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How cruel life is in the NFL. Few teams know that more intimately than the San Francisco 49ers, suffering through the vicissitudes of a 2020 which have seen them choke away a Super Bowl victory and left them reeling with more season-altering injuries than are able to be counted on both hands and feet.
They seem unwilling, or unable, to tank the season away. They are comprised of a coaching staff too talented, a roster, though gutted, now emboldened with the optimism of returnees and a much-needed bye week to provide reprieve from this languorous season; in other words, down, but somehow not quite out… yet.
That optimism may prove short-lived, as there are now nine members of 49ers on the reserve/COVID-19 list, starting with a reported positive test from Arik Armstead.
Logic points to this team leaning closer to a 7-9 record or worse than going 5-1 down the stretch and eking out a playoff berth. The remainder of this season is discernibly an exercise in self-evaluation and long-term planning. It may represent an internal audit of talent.
The most pressing question of course regards the plan at quarterback next season. The more they lose, the more appealing the options.
Question number two is also obvious; what do the 49ers do with Trent Williams?
Trent Williams
After three monumental, paradigm-shifting left tackle deals for Laremy Tunsil, Ronny Stanley and David Bakhtiari have that trio set to make $19.75 million, $22 million and $23 million per year, respectively, 49ers Executive VP of Football Operations Paraag Marathe will be hard-pressed to use anything but age against Williams in contract negotiations.
The 49ers did, however, buy some goodwill earlier this year by giving Williams a restructured deal which basically amounted to an advance on his contract and removing the option to franchise tag him after this season, per ESPN’s Field Yates.
As part of his reworked contract with the 49ers, OT Trent Williams cannot be franchise tagged after this season, per source. The eventual goal for both sides remains a long-term deal for the 7-time Pro Bowler.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) June 23, 2020
Tunsil and Stanley are 26, and Bakhtiari is 29. Williams, 32, turns 33 next summer. The question is not about his talent. It’s what the 49ers deem that talent being worth and whether they see Williams, renowned as an athletic freak, as being able to sustain his performance for at least another three years a la Andrew Whitworth (yes, he sustained an MCL injury, but was playing at an elite level at age 39).
There are two courses of action. Pay Williams roughly $20 million per year for probably four years, or let him go. The franchise tag would have been a helpful option in the team’s back pocket, but they probably bought goodwill in contract negotiations by eschewing it.
For reference, because the NFL uses an archaic system which doesn’t differentiate between offensive line positions, the franchise tag, per OverTheCap, is projected at a *mere* $14.15 million next season for offensive linemen.
To be sure, there are options in free agency at left tackle: Russell Okung, Alejandro Villanueva, Jason Peters, Garrett Bolles, Cam Robinson.
But any of those would be settling when you have arguably the league’s premier left tackle. If I were a betting man, I would expect San Francisco to bite the bullet and pay Williams. By getting rid of the franchise tag option, they’ve lost much of their leverage and cashed it in for whatever goodwill is worth.
For those concerned about cap space, you should be. Given John Lynch’s expectation that the cap is set at a minimum of $180 million and using OverTheCap’s figures, the 49ers currently have about $27 million in cap space next season… with just 34 players signed to the active roster.
Now, if the cap doesn’t drop significantly, re-signing Williams becomes less a question of if, than when. But the doomsday scenario can’t be ruled out. A $180 million cap would represent an $18.2 million drop from this season, and in practice, more like $28 million given that the cap usually rises by about $10 million each year.
There are a few easy ways to clear space, but if you extend Williams, it immediately gets tight again. Examined in Monday’s mailbag:
At last check, the 49ers had $3.55 million in current cap space, per the NFLPA. That’s sure to shrink with practice squad activations, but may leave a couple million to roll over into next year’s salary cap. Lynch, per an interview with KNBR’s Greg Papa, said he expects the salary cap to be set in the range of $180 million to $195 million.
Assuming the cap is set at the worst figure in that scenario, $180 million, the 49ers would have roughly $23.5 million in cap space. There are a number of ways to clear much, more more. Here are a few:
Cuts:
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Saves $24.1 million
- Dee Ford: Saves $6.43 million
- Weston Richburg: Saves $4.89 million
- Robbie Gould: Saves $3.75 million
- Mark Nzeocha: Saves $1.6 million
(Note: Because the NFL uses the Top-51 rule which counts just the 51 most expensive salaries on the cap there’s usually around a $600,000 discrepancy. So, for example, if Nzeocha is cut, it would save the team closer to $1 million, because the first player outside of the top-51 would be bumped up in his place).
