© Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
There will be no reprieve from the debate over who should be the 49ers’ starting quarterback in 2021. When general manager John Lynch said that the team needs to upgrade at backup quarterback, it was couched as an insurance policy for Jimmy Garoppolo, who has only played one full season in his career. He threw his support behind Garoppolo as the starter while simultaneously point out that he’s not reliable.
When the season ended, Lynch and Shanahan said that they would evaluate quarterback like any other position, and would likely evaluate it more intently than in prior years due to C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens hitting free agency. They’ve long stated only a clear upgrade will result in Garoppolo being replaced, and it’s not quite clear that exists on the market for a reasonable price right now.
But if there is to be an upgrade at backup quarterback, you have to pay a premium in some form or fashion. That’s either an expensive free agent, which the 49ers cannot afford, a rookie, who can only reasonably expected to be an upgrade if he’s selected in one of the first two rounds, or… you make a trade.
The one name which continues to pop up in a theoretical trade discussions due to age, cost, and perhaps a bit too much optimism for talent clearly wasted, is Sam Darnold. The New York Jets’ third overall pick from the 2017 NFL Draft has been battered in every conceivable way, and hamstrung by two wasted years with the eyes-agog Adam Gase, a mostly horrible offensive line and underwhelming skill position players surrounding him, as well as myriad injuries and illnesses, ranging from mononucleosis to a sprained thumb to an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder.
Nothing like an insurance policy which needs its own insurance policy.
If traded, Darnold, slated for a $9.79 million cap hit, would cost the acquiring team just $4.77 million. For a backup quarterback who’s 23 years old who teams still believe was worthy of the third overall pick, that’s well below market value.
But the 49ers, even after having gained roughly $13 million in additional cap space over the weekend due to favorable contract adjustments (operating with about $23 million right now, based off a $180.5 million projected salary cap), would have a hard time retaining their own free agents or pursuing anyone else, like an upgrade at center, if they bring in Darnold.
And the cost to acquire Darnold, according to NBC Sports’ Peter King’s Monday column, is a second-round pick. King included the 49ers, not so surreptitiously, as his favorite destination for Darnold.
“Currently, [the Jets] own a decent piece of quarterback real estate in Sam Darnold. He’s worth, at least, a high second-round pick in this draft—39th overall to Carolina, maybe, or 40th to Denver, or 43rd to San Francisco. (The 49ers are my personal favorite).”
Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated also beat the Darnold-to-the-49ers drum on Monday, writing that at least eight teams have called about Darnold thus far, but that the Jets first want to evaluate all the rookie quarterbacks in this year’s draft in live throwing sessions, which will mostly take place this month.
“As for teams to watch, three in particular are interesting to me: Chicago, San Francisco and Washington. Two of the three, Chicago and Washington, were playoff teams in 2020, aren’t in striking distance to draft one of the top guys and may not think developing a rookie, given where they’re at, is the best play.
San Francisco would be even more fascinating. Darnold’s a strong fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and trading for him would make the Niners six years younger, and $20 million cheaper at the position in 2020. The Niners like Jimmy Garoppolo, as we’ve said here, and won’t move off him without a clear upgrade. Could Darnold be that?”
There are a few complicating factors in any deal for Darnold. The first is the cost; the 49ers have their entire secondary expiring, need a new center and probably a new edge rusher. Those are all premium positions for which they will have to pay in free agency and high in the draft. A second-round pick in this year’s draft, especially at 43rd overall, would expect to secure you a starter on a crucially affordable rookie deal for the next four years.
And again, Darnold would eat up nearly $5 million in cap space. That’s money that could be spent on the likes of Jason Verrett, K’Waun Williams, Kyle Juszczyk, Kendrick Bourne, Jaquiski Tartt and Emmanuel Moseley, as well as someone like Alex Mack or Corey Linsley in free agency.
Darnold’s health is also suspect. He can point to horrid offensive line play as the cause for injuries, but if you’re paying the premium of a second-round pick, do you do it for a guy who you can’t reliably bet on to stay healthy?
By that same token, and this is the more pressing question, is it worth it to cut into valuable cap space and give away a very high second-round pick for a guy who has, by all measures, been terrible for most of his career? Darnold was Pro Football Focus’ 35th-ranked quarterback last year. He was ranked 39th in 2019. He was ranked 32nd in 2018.
Everything with Darnold is betting on the Jets being so astoundingly incompetent, that his glimpses of brilliance are worth betting on. For a 49ers team that wants to remain competitive by adding an improved backup quarterback, maybe that upside in a competent organization is worth it. Darnold’s fifth-year option, at a cost of more than $20 million is also coming up, meaning he could be a very expensive one-year rental.