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Whenever you go through the exercise of trying to predict a team’s record, the first question is always how they’ll fare against their division opponents. And while each team has its own process and tries to stick to that process for talent evaluation, finding scheme and locker room fits, etc., there is the reality that you have to peek over your shoulder and take a look at what your division opponents are up to.
As Kyle Shanahan recalled on the Flying Coach podcast with Sean McVay and Peter Schrager, the Rams effectively stole Matthew Stafford right out from under the 49ers’ nose. Were the 49ers really going to stand pat now that the Rams had a viable quarterback, and they clearly had the worst, and least reliable starