© Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
It’s not over… yet. Thanks to the Rams folding into themselves like a lawn chair against the 49ers for a fourth-straight time, San Francisco still has a viable, if not treacherous route to the playoffs.
The remaining schedule is as follows.
- Monday, December 7 vs. Buffalo – Hosted in Arizona
- Sunday, December 13 vs. Washington – Hosted in Arizona
- Sunday, December 20 at Dallas
- Saturday, December 26 at Arizona
- Sunday, December 3 vs. Seattle – Location TBD
There are a few routes to make the playoffs. Obviously, winning out and finishing at 10-6 would accomplish that.
Currently, at 5-6, San Francisco is seventh, sitting one place behind the 6-5 Arizona Cardinals, who choked away a game they should have won versus New England this weekend.
The most important division games not including the 49ers are as follows:
- Week 13: Arizona at Los Angeles
- Week 16: Los Angeles at Seattle
- Week 17: Los Angeles at Arizona
Seattle has an astonishingly easy schedule over the next four games: Philadelphia, New York Giants, New York Jets, Washington. They’ll likely screw that up somehow, but still probably finish out with control atop the division.
The most viable path to the playoffs is going 4-1, winning both division games. If either Los Angeles or Arizona sweep each other and San Francisco finishes 4-1, that notches a playoff berth.
Arizona’s remaining schedule: vs. Los Angeles, at New York Giants, vs. Philadelphia, vs. San Francisco, at Los Angeles.
Los Angeles’ remaining schedule: At Arizona, vs. New England, vs. New York Jets, at Seattle, vs. Arizona.
Below are the tiebreaking procedures:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory.
- Strength of schedule.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
- Best net points in conference games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss.
Let’s say Arizona and Los Angeles split their remaining two games. Arizona goes 3-2 down the stretch, finishing 9-7. Los Angeles loses to Seattle, finishing 10-6.
The 49ers go 4-1, losing only to Buffalo, finishing 9-7.
San Francisco and Arizona would be tied.
The first tiebreaker goes to games within the conference. If San Francisco (currently 3-5 in conference) wins its final four games, they’ll finish 7-5 in the NFC. If Arizona goes 3-2 (all conference teams), they’ll finish 7-5 in the NFC.
Then it goes to common games.
Currently Arizona is 6-3 in those games. San Francisco is 5-4.
If Arizona finishes 3-2, they’ll have a 9-5 record in common games. If San Francisco finishes 4-1, they would have a 9-5 record in common games.
So… strength of victory. That’s the combined record of teams both have defeated. Basically, who are teams the 49ers have beaten that the Cardinals haven’t, and vice versa.
Given that Arizona has already beaten the Bills, a 49ers loss in that scenario would leave them hoping the Rams and Patriots finish out strong.
Excluding the teams both have beaten (Giants, Jets, split with each other, split with the Seahawks) and assuming this scenario, here’s how that would look, based on current records. Rams, Bills and Eagles records all reflect projected results.
49ers: 13-11 (1.18 winning percentage) via wins over Rams (8-5 after splitting with Arizona), Patriots (5-6).
Cardinals: 12-10-1 (1.20 winning percentage) via wins over Bills (9-3 after beating 49ers), Eagles (3-7-1 after losing to Arizona).
If San Francisco beats Buffalo and instead wins all but against one of Washington or Dallas, they’ll be all but guaranteed to make the playoffs due to strength of victory. Here’s how that would look.
49ers: 13-11 (1.18 winning percentage) via wins over Rams (8-5), Patriots (5-6).
Cardinals: 8-14-1 (0.57 winning percentage) via wins over Eagles (3-7-1), Washington (5-7).
The other scenario is that Los Angeles loses both games to Arizona and finishes at 9-7. That would be straightforward, with the 49ers advancing. If that all reads as a bit complicated, it’s not. But it is challenging.
The 49ers almost certainly have to win four of their remaining five games and need both division games. If that happens, in spite of all evidence to suggest that it’s likely, well, this team might sneak into the playoffs.