© James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Staley knows Seattle. He knows the 49ers haven’t won there since 2011 (and have beaten the Seahawks once in their last 12 meetings), and his younger teammates are aware of that history, filled with constant agony, of both the mental and physical sort.
But they do not have that same frame of reference, no memory of the in-prime Marshawn Lynch running rampant, or Jim Harbaugh having Pete Carroll-induced conniptions on the sideline while that notoriously thunderous Seattle crowd roared from start to finish. Jimmy Garoppolo has never played in Seattle.
This 49ers team is not burdened by that history. Unless, of course, that historic trend continues.
That is revealed even in the way Staley and co. have talked about this matchup as opposed to year’s past. He was blunt last year, saying, “I just want to f-ing win here so bad… It just sucks to not have success here.”
Staley hasn’t lost any edge, but he bit his tongue a bit more this year.
“We look forward to the challenge of playing up there,” Staley said this week, according to Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s somewhere where it’s known we haven’t won there in a while.”
They were already dealt a painful hand in the 28-25 Week 10 loss to the Seahawks in Santa Clara, when Jadeveon Clowney hassled Staley — who hinted that he maybe wasn’t fully recovered from from a fractured fibula in that game — and Jimmy Garoppolo, with no George Kittle and almost none of Emmanuel Sanders, had his last “is he actually good?” performance of the season (24-of-46, 248 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).
Since that game, Garoppolo has thrown 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with an elite 69.8 completion percentage and an average of 273.2 yards per game and two game-winning drives. His four game-winning drives on the season are fourth-best in the NFL and he’s established himself quite clearly as at least the 10th-best quarterback in the league.
But that Week 10 affair, like so many of these meetings, was one play from ending with a different result; a result (tie or win), which, of course, would have already sealed the NFC West division title for the 49ers.
One Chase McLaughlin field goal or some time-friendly play-calling from Kyle Shanahan would have rendered the result of Week 17 moot. But Shanahan understandably went for the win (you can be sure he’ll take a tie if he has the chance on Sunday) and it’s fittingly come down to this.
It’s almost too perfect a billing. The 49ers will play the Seahawks in the final game of the NFL regular season, in a nationally-televised game that will play a cosmic-sized role in Super Bowl chances.
If San Francisco loses, they will drop to the fifth seed and Seattle will finish at least as the third seed. If San Francisco wins, they take the top seed and Seattle will drop to the sixth seed.
The last time a wild card team made a conference championship game was the Harbaugh-era 49ers in 2013. That run infamously came to an end in Seattle. Last year’s Super Bowl featured a pair of No. 2 seeds in the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots, but in the five years prior, Kyle Shanahan’s No. 2-seeded Atlanta Falcons were the only non-top seed to make the Super Bowl. Put simply, no team in the past six years has made the Super Bowl without being a top-two seed.
It is… important.
No West Coast team has ever made the Super Bowl as a Wild Card. That 2013 rejection in Seattle was the closest in recent memory, but the reality is clear: if the 49ers win, they get a week off, home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and are favorites to make the Super Bowl.
If they lose, the scenario becomes dire. They would be favorites in a likely Wild Card playoff against the Philadelphia Eagles (or Dallas Cowboys), but with the following rounds weighted against them. The lack of a rest week is the most damning part of that equation.
But, for the first time in more than a half decade, the expectation is that the 49ers will win in Seattle. They are favored there for the first time since December 24, 2011 (a 19-17 49ers win). There is a palpable unease amongst the Seattle fans I’ve talked to here following a bizarre, 27-13 battering at home by the Arizona Cardinals, and the loss of all three running backs and starting left tackle Duane Brown.
Lynch and Robert Turbin have come back into the fold in a fever-dream like cameo situation, and the 49ers will have both Kittle and Sanders at full health, though without Dee Ford and likely without Jaquiski Tartt. Crucially, the 49ers’ Saturday matchup against the Rams provided an extra day of rest for a weary defensive line that lost another member (Jullian Taylor) for the season.
While the 49ers defense has fallen from the grace of its early season excellence, Garoppolo, Shanahan and co. have taken grasp of the season in a way that seemed doubtful through a questionable first third of the season.
Both teams love to run the ball and are second (49ers) and third (Seahawks) in rush yards per game. Wilson has been suspect at best since that meeting in Santa Clara (6 TDs, 3 INT, a 61.74 completion percentage and 228 passing yards per game) compared to a stellar Garoppolo.
With more defensive line rest facing a beaten-up Seattle offensive line, a depleted Seahawks running back corps (though discounting Lynch would be foolish), and the 49ers’ fire-under-rear attitude following that let-off loss to the Falcons, it is their game to lose.
But, it’s still a game in Seattle. The Seahawks still have Wilson (who is tied for the league lead with five game-winning drives), Pete Carroll and their fans — who, as Carroll said this week, are, “going to be frickin’ flying off the top of the roof.” For as much as the 49ers should win, it will take a spectacular, well-executed rebuke of all those ghastly past Seattle memories to affirm their destiny as the NFC’s Super Bowl favorites.