The race to win the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes is on, and if you’re keeping tabs on the San Francisco Giants’ involvement, you’ll notice they aren’t pacing themselves.
It doesn’t matter if the Miami Marlins would prefer a marathon to a sprint, because as long as the Giants remain invested, the competition is a 100-meter dash.
It could take until after Christmas, perhaps even January for Miami to agree to a favorable deal that would allow the Marlins to effectively slash their payroll and add a handful of high-level prospects. Eventually, a team like the Boston Red Sox, the St. Louis Cardinals or Los Angeles Dodgers could wait out the Marlins and their peers and use the depth of their farm systems to create a package the Giants simply can’t match.
But if the Marlins move the finish line back, the Giants won’t just slow down on the track, they’ll pull out of the race altogether.
To understand where the Giants stand in their pursuit of the reigning National League MVP, it’s imperative to recognize the organization’s historical track record, but also to realize the sense of urgency San Francisco’s front office feels this offseason. The Giants are a team, at least under current general manager Bobby Evans and vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean, that addresses their shortcomings in a swift and smooth manner. They’re also a franchise coming off a 64-98 season with needs that stretch well beyond acquiring one of the game’s transcendent power hitters.
To put it simply, the Giants don’t wait to make decisions, and if they suddenly decided to change course, San Francisco would risk missing out on other critical opportunities to upgrade its roster.
Since taking over as general manager before the start of the 2015 season, Evans has signed three high-profile free agents, and all of those additions have taken place by mid-December. When the Giants felt compelled to provide their rotation with outside reinforcements in 2015, Evans signed Jeff Samardzija to a five-year deal during the first week of December, and waited just 10 more days to ink Johnny Cueto to a six-year contract.
After the 2016 season, the Giants were determined to fix a leaky bullpen by locking up a veteran closer. With Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon all on the market, Evans moved quickly to sign Melancon to a four-year, $62 million deal that signaled the toppling of the first domino. That deal was completed on December 5.
In each of those cases, the Giants had the luxury of dealing with players and agents on the free agent market. This time, Evans and Co. are forced to play by the Marlins’ rules. In theory, that could keep San Francisco biding its time until Miami does its due diligence with the many other suitors who will undoubtedly check in on Stanton in the coming days and weeks. In reality, the Giants have too many other holes to fill to entertain the prospect of a waiting game.
Since the regular season ended, multiple reports have indicated the Giants are Stanton’s most aggressive suitors, the likely favorites to land him if a deal gets done, and the team that’s most willing to take on a massive portion of the remaining $295 million on Stanton’s contract. The Giants’ assertiveness shouldn’t come as any surprise, though, considering the needs Evans and Sabean outlined at the start of the offseason. After a fifth-place finish, San Francisco is dedicated to adding a center fielder, a third baseman and bullpen help. Acquiring Stanton wouldn’t allow the Giants’ front office to put a check mark through any of those boxes.
What acquiring Stanton would do, however, is provide the Giants’ lineup with a game-changing power hitter and the franchise with an MVP-caliber player in the prime of his career. Stanton will hit home runs and sell tickets, and for the foreseeable future, turn San Francisco into a team that can compete for a playoff spot on an annual basis. That’s why, even if a deal doesn’t take place within the next month, it’s impossible to rule the Giants out altogether.
Still, the Stanton sweepstakes, coupled with a delayed announcement of a posting agreement that impacted the timeline for a potential Shohei Otani free agency, have already delayed the start to an offseason that will be filled with twists and turns for San Francisco.
The Giants will be linked to every young center fielder that plays clean defense, and once Stanton is dealt (whether it’s to the Giants or another team), San Francisco will be mentioned as a landing spot for quality third basemen, too. Eventually, the Giants will sign or trade for a reliever or two, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. For the offseason domino effect to take place, as it did in the closer market after the Giants signed Melancon last year, Evans will have to learn exactly how Miami plans to handle Stanton.
So far, all indications point to a deal being completed within the next three weeks.
If I had to make an educated guess, I’d suspect trade talks and reports of potential deals will heat up come Monday and Tuesday, and teams like the Giants will have a better handle on the timeline the Marlins would like to use by the end of the week. If the Giants emerge as Stanton’s eventual team, I’d anticipate a final swap to be announced sometime between December 5-7.
A potential danger for San Francisco is the upcoming Winter Meetings, which will take place between December 11-14. If the Giants make it to that point without a trade, it could allow for teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox, which aren’t as pressed at other positions, to engage in more serious discussions. Those discussions could lead to a trade coming down between December 18-22 (or even later), and at that point, it could be too late for the Giants. With a luxury tax threshold to consider, other trade candidates and free agents to focus on and a slew of team needs to address, Evans knows he can’t let the offseason drag on.
While their peers can run lap after lap, this year’s Giants are built for a sprint. If it turns out acquiring Stanton will require patience, persistence and pace, San Francisco might be built for the wrong race.