Cutting both Laken Tomlinson and Raheem Mostert would save more than $7 million combined, but both are going to be around next year. Those five cuts would give the 49ers roughly $64 million in cap space.
Maybe you try and draft a rookie tackle instead. In one sense, that’s enticing, given that it would save roughly $17 million or more. The thing is, if you’re drafting a rookie quarterback especially, don’t you want the blind side shored up? The more prudent move is to extend Williams, to ensure that rookie, or whoever’s at quarterback next year has adequate protection and doesn’t fear for his life every snap.
Draft a rookie tackle in either the following rounds and/or draft one early in 2022, when Mike McGlinchey will likely be on the final year of his deal (see more on him below). The reason teams are giving out earth-shattering deals to left tackles is because they’re worth it. Williams is worth it.
Laken Tomlinson
Left guard Laken Tomlinson, who had his contract restructured and extended this year, referred to himself and Trent Williams as the “best left side” in the NFL. That’s probably a tough argument to make against pairings like the Colts’ Anthony Castonzo and Quenton Nelson or the Titans’ Taylor Lewan and Roger Saffold, but it’s not an outrageous leap… that is, except for the number of times Tomlinson has thrown pass rushers into Williams.
Sometimes Tomlinson appears like an indomitable, top-10 guard who was obviously worth the Detroit Lions’ first-round selection back in 2015. But other times, he appears astonishingly out of sorts; missing crucial second-level blocks in the run game, struggling with exchanges with Williams, or just getting taken to task by pass rushers.
For the most part, Tomlinson is a well above average and reliable guard.
But if you’re planning to extend Williams, there are concerns about the comfortability he and his left-side partner share.
Look back at this sack against the Eagles in Week 4. Williams was fine, until Tomlinson launched Josh Sweat away from him and towards C.J. Beathard.
And here’s that oddity that’s happened a few times this year on the botched exchanges; Tomlinson, in an effort to move onto the edge who’s stunting inside, sacrifices Williams by throwing the rusher into him (also: watch Ben Garland and Mike McGlinchey on this play. It might have been the worst blocking display by the 49ers this season, which is where Jerick McKinnon is at his best).
What you’d like to see, especially if you’re Paraag Marathe and potentially about to cut an exorbitant check for Williams, is that he and Tomlinson can coexist. Now, that’s not a prerequisite; it’s much harder to acquire an elite tackle than it is a very good guard, and if the partnership doesn’t work out, then Tomlinson could be expendable.
But right now, Tomlinson is the only clear member of the offensive line who will retain his position next year (probably McGlinchey, too, but his shaky performances don’t make that a lock), so if you’re going to lock down your franchise tackle for the future, it would ease the nerves to have some confidence that he and his partner have some symbiosis.
Mike McGlinchey
What is Mike McGlinchey? He has this all-too-common defense of himself by saying the lowlights of him are unreasonable… because they don’t happen all that often.
You know what doesn’t happen all that often? Offensive tackles getting pancaked. And the truth is that happens to McGlinchey… well, often.
It even happened to McGlinchey against C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who weighs 210 pounds, according to the Saints’ roster, in a run blocking situation. McGlinchey, who admitted he lost weight, said he was around 295 pounds starting this season. Despite having the added weight of a newborn calf and three-quarters of a foot on Gardner-Johnson, this happened:
For reference, Trent Williams, who’s three inches shorter than the 6’8″ McGlinchey, is listed at 320 pounds. Laremy Tunsil is listed at 6’5′, 318 pounds, Stanley at 6’5″, 315 pounds and Bakhtiari at 6’5″, 310 pounds.
The point is, McGlinchey is way too lean for a position which demands the ability to anchor.
At his best, he’s dominating in the running game and feeding off that confidence as a pass blocker.
Yes, most of the time he looks fine in pass protection. Most tackles do. There are plenty of solid reps. But he gets put on his rear constantly and has allowed the second-most pressures on the line. He suffers from an uncommon lack of balance which seems potentially unfixable.
In shorter pass sets, or play-actions, he’s fine because it doesn’t rely on him getting deep into his set. When the 49ers drop back though, that’s when he’s liable to mistakes.
Are the 49ers really going to pick up a $13-plus million fifth-year option for McGlinchey in 2022 when he’s not reliable in traditional pass sets? I highly doubt it. There is far too much tape showing how easy it is to reverse pancake him.
That’s not to say that it’s stupid to keep him around. You’ve got one more year to see if he can potentially add weight and correct any of these glaring holes in his game. But if he doesn’t, the 49ers will have to decide whether they need to swing for another young tackle or look to free agency for help.
Daniel Brunskill
Is he a guard or a center? Is he actually better as a tackle? What is transparent is that Brunskill has a role, at the very least, as a rotational player. The question is where he fits in. Because if you believe he can start at center, then maybe you just run it back with Brunskill and Ben Garland next year and cut Weston Richburg.
If not, you’ve got another right guard competition with Brunskill as the favorite, and you might need to look to free agency or the draft for a center. Or maybe you don’t even believe he’s capable enough to start, and that leaves a two-position void to fill.
He struggled mightily through the first six games of the season at guard, allowing by far the most pressures and quarterback hits. He used a stellar performance against Aaron Donald as a launch point for the rest of the season, but continues to struggle getting to the second level. There’s a clumsiness there that seems related to getting comfortable at the position; he gets tripped all too often and finds himself stumbling towards linebackers and defensive backs without a hope of clearing them out.
When he does get to the second level, he’s agile enough to be an invaluable bulldozer, no doubt a product of his tight end days at San Diego State.
For Brunskill, the remainder of the season is determining where he fits best and what type of offer to make him. He will undoubtedly have league interest, and as a restricted free agent, could be due for a reasonable payday at the second round tender or an extension. OverTheCap projects the first round tender at $4.87 million, the second round tender at $3.42 million and the original round tender at $2.24 million.
Weston Richburg
Cutting him seems the likeliest course of action. It would come with a dead cap hit of $6.97 million, but also save $4.9 million. If he’s kept around, he’ll cost $11.86 million on the cap next year. After restructuring his deal once, San Francisco restructured it a second time this year, taking on a heavier salary burden in this season (which they offset by restructuring Laken Tomlinson’s deal), making him more palatable to cut this offseason.
Down the stretch last season, he unquestionably raised this team’s ceiling with his athleticism and knowledge of the offense, but he cannot stay healthy and is far too expensive to warrant holding onto. If San Francisco cut him and drafted a center with the first overall pick next year, they’d still be saving money.
There are free agent options like Alex Mack, Mike Pouncey, Corey Linsley, or Austin Blythe, who could all be targets if San Francisco cuts bait with Richburg, and either declines to go the route of the draft, takes a late swing in the draft, or puts Brunskill at right guard. Whether they want to go the expensive route again at center is an entirely separate question.
The rest: Garland, McKivitz, Skule and Coleman
Ben Garland signed a one-year, $2 million deal, and will probably want more long-term security, though his persistent ankle injuries at age 32 don’t exactly help his case. Clearly the 49ers like him as their insurance policy, and he proved to be a fantastic one in 2019. Another reunion, perhaps of the two-year variety for the team’s interior safety valve could be in the cards.
Colton McKivitz needs to prove he’s an NFL player. Before the bye week, he was brought in, then pulled after blocking the wrong direction on 4th-and-1, then reinstated towards the end of the game. San Francisco needs to find out if he can be a reliable backup guard, let alone a starter. Tom Compton clearly is not the future at the right guard position. Could McKivitz be that guy? It doesn’t seem overly encouraging given his low snap counts at this juncture, but he was mostly solid in pass protection in his limited reps against New Orleans and will probably get more of a run down the stretch, especially if the season continues to go sideways.
Colton McKivitz went the wrong way https://t.co/8ZYGIJIoxw pic.twitter.com/ZlZPYZ0FpO
— Jake Hutchinson (@hutchdiesel) November 15, 2020
Justin Skule has looked lost this year after a surprisingly capable year in which he came in for Joe Staley to perform at least competently. He was absolutely torched against the Packers. His spot isn’t guaranteed next year, and he’ll likely only get his chance to prove he should remain during camp and maybe a preseason game or two, if there are any.
Shon Coleman has been the forgotten man after tearing his ACL in the first preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys last year and opting out of this season as a high-risk opt out. But he’ll presumably return next year, and will be in contention for the swing tackle backup spot with Skule. Before suffering a torn ACL, he was the clear No. 3 tackle in order and looked not just serviceable, but like a bully. He’s strong, athletic and could move well, and would be a sneaky addition by lack of subtraction.
Correction: An earlier version of this story discussed the franchise tag for Williams. The 49ers agreed to remove that option when they restructured his deal early this year.