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How much is too much for an aging, but all-time great wide receiver? That’s the question Kyle Shanahan and the now first-round-pick-deprived (for the next two years) 49ers are likely wrestling with.
According to a recent report from The Athletic, the Atlanta Falcons would like to trade Jones, and may need to in order to sign their rookie draft class, due to salary cap constraints. The reasoning is explained more in depth here, but Atlanta has to wait until June 1 in order to reap cap savings this year. They’d save $15.3 million by trading him after that point, and then would have to pay him $15.5 million in dead, guaranteed money the following season.
For the acquiring team, he’d cost a fully guaranteed $15.3 million this season, $11.51 million next season, of which $2 million is guaranteed, and $11.51 million in 2023.
If he’s even close to the same Julio Jones we’ve witnessed for the past decade, that price tag is not unreasonable. And if the 49ers were to acquire him, they wouldn’t have to lean on him the same way Atlanta has.
With Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, you’d have an offensive group that would, by almost any stretch, be almost impossible to contain. And that’s separating that passing offense from a team which is founded on a dominant run game and just added two rookie running backs and a bulldozing right guard.
There are two real issues, though, with acquiring him.
While the 49ers technically have about $17 million in cap space, allowing them to absorb his cap hit, that’s without Trey Lance’s rookie cap hit of about $6.2 million. There’s also the looming issue of Fred Warner’s contract extension, and the cost of promoting and signing players during the season as injuries crop up.
Some options available to them are to restructure Arik Armstead or Jimmie Ward’s contracts, which could save the team up to roughly $4 million with each player. They could also extend Laken Tomlinson, who’s due $6.59 million this season, and drop his cap hit by roughly $3 million.
But more than likely, even if they did pursue those avenues, there would probably be at least a minor restructure in order. His money is already fully guaranteed this season, but San Francisco could push some of that to later seasons, and would likely have to guarantee him money next season, when just $2 million of his deal is guaranteed.
As far as contracts go, it’s tricky to fit him in, but it is very much doable. The report from Brian Schultz of The Athletic also suggests that the Falcons could eat more money on that deal as a sweetener to get it done.
The real nebulous question is the other price tag. What can Atlanta get for him?
If it’s a first-round pick, the 49ers are obviously not in contention. If it’s a second or a second and slightly more, then you’re at least in the ballpark of possibility. But if the Falcons want a second and multiple thirds, that’s probably too steep a price for what would be something of a luxury upgrade.
I’ll refer you to this Kyle Shanahan quote from 2018.
“If there’s a Julio Jones available and you have the opportunity to get him, you go get him,” Shanahan said. “It’s worth it. Whatever the price is, whatever the draft pick is, go get him.”
The thing is, the 49ers are very clearly missing a starting slot receiver, at least in three wide receiver sets for third down packages. Jones isn’t a slot receiver, but if you acquire him, you don’t really have to worry much about alignments, or who will fill that role.
While it would be a luxury pickup to some extent, acquiring Jones would immediately push the 49ers into that upper echelon of Super Bowl contenders, assuming he’s healthy. The major concern would be that the hamstring injuries that plagued him last year, coupled with his age and wear, could mean you’re buying in on a guy on the decline.
Still, Jones has only ever produced. He’s caught for 1,189 yards or more in seven of his 10 seasons. He’s never averaged fewer than 13.8 yards per reception. Even though he only played nine games last year, he had 51 receptions for 771 yards. The injuries are a valid concern, but he’s still got it.
Shanahan said this recently, on Michael Irvin’s podcast.
“Julio Jones, for everybody, especially if you had a chance to coach him, he’s what you’re saying and more,” Shanahan said. “I mean, the dude is one-of-a-kind. He makes coaching a lot — a lot — easier. That’s why everyone feels the same about Julio. That’s why I don’t worry about saying that. That’s like common knowledge. Everyone knows Julio is on a different level. That’s why he’s a special guy.”
Here’s my take: the 49ers should do it if it’s something like a second- and a fourth-round pick. They should obviously try to get Atlanta to eat some of his contract if possible.
This team is fundamentally built to win now, regardless of who’s the quarterback. In Jones, you’d give this offense an embarrassment of riches: Jones, Kittle, Aiyuk, Samuel, Juszczyk, Mostert, Wilson.
How on earth are defenses going to stop that consistently? And that’s just with Garoppolo at quarterback. They’ll get Lance reps, whether it’s in a limited role to make use of his athleticism or full time. And if you’re serious about winning a Super Bowl with this team this year, which, there’s every reason to believe is still the case, you do it (and then sign Zach Ertz, too, when the Eagles cut him).