© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
No head coach or general manager will admit he’s pursuing a player until after the deal is done. That’s why John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan said little when they were asked last week about Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, two alpha receivers featured in the trade rumors that have dominated the offseason.
After his fourth question about Brown, Shanahan put the topic to rest.
“I cannot talk about another player who is not under contract with us,” Shanahan said.
One day later, Lynch was asked about trading for Beckham, and he regurgitated the same answer as Shanahan, while fidgeting and recycling grins, as if he had a secret he knew he couldn’t tell. Both Lynch and Shanahan said they had not reached out to the Steelers about Brown, shifting the focus to Beckham.
This is the reality: we do not know if the 49ers have contacted the Giants about acquiring Beckham, who is under contract through at least 2020. We do not know if the 49ers are intrigued enough to exchange several assets, including the No. 2 overall pick, though reports have indicated they have had “real interest” in the Giants receiver since last year. The Giants have been open to offers for Beckham.
If Shanahan’s and Lynch’s previous comments — on a variety of topics pertaining to this one — are any indication, their interest in Beckham is indeed real. But is it real enough to surrender the No. 2 overall pick and top edge rusher Nick Bosa? With the Arizona Cardinals’ growing interest in Kyler Murray at No. 1 overall, it seems more and more likely Bosa falls to the 49ers.
Last year, at the annual owners’ meetings, Shanahan fielded questions about Julio Jones, another star receiver who apparently grew disgruntled with his contract situation. Jones achieved the best season of his career under Shanahan in Atlanta.
“If there is a Julio available and you have the opportunity to get him, go get him. It’s worth it,” Shanahan told reporters. “Whatever that price is, whatever that draft pick is, go get him. There’s not too many Julios on this planet.”
Jones and Beckham are different players, but they belong in the same category. They hold the top two yards-per-game averages in NFL history, with Jones at 96.7 and Beckham at 92.8.
Beckham has reached many pinnacles faster than any receiver in NFL history. He was the fastest receiver to 3,500 yards and 200 receptions. He was the first receiver with four consecutive games of 130 yards or more. He is the only receiver with at least 80 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in his first three NFL seasons — and he easily cleared those marks.
The 49ers have gone after big-name trade targets under Lynch and Shanahan, including Khalil Mack. Lynch said the 49ers made an offer similar to Chicago’s, which ultimately landed the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year.
“(We) came close on a couple other ones,” Lynch said in December. “We won’t stop. You can’t score if you don’t shoot, so we’ll keep shooting if those opportunities are there.”
With about $67.5 million in cap space this offseason, the 49ers have the resources to pursue a player like Beckham. Last year, however, Lynch said he won’t pursue “splash” signings just for the excitement. The 49ers brass has made it clear the team doesn’t need an All-Pro receiver.
“There’s so many different ways you can do things,” Shanahan said in December about fielding a roster. His history with maximizing talent, and meshing good players into great offenses, speaks for itself.
But…
“There’s only like five legit No. 1s in the league,” Shanahan said, according to the Athletic. “We just need a good receiver. We just need a man out there, a guy like a younger Pierre (Garcon).”
Beckham’s potential availability coincides with the 49ers’ need for a “Z” receiver to replace Garcon, who was officially waived Thursday. The upcoming free agent receiver class is thin. The 2019 draft class is deep at the position, and with the No. 2, No. 37, and No. 67 picks, the 49ers have the assets to draft a top receiver. They could also use those picks to acquire Beckham.
Year No. 3 in Shanahan’s and Lynch’s six-year contracts comes with loftier expectations than either of the first two. Relying on a rookie receiver who has to learn a foreign playbook and adapt to the NFL could inflict the growing pains we have seen throughout the past two years. All of the 49ers receivers, aside from Marquise Goodwin, enter either their second or third NFL seasons. The statistical leader of that group, Kendrick Bourne, tallied just 487 receiving yards in 2018.
Adding Beckham, a 26-year-old in his prime, would immediately elevate the 49ers offense. In a best-case scenario, consider: Jimmy Garoppolo throwing to Beckham, George Kittle, and the Jerick McKinnon-Matt Breida-led backfield. Dante Pettis progresses in his sophomore year, and Goodwin’s speed is unleashed strategically. The offensive line improves in its second season as a unit.
Acquiring Beckham will come at a steep price. The question is, how much are the 49ers willing to give up?
The trade, at a minimum, would involve the 49ers trading their No. 2 overall pick for the Giants’ No. 6 overall pick. The 49ers would potentially add a second-rounder or a pair of mid-to-late-round picks. That would mean the 49ers would probably not land Bosa, the draft’s consensus top prospect who would fill the team’s edge-rush void.
With the sixth pick, however, the 49ers would still walk away with an instant difference-maker, whether Josh Allen (unlikely), Quinnen Williams, or Ed Oliver. Perhaps the best fits are Brian Burns and Montez Sweat, speed rushers that just blew away the NFL Combine. The long list of quality edge rushers in the upcoming draft class, along with those set to hit free agency, allows the 49ers to make a move for Beckham.
“The last three years, I haven’t seen this many top guys like this (year’s draft),” Shanahan said last week about the defensive linemen prospects.
Let’s weigh both sides of the Beckham-Bosa dynamic.
- If the 49ers draft Bosa at No. 2 overall, they will likely miss out on Beckham. Say they sign a free-agent receiver like Tyrell Williams, who will carry a hefty price tag in a market devoid of many young, quality options. The 49ers could also draft a receiver. (This is the best-case scenario in a Beckham-less world.)
- If the 49ers trade for Beckham, they could draft a player like Burns, whom many draft experts and evaluators feel is the second-best edge rusher in the class, at No. 6 overall. Even if the 49ers lose a second-round pick in the deal, they would have already filled the receiver void. They could address the other areas of need (inside linebacker, free safety, tackle, and more EDGE depth) later in the draft.
It’s hard to argue that the latter scenario doesn’t put the 49ers in a better position to win now.