Jordan was selected before Ezekiel Ansah, a 2015 second-team All-Pro.
2012: Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, and Shea McClellin were drafted before Chandler Jones, Oliver Vernon, and Malik Jackson, all Pro Bowlers.
2011: This class was stacked. Six defensive ends went on to make Pro Bowls, including the first three guys taken.
2010: Brandon Graham was selected before Jason Pierre-Paul, Carlos Dunlap, and Everson Griffen. While Graham hasn’t piled up the personal accolades of those three players, he has been a consistent, pressure-machine for the past nine seasons.
2009: Tyson Jackson was the first defensive end selected. Fellow draftees Brian Orakpo, Connor Barwin, and Hendry Melton all became Pro Bowlers.
Trading back is never going to please the majority of a fan base. The 49ers particularly need to hit in the first round, with Year No. 3 of the Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch regime in waiting and Jimmy Garoppolo set to return in 2019. Drafting the best player, and likely top edge rusher, is the immediate thought.
But the 49ers also need depth. Trading back and acquiring another first-round pick, along with additional draft assets, could serve the 49ers well, as long as they still pick the right player with the first-round pick they acquire.
Most draft experts have dubbed Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa as the top prospect in April’s draft. He has been linked to the Arizona Cardinals at No. 1 overall. This year’s class in particularly is deep at edge rush. If the 49ers trade down, rather than take Bosa or Kentucky’s Josh Allen at No. 2, chances are they will have access to another intriguing edge prospect.
“I would be a little hesitant to say, ‘No, we have to stay at 2. We have to get one of the top two guys, whether it’s going to be Nick Bosa or Josh Allen,’” Barnwell said. “You could trade down and get an equally valuable player, get a depth piece for your football team, maybe an extra first-rounder if one of those quarterbacks come up.”
Listen to the podcast below. To hear Barnwell on the draft, skip to the 5:50 mark.