INDIANAPOLIS — Combine Week is finally, firmly in the workout portion. The majority of the week has thus far been medical tests, closed-door meetings and an (un)healthy dose of media noise.
Why a safety could be in play for 49ers
The final position group to speak to the media on Friday were defensive backs, a group that might just be the most intriguing from the 49ers’ perspective. Jimmie Ward is a free agent and all four of the secondary’s remaining starters — Jaquiski Tartt, Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and K’Waun Williams — will be free agents next year.
Simply put, the 49ers have to start assessing how they’re going to replenish that secondary now. Emmanuel Moseley will be a restricted free agent next offseason which means he’s likely safe for the next two seasons, but the cap space in Santa Clara might be even tighter next offseason than this year.
That’s especially true once/if DeForest Buckner and George Kittle sign monumental extensions.
Tarvarius Moore and D.J. Reed are both on cheap deals through 2021, and discounting their potential as starters at free safety and nickel would be foolish.
Still, both have evident flaws in their games and wasted the first years of their NFL career playing the wrong position (Moore at corner and Reed at safety). While the 49ers have expressed a belief that Moore is a better fit at free safety, it’s likely he gets some run at strong safety this summer so they can assess if they have a backup plan should Tartt walk next summer.
That’s why, when considering the possibility that Ward, coming off his best season, prices himself out of the 49ers’ range and departs, they are being mocked by many to draft a safety.
Why Davis?
One name that’s been floated is LSU safety Grant Delpit, who showed tremendous athleticism, instinct and ball skills in his sophomore and junior years, but struggled with injuries and has some tackling issues that appear to be related to a bad, surgically-repaired shoulder (his ankle is also a problem). If health wasn’t an issue, he’d probably be a sure top-15 pick, but that’s not the case right now.
Even with that uncertainty, he’s being projected by many to go before the 49ers’ 31st pick, and even if he does fall, it’s not clear he’s the type of safety the 49ers would be looking for — he’s rangey, long, intelligent and athletic, but doesn’t break hard toward the ball and his closing speed is questionable.
That’s why there’s been growing buzz about another young safety, Cal’s Ashtyn Davis, who’s much more in the mold of Ward, with a stockier frame, fantastic closing speed and ability to flip his hips and follow deep routes effectively.
Here are Davis’s measurements compared with Ward’s:
Davis: Height – 6’0 7/8″, Weight – 202, Hands – 9 3/8″, Arms – 30 1/2″, Wingspan – 75 1/8″
Ward: Height – 5’11”, Weight – 193, Hands – 9 3/8″, Arms – 31″, Wingspan – 77 1/8″
He was coached by the recently-hired secondary coach of the Dolphins, Gerald Alexander, who moved Davis, a Pac-12 Championship-winning hurdler and walk-on to the Cal football team, to free safety in his fourth season.
Davis, a Santa Cruz native, credited his parents, Sean and Christine, for allowing him to pursue his football career. He said took out loans in order to allow him to quit track and focus fully on football while staying at Cal.
When asked where if he had to choose who to play for, Davis pointed to his childhood team first.
“I grew up a Niners fan, so it’d be nice to be close to home and whatnot,” Davis said. “But the politically correct answer that you gave me is I’ll go wherever, whoever wants me.”
If the 49ers were to draft Davis, it would likely indicate that Jimmie Ward ended up elsewhere in free agency (begins March 18, with the NFL Draft beginning April 23). If the 49ers drafted Davis after re-signing Ward, it would probably mean another one of two-year deal for Ward. Even if Ward left, Moore would have more experience and a better chance to win the starting job in year one.
One option and bonus to drafting Davis is his versatility. Having come from a background as a corner, he proved he can line up in the slot effectively, and could well go the Jimmie Ward route if called upon, by playing nickel in his first few seasons.
“I’ve played corner, I’ve played nickel, even WILL in a couple of packages and obviously safety,” Davis said Friday. “So I think that I’m comfortable everywhere on the field but I think that my deep defense is my best attribute.”
Davis’ closing speed, range, physicality, hands (he was a wide receiver in high school) and ability to make intelligent reads of the quarterback are all enticing. He lights up the tape, and it’s evident just how valuable he was to Cal in how they spread him around the field, being used as a nickel, single-high, two-high, or even as a quasi-linebacker.
