© Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
The 49ers (11-3) lost another close game in the final seconds on Sunday night, falling 29-22 (with a final-play lateral touchdown skewing the scoreline) to the Atlanta Falcons (5-9). Sunday’s loss was different than San Francisco’s previous two in that it was not against a top-tier opponent and was the result of the 49ers playing completely below their standard.
Yet, for the first time in six years, the 49ers are back in the playoffs, thanks to the failings of the Los Angeles Rams (8-6), who were battered by the Dallas Cowboys 44-21 on the road. What that means is the 49ers are still in control of their own destiny in terms of clinching the NFC West.
The scenarios
Scenario No. 1: 49ers win out
If San Francisco beats the Rams at home next Saturday and beats the Seattle Seahawks (11-3) on the road in Week 17, they will clinch the NFC West division title regardless of what anyone else does. This is the saving grace of the 49ers’ success; they have guaranteed a playoff spot and can still win the division without anyone else’s help. They would also clinch the first seed in the NFC and have a first-round bye.
Scenario No. 2: 49ers lose to Rams, beat Seahawks
The most likely result of this scenario is that the 49ers would clinch the NFC West next week. The Seahawks are facing the 3-9-1 Arizona Cardinals at home on Sunday, and if the 49ers lose to the Rams and the Seahawks win, the division title would go to San Francisco (assuming they beat the Seahawks in Week 17), with a few caveats.
If the Seahawks were to be surprised by the Cardinals and lose, however, the result of the Rams game would be moot. A 49ers win in Seattle would secure the NFC West title.
Here is where it gets complicated. The NFL’s top-five division tiebreakers, in order, are as follows:
- Head-to-head
- Division record
- Common games record
- Conference games record
- Strength of victory
- Strength of schedule
- Combined ranking among conference teams
Head-to-head would obviously be even, as would division record (with all the same wins and losses, both with one to each other and one to the Rams). Both teams also have identical records in common games, having beaten the Rams once, Cardinals twice, Bengals, Browns, Buccaneers, Panthers, Steelers and both having lost to the Ravens.
The only difference in common games is the 49ers’ loss to the Falcons and victory over the Saints and the Seahawks’ victory over the Falcons and loss to the Saints. As far as win-loss-tied goes in common games, it evens out for the tiebreaker.
Conference games are also equal, with both teams winning in their two unique games (49ers beat the Redskins and Packers, Seahawks beat the Vikings and Eagles).
So it goes to strength of victory, which interprets just wins and the combined records of teams beaten. Currently, that’s where the 49ers would have the edge. With records against all common opponents equal, there are three games that would come into play for each team.
For the 49ers, it’s their wins over the Saints (11-3), Packers (11-3) and Redskins (3-11), a combined 25-17 record.
For the Seahawks, it’s their wins over the Vikings (10-4), Eagles (7-7) and Falcons (5-9), a combined 22-19 record.
But there are still two weeks to play, with a chance that those combined records could change. If those Seahawks teams go a combined 4-2, and the 49ers’ teams go 1-5, the records would be even at the conclusion of the season. The chance of that would be boosted with a Vikings win over the Packers next week.
The tricky thing about the Saints and Packers are that the 49ers hold tiebreakers over them, but only if they were to win the division. So, if the Packers lose to the Vikings and the 49ers lose to the Rams but beat the Seahawks, it would guarantee a first-round bye for San Francisco as at least the No. 2 seed, unless those aforementioned opponents even their records out.
Here’s the remaining schedules for those teams:
Saints: Titans, Panthers
Packers: Vikings, Lions
Redskins: Giants, Cowboys
The Redskins could well lose those two games and even the Titans and Panthers aren’t the most straightforward. If the Packers lost to the Vikings, the Saints won out and the Redskins lost out, however, that would be a combined 3-3 record, meaning the Seahawks’ opponents would have to go 6-0, which seems unlikely
Vikings: Packers, Bears
Eagles: Cowboys, Giants
Falcons: Jaguars, Buccaneers
If those records were even, that would also mean the next tiebreaker, strength of schedule (combined record of opponents, regardless of result) would be even, considering the only unique teams would have evened out their records.
It would then go to combined ranking among conference teams, which measures points scored and allowed amongst conference teams. This, of course, would favor the 49ers, who have 161-to-26 net point advantage over the Seahawks, who tend to win close games.
To recap, if the 49ers lose to the Rams, they want at least one, and probably both of the Packers or Saints to lose in one of their two final games, assuming the trio of the Vikings, Eagles and Falcons don’t go a combined 6-0. At the same time, if both teams were to have catastrophic final-game failures, it could cost them the division.
Scenario No. 3: 49ers beat Rams, lose to Seahawks
The Seahawks would still claim the division with both teams at 12-4, but the Seahawks having won both meetings. If the 49ers had tied the Seahawks in their first meeting, they could have clinched the NFC West in this scenario, but such is not the case. A loss in Seattle means the NFC West will be won by the Seahawks.
However, if the Vikings were to win out, this would send the 49ers all the way to the sixth seed, with an advantage against common opponents,
Scenario No. 4: 49ers lose to Rams, lose to Seahawks
This gives San Francisco no chance of winning the division, and would likely see them drop to the sixth, rather than fifth seed that they would likely be in, depending on what the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers do.
Here’s how this other set of scenarios would play out if the 49ers lost out:
Vikings beat Packers in Week 16, beat Bears in Week 17; Packers beat Lions in Week 17
The 49ers would be the sixth seed in this scenario, with the Vikings and Packers both at 12-4 and the 49ers at 11-5.
Vikings beat Packers in Week 16, lose to Bears in Week 17; Packers any result versus Lions in Week 17
This is a bizarre scenario. If the 49ers were to lose out and the Vikings were to beat the Packers, they’d be guaranteed to finish as the sixth seed, regardless of what the Packers do against the Vikings.
Vikings lose to Packers in Week 16, beat Bears in Week 17; Packers any result versus Lions in Week 17
This would guarantee the 49ers finish as the fifth seed (and likely face the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas).
CORRECTION: Some of the above scenarios were calculated using ESPN’s playoff machine, which incorrectly calculated the tiebreaker between the Seahawks and 49ers for Scenario No. 2. It will go to strength of victory should the 49ers lose to the Rams, which currently favors San Francisco, and in the case of a tie in strength of victory and strength of opponent, it would go to net points in conference, which the 49ers would have the edge in.