“The Giants are rushing Madison Bumgarner back.”
I’ve seen this posted in Facebook comments, reply tweets, LinkedIn profiles, you name it.
Everywhere you turn, a Giants fan frustrated by the way the first half of the season unfolded has another reason to take out their anger on San Francisco’s front office.
And believe me, I get it.
Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer are incredible pitchers, and with each passing season, those three players continue to build Hall of Fame resumes. But if it’s Game 7 of the World Series and you have your choice of a horse to ride, San Francisco fans are taking the pitcher who looks like he grew up raising actual horses.
Over a nine-year Major League career, Bumgarner has a 2.99 earned run average, six separate seasons with at least 190 strikeouts, four All-Star appearances, and sure, in case you’re new here, he has three World Series titles.
And along the way, Bumgarner’s been pitching on a remarkably team-friendly contract. Essentially, he’s been the Steph Curry of the Giants.
From 2013-2016, Bumgarner made four straight All-Star teams, yet never once collected more than $10 million in a single season. When Bumgarner signed his first “big” Major League extension prior to the 2012 campaign, he already had one title to his name, but his five-year, $35 million deal wasn’t expected to pay such remarkable dividends. In fact, Bumgarner had just weathered an up-and-down 2011 season, but gave the Giants hope for the future with a dominant stretch in August and September of that year.
But over the past four seasons, the Giants have dished out just $24 million to the left-handed ace, making him one of the best bargains in baseball during that span.
Over the same four-year period, the Golden State Warriors paid Curry an average of $11 million, and all he did was bring two titles and an MVP to the Bay Area. This offseason, Curry finally cashed in, signing a five-year, $201 million extension that will keep him with the franchise through the end of the 2021-2022 season.
For the better part of three years, everyone knew the day Curry would break the bank was coming. It was just a slow crawl to said day.
The parallels between Bumgarner and Curry are strong. A pair of homegrown talents who signed team-friendly deals early in their careers both became faces of their respective franchises. Yes, Bumgarner shares the spotlight with Buster Posey, and Curry has the best supporting cast on the planet, but when those two stars are on their game, it’s the closest the Bay Area gets to Friday Night Lights in small-town America. It’s a shut down the office early and get out to the stadium type of affair.
That’s also why there’s an overarching sense of fear among Giants’ fans surrounding Bumgarner right now.
After Bumgarner crashed his dirt-bike and suffered a Grade 2 shoulder sprain in the middle of April in an off-the-field incident that had no business taking place, the left-hander has been determined to come back to the mound and make up for lost time.
If you’ve watched Bumgarner pitch in October, you know intensity is a defining part of his makeup. So after making his first trip to the disabled list for what he knows is an unacceptable mistake, it’s natural to assume he’s trying to rush back to the field.
When Bumgarner received the diagnosis following his injury, the Giants didn’t anticipate to have Bumgarner back until the end of July, provided there were no setbacks. If that was the case, then why, with a 34-56 record at the All-Star break, is San Francisco trotting out their ace in the middle of the month.
On the surface, it doesn’t make sense. But after watching Bumgarner navigate his bullpen sessions, listening to his comments after each rehab start and understanding the Giants’ approach to his recovery process, it all adds up.
At each step of his rehab process, Bumgarner has carefully consulted with the Giants’ training staff and Bochy, who have closely monitored their ace’s every move. If Bumgarner didn’t look and feel like himself, San Francisco never would have toyed with the idea of letting him throw to AAA and A hitters. If Bumgarner didn’t have it within himself to spin off breaking pitches or swing a bat, there’s no way the Giants would have felt comfortable activating him for the start of the second half.
What do the Giants stand to gain by pushing him out at the middle of the month instead of letting three more potential starts pass and giving him August and September to prove himself? Nothing. That’s why Bumgarner is more than likely healthy and ready to pitch.
There’s always the possibility that Bumgarner is jumping the gun, or keeping valuable information about how his shoulder feels from the Giants, but he knows just as well that three additional starts mean nothing in the long run. He also knows that any additional damage he does to his body hurts his future negotiating leverage. So if Bumgarner thought he needed to step back and take a few more weeks, he probably would have.
Another faction of fans doesn’t want Bumgarner back at the end of July, they want him back and healthy in 2018. Take the rest of the year, off, they say. It’s an inconvenient truth for this vocal group, but if Bumgarner is healthy and wants to pitch, the Players’ Union exists to allow him to do so.
Ultimately, the Giants and Bumgarner are past the point of no return. He’ll pitch on Saturday evening, and sure, Bochy can limit his innings over his next few starts, but then, it’ll be evaluation time.
For the first time in his career, Bumgarner is returning from a serious injury that kept him off the field for an extended amount of time. How will he bounce back? Will his command take a turn for the worst? Will his velocity dip? Over the next two and a half months, the Giants will scout Bumgarner closely, determining whether he’s worth the type of extension Curry received from Golden State.
Remember, early in his career, Curry dealt with horrific ankle injuries, as the Warriors’ guard played in just 26 games in the 2011-2012 season and had already undergone a serious surgery by the time Golden State placed their faith in him with a four-year, $44 million deal. Curry prove
At this point, Bumgarner is still under team control for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but eventually, the Giants will have to make a decision regarding how much of their payroll they’re willing to commit. If they go too long without offering an extension, Bumgarner could decide that regardless, he’ll test the open market when his contract is finally up. If the Giants pony up this offseason, they might be able to sign Bumgarner for slightly less than they once expected, given the severity of his injury.
Now that both sides are comfortable with Bumgarner taking the mound, the Giants will monitor their star left-hander closer than they ever had before.
At one point in his career, Curry’s shaky ankles were certain to diminish his market value over the course of his career. Two weeks ago, he signed what was then the largest contract in NBA history. Now, it’s Bumgarner’s turn to prove his shoulder is just an unexpected road bump on the path to the finish line. The Giants have always wanted Bumgarner to be a mainstay atop their rotation, and on Saturday, he’ll take the latest, most uncertain step toward proving he’s worth it.