Davis’ biggest knocks are the fact that he sometimes takes poor angles to the ball, and can struggle in the run game (the inverse of Moore). His work in the run game needs to improve and his tackling isn’t always with tremendous form. One reporter read specific criticism of his game to him that he can “be reckless as a downfield tackler.”
“That’s fine,” Davis said. “I always have a chip on my shoulder. I don’t need someone to say something negative about me for me to be motivated.”
The greatest asset from his track background was a necessity for internal motivation, Davis said. Whereas football practices and offseason programs are more organized and group-oriented, he said track required him to take it upon himself to improve himself.
Davis said he enjoys watching film of Micah Hyde, Harrison Smith and Earl Thomas, something that was brought on by Alexander, who likened his game to Hyde’s.
Here’s his breakdown of his interception of Oregon’s Justin Herbert, who is projected to be drafted in the first round. Davis said he works with Herbert at Proactive Sports at The Marke, a training gym in Santa Ana, and pokes fun at him about the pick.
Found one of my early draft crushes….Safety Ashtyn Davis
Drops down into the slot, takes outside leverage, lulls Herbert to sleep then breaks on the throw with incredible acceleration. Fearlessly catches the ball in traffic and returns it for a big gain! pic.twitter.com/sBV0TZ4HfK
— Cover 1 (@Cover_1_) January 9, 2020
The John Lynch connection
There’s another, less-than-blatant reason the 49ers’ interest could be piqued: Davis has a direct connection to John Lynch, whose game film he said he’s watched “a ton of.”
Cal safety Ashtyn Davis and Bay Area native, who grew up a #49ers fan, said he’s watched “a lot of John Lynch tape.” pic.twitter.com/CnBcmnzku9
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) February 28, 2020
Davis told KNBR he’s met Lynch, who he said is “close with my agent,” Ryan Williams, of Athletes First agency. And no, Davis said, Lynch (a high-profile Stanford alumni) hasn’t given him any stick for being a Cal guy.
How did Williams initially get his start? By booking Lynch a gig in a Campbell’s Chunky soup ad campaign. Specifically, this ad, in all its nostalgic glory, which ran after Lynch and the Jon Gruden-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003.
Williams confirmed that the pair have maintained that now-17-year relationship since that Campbell’s spot, posting the picture below on his Twitter account the day after the 49ers beat the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game.
He believed in me when I was 23. I’m 40 now. What I’ve learned from @JohnLynch49ers is far more valuable than anything that I’ve done for him. I couldn’t be more honored and proud to see his @49ers vision come to fruition. One more to go! @AthletesFirst pic.twitter.com/BMEg8IG9Mt
— Ryan Williams (@RyanWilliamsA1) January 20, 2020
There are a number of complicating factors going into whether the 49ers actually pursue a safety in the draft, which mainly revolve around whether Ward returns on an affordable deal, and how much value the team believes it can find by holding onto its first-round selection as opposed to drafting down.
One thing that helps them, if they do have interest in Davis, is the fact that he won’t be able to participate in most of the Combine drills due to a groin injury he sustained November 30. The fact that it’s lingered to this point could be a major concern for some teams, and prevents him from showcasing his athletic abilities on a national stage.
While he was mostly a hurdler, he ran a 10.72-second 100-meter time in April of his sophomore year. Using this extraordinarily unofficial calculator compiled by a user on Reddit, that projects for his 40-meter time to be between the 4.4 and 4.5-second mark.
Even though he expects to run at his Pro Day, his lack of health and inability to run at the Combine will be a net negative on his draft stock. Another negative is his age. Having graduated as redshirt senior (five years), Davis, at 23.4 years old, is one of the older prospects in the draft, and if a team is conflicted between him and someone like Antoine Winfield Jr. (age 21.6), they’ll likely opt for youth.
That may benefit the 49ers, or any other team that hopes he’ll fall into the second round even though he said he still expects to be ready to perform the same drills at his pro day on March 20. There’s a good chance the 49ers trade out of the first round, and/or franchise tag and trade Arik Armstead to try and get into the second, third and/or fourth rounds, where they currently have zero picks.
If the 49ers like what they see and get the chance to draft him, their opinion of him is only likely to be amended by his nature. Cal head coach Justin Wilcox described him as “zero maintenance,” and for having an almost lunatic-like work ethic.
“I’m a pretty low key guy, not really getting into trouble and I come in here to work every day, and you don’t necessarily need to motivate me,” Davis said. “I’m pretty internally motivated. I don’t need the crowd. I’m here because I love the game.”