Twenty five years to the week after the Giants signed Barry Bonds and saved baseball in San Francisco, the franchise is waiting on a decision from another generational talent.
Trading for Giancarlo Stanton wouldn’t be the most significant transaction in Giants’ history, but it would represent a watershed moment for a franchise at a crossroads. Though Stanton is reportedly not interested in accepting a trade to San Francisco, events that unfold over the next seven-to-10 days could force a change of heart.
The Giants’ pursuit of the 2017 National League MVP is not a behind-closed-doors mission, but rather a very public quest to entice the game’s greatest power hitter to waive his full no-trade clause and make baseball in the Bay Area relevant again. Regardless of whether Stanton becomes so disgusted with the Marlins’ current path that he opts to move to a team he clearly has strong reservations about playing for, the Giants have reached a point in the offseason at which the franchise is boarding a ship, and setting sail toward the future.
As of December 8, the Giants don’t have a clear destination in sight, as general manager Bobby Evans and vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean will have to navigate the murky waters surrounding baseball’s Winter Meetings, the rough seas of the free agent market, and the relatively uncharted territory that could come with making blockbuster offseason trades. What is increasingly clear, though, is that however Evans and Sabean decide to steer the vessel, the Giants’ determination to contend next year means the path they take could shape the franchise’s ability to factor into the National League West for the next decade.
Without even making a move this offseason, the Giants already possess the second-highest payroll in baseball. That’s thanks to several large commitments, including one of $18 million the Giants owe Hunter Pence, and one of more than $11 million they owe Denard Span. Those contracts, though, will come off the books after the 2018 season, as Pence is a free agent and the Giants will almost certainly buy out Span’s 2019 option. It’s financial relief, to be certain, but the future beyond next year is still relatively grim.
No franchise in baseball has more money committed to players in 2019 than the Giants, who already have $146 million on the books, which is $30 million more than the next closest team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 2020, the situation doesn’t improve much, as Evans has committed $112 million to a roster that’s still two and a half years from taking the field. What might be most alarming about the franchise’s future financial pledges, though, is that ace Madison Bumgarner will make just $12 million in each of the next two seasons before he’s scheduled to become a free agent.
The 2017 season proved the Giants’ core, which based on payroll includes Buster Posey, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Mark Melancon, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, is flawed. It’s a larger core than ones other franchises have built around, and perhaps the Giants built it after winning three World Series titles with the belief that it was too big to fail. But as the Great Recession taught us, nothing is too big to fail.
Giants fans love when the team is the center of Hot Stove discussions. The franchise’s aggressive approach to acquiring Stanton and Japanese two-way star Shohei Ohtani has dominated social media, and re-energized a fan base that just sat through a 64-98 season that provided a harsh glimpse into the franchise’s future outlook. Evans and Sabean are now determined to create positive change not just to push San Francisco back into contention, but to convince Giants ownership the duo is deserving of the positions they hold. The problem, for that pair and everyone within the Giants’ front office, is the franchise doesn’t have much flexibility.
Should Evans and Sabean tap into the free agent market and offer big-money contracts to center fielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Todd Frazier, the Giants would be awarding money to players on the wrong side of 30 who will only add to the payroll in years like 2020 and 2021, when the franchise will be almost assuredly be loaded down with sunken cash, or finally capable of rebuilding. While Cain, Frazier and any number of free agents could help engineer an immediate turnaround, they could just as easily add to an already unstable core that’s growing older and less athletic.
There’s a belief among many fans that free agency is the best course of action, because a franchise with a revenue stream like the Giants can withstand surpassing the luxury tax threshold year-after-year. But what happens in 2019 and 2020, when the product could become so watered down on the field that fans stop showing up to AT&T Park? The Giants would still be tied down financially, and that’s when the pain caused by the luxury tax would truly begin to kick in.
By signing free agents and surpassing the luxury tax, the Giants would be mortgaging the future because the franchise would forfeit draft picks. And if your team looks bad and your assets can’t be traded, the only way out is a strong farm system.
Right now, the Giants don’t have a strong farm system, and they don’t have a lot of financial wiggle room. Many fans believe the franchise “prints money,” and while that’s true to a certain extent now, a few more 70-win seasons with high-priced assets failing on the field could turn into a financial disaster. And I’m not talking about $25 garlic fries.
That’s why “creativity” as Evans put it, or trades, could be the franchise’s saving grace. The Giants can’t afford to make bad personnel moves, because one or two additional big-money debacles might set the franchise back for years. So one of the ways they can lessen the odds of future failures is by hand-picking proven players on other teams and working to acquire said players. These moves will cost the team prospects, and could force San Francisco to take on unwanted salaries, but if Evans and Co. can craft separate deals for a third baseman and center fielder, it could go a long way toward helping the Giants climb out of the whole they’ve already dug.
With Ohtani off the board and Stanton wavering on his decision, the moves Evans and Sabean make over the next week-to-10 days will dramatically alter the future of the franchise. With Winter Meetings approaching, free agents will begin to sign contracts and trades will either be brokered or fall through.
After aiming high in a public fashion at the beginning of the offseason, the Giants have set the bar and fan expectations have followed suit. Whether Evans and Sabean can execute a comeback plan remains to be seen, but they’re already on the clock, and it’s now ticking faster.