J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta and Mike Moustakas all have two things in common.
They’re all high-profile free agents, and they all remain unsigned.
In more traditional years, at least three or four of those players would have inked significant long-term deals by now, but the 2017 offseason has proven to be anything but traditional. It began with a wildly unpredictable race to see which team could entice Giancarlo Stanton to waive his no-trade clause and continued with the bizarre sweepstakes for mysterious two-way Japanese star Shohei Ohtani.
The general manager meetings took place more than a month ago, the Winter Meetings are almost two weeks old, and still, the vast majority of the best players on the market remain available. Why are so many stars unsigned? And how does this impact the Giants? Let’s take a look at what we know.
The competitive balance tax has changed the marketplace
The 2018 free agent class is dripping with talent. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado could sign mega-deals, while Clayton Kershaw has a chance to opt out of his contract and demand a king’s ransom. Josh Donaldson and Charlie Blackmon will be available and so will middle infielders like Elvis Andrus (opt out) and Brian Dozier.
Because previous competitive balance tax offenders like the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs are eager to make a splash next offseason, they’re all considering building out rosters with payrolls below the $197 million CBT threshold. Doing so would allow each team to reset their luxury tax penalties, so they’re not paying higher taxes when they break the bank next year.
It’s a smart tactic and a strategy that positions each franchise well for the 2018-2019 offseason, but it’s killing the current demand for free agents. Why sign Lorenzo Cain or Jay Bruce and pay the luxury tax this year when you can find a superior talent next offseason?
The Giants, of course, are also attempting to stay under the CBT threshold, which has taken another financial powerhouse out of the free agent arms race. San Francisco doesn’t have the flexibility to pursue a player like Martinez, and the Giants are also trying to avoid surrendering draft picks by signing players like Cain and Hosmer who received qualifying offers from their respective teams.
As a result of baseball’s current landscape, nearly every team is in a wait-and-see mode, as teams like San Francisco hope certain free agents cave and take smaller deals.
Everyone is waiting on the Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox reset their CBT penalties by staying under the $195 million threshold in 2017, and every executive knows Dave Dombrowski must counter Brian Cashman and the Yankees’ move to trade for Stanton.
The Red Sox are the favorites to land Martinez, and it’s possible they also pursue Hosmer. Boston still wants to avoid a harsher tax by keeping its payroll below $237 million next season, so it’s likely the Red Sox are waiting for the market to die down which could allow the team to nab both Martinez and Hosmer this year.
Once the Red Sox do make their first move, there should be a ripple effect. Other power hitters are waiting for Martinez to set the market for their own services, so at some point, the dominoes will start to fall.
If Boston signs Martinez, the Giants should inquire about the availability of center fielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. The Red Sox center fielder finished eighth among all Major League outfielders in Outs Above Average (a new defensive metric) and he has a controllable contract through 2020. San Francisco could flip top prospect Chris Shaw –a Massachusetts native and Boston College product– and perhaps a Minor League pitcher or two to snag Bradley, Jr., who would become expendable after a Martinez signing.
The “other” free agents also need landing spots
While there’s bound to be concern in the Martinez, Hosmer and Arrieta camps as free agency drags on, there could be panic among the middle-of-the-pack free agents who are also looking for a pay day and an opportunity.
The market isn’t exactly flush with right-handed power hitters who can fill a void for the Giants in a corner outfield spot, so San Francisco is reportedly taking a look at every option on the board, including Bruce. Bruce’s agent appeared on KNBR earlier this week and suggested the Giants would be a great fit for his client, which is relatively awkward considering it’s a bit uncommon for agents to pump their clients up on a team’s flagship radio station. Nevertheless, it’s the type of power play that indicates Bruce and several other free agents sitting below the top tier of the class are concerned about the offers they’re receiving and eager to jump aboard with a franchise that can compensate them.
Outside of Bruce, the Giants should also consider former Rockies’ outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, who is reportedly interested in signing a one-year deal to re-establish his value for next offseason. The price for Gonzalez was believed to be in the $14 or $15 million range, but as time moves along, that figure could fall to a more reasonable number that might interest the Giants. Jarrod Dyson and Jon Jay are two other outfielders the Giants might look at, but Bruce and Gonzalez check the “power hitter” box the franchise is interested in addressing.
The trickle-down effect should help the Giants
Whether it’s through another creative trade, or through a slow-developing free agent market, the Giants have the opportunity to benefit from this year’s odd offseason.
By pulling off a “cash-neutral” swap for Evan Longoria, San Francisco already added a middle of the order bat and found its starting third baseman for the next few seasons. Now, the Giants have anywhere between $15 and $20 million depending on various estimates to allocate among new acquisitions.
It’s hard to imagine the Giants dumping another Major League asset like Denard Span or Matt Moore in a future deal because doing so would just create another hole, but what’s left of the team’s farm system should still be on the table. The Giants could take a financial risk by trading for Yankees’ center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and asking New York to include 22-year-old outfielder Clint Frazier in the deal, or they could attempt to acquire a center fielder like Bradley, Jr. or the Nationals’ Michael Taylor in a deal for prospects.
Taylor is another name to follow because Washington is a dark horse in the Martinez sweepstakes, and he would be an instant hit for the team at the top of the lineup. There’s also Randal Grichuk and Harrison Bader of the Cardinals, Kevin Pillar of the Blue Jays and perhaps Keon Broxton of the Brewers. At any rate, the Giants don’t have a ton of options within their own system that would thrill other teams through trades, so San Francisco might be forced to wait out free agency.
Because the Longoria trade didn’t add to San Francisco’s bottom line in 2018, general manager Bobby Evans could have enough flexibility to sign an outfielder like Bruce, an additional arm for the bullpen and still nail down a trade for a center fielder that would keep San Francisco under the CBT threshold. The Giants could also sign an outfielder like Gonzalez, trade for a center fielder and a reliever and have a bit more room under the CBT.
As Christmas approaches, the Giants still have plenty of opportunities to execute the type of transactions the team needs to have a shot at contending in 2018. Though that wouldn’t be the case in most years, CBT penalties and a monster free agent class next offseason have changed the way many franchises are looking at their roster makeup.