SAN FRANCISCO — The San Francisco Giants’ collective confidence couldn’t be higher as they prepare for the win-or-go-home Wild Card game against the New York Mets on Wednesday.
Some of that has to do with, once again, San Francisco finishing the season red hot, riding a four-game winning streak that included a playoff clinching three-game sweep of the Dodgers last weekend. But the Giants are excited to head to New York and face the dominant Noah Syndergaard for another reason: they have Madison Bumgarner.
“They have a good pitcher, we do too.” Angel Pagan said in the champagne and beer soaked clubhouse Sunday. “I have my money on my guy, I have my money on this team.”
And why wouldn’t he? Bumgarner’s 0.60 postseason ERA on the road is the best in baseball history. It’s not as if the sample size is minuscule either. Bumgarner has pitched in seven games away from AT&T Park in his postseason career and the Giants’ record in those games is 7-0.
One of those memorable road performances came in the 2014 Wild Card playoff in Pittsburgh, where Bumgarner tossed a shutout in a 8-0 victory. That game was the first chapter in a legendary 2014 postseason for Bumgarner, who put up a 1.03 ERA in 52 and 2/3 innings, and a 0.43 ERA in 21 World Series innings, including an unforgettable five inning relief appearance on two days rest in Game 7.
No wonder the Giants are excited to play the Mets on Wednesday.
“I don’t think it bothers anybody to go on the road and play these games,” Brandon Belt said. “It’s actually a lot of fun. You know with Bumgarner on the mound we’re gonna have a good shot.”
That’s putting it mildly, especially when you consider Bumgarner’s history at Citi Field, where he’s gone 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA in his career. Bumgarner faced Syndergaard in his only appearance at Citi in 2016, and easily outdueled the 24-year-old, throwing six shutout innings in a 6-1 victory.
None of this is to say that the wunderkind Syndergaard is any kind of slouch, with the highest average fastball speed in the majors and a 2.60 ERA that ranked third-best in the NL this season, one spot ahead of Bumgarner’s 2.74 mark. The last time Syndergaard faced the Giants he was dominant in his own right, tossing eight innings of shutout ball, allowing two hits on August 21 at AT&T Park.
Syndergaard was good, if inconsistent, in his first postseason test last year, going 2-1 in three starts (including a Game 3 win in the World Series) while posting a 3.32 ERA.
Bumgarner chuckled when asked what makes the man they call “Thor” so effective.
“Well, it’s his 100 mph fastball he can command really good, and his 94 mph slider,” Bumgarner said. “You don’t see that every day. But I’ve got all the confidence in the world behind my guys there. I’m excited and ready to go.”
Even if Bumgarner is in top playoff form, the Giants offense will have to perform better than they did against Syndergaard in the last go-around to have any shot to advance to the Division Series and face the Chicago Cubs.
The question is, which version of the Giants offense will show up?
San Francisco’s run production was wildly inconsistent in 2016. In the season’s first half, the offense wasn’t exactly explosive, but ranked 11th in runs scored, good enough to hold the league’s best record when combined with excellent starting pitching. Production dropped precipitously in the second half, though, with only Oakland, Miami and Philadelphia scoring fewer runs after the All-Star break. That might come as a shock if you only caught the Giants’ last two series, where they knocked around both the Rockies and the Dodgers for 38 runs in six games and looked as potent with the bats as they have all year.
The Mets offense was the polar opposite, scoring only more runs than the Phillies and Braves in the first half, while improving to 10th in runs scored after the break. New York’s offense lives and dies with the long ball, with 218 homers in 2016, the fifth-highest total in the majors.
If recent history is any indication, that’s good news for the Giants on Wednesday. Bumgarner has faced 111 batters at Citi Field in four starts in his career, and hasn’t once allowed a ball to leave the yard. He has, however, allowed a career-high 26 home runs this season.
“Man, I know this sounds stupid, but it’s like any other game,” Bumgarner said. “You can’t try to read into it and change what you’ve been doing. You’ve just got to go out and compete and give the team a chance to win.”
To say Bumgarner has the statistical edge is obvious, as that’s always going to be the case with his history of postseason dominance, especially on the road. Facing a talented pitcher in his own right, Wednesday will likely come down to whether the Giants can continue to ride the offensive wave that unexpectedly began to crest last week. Trying to predict that is a fool’s errand considering how erratic they’ve been all season. Bumgarner has been the opposite of that throughout his postseason career, and that fact alone is enough to have the Giants’ confidence on the rise leading into the do-or-die contest.
“I think any team would love to go into a one game playoff with Madison on the bump.” Sergio Romo said. “He’s a workhorse, he’s been that since he showed up. What he’s meant to us throughout his career, unbelievable. It’s hard to not be confident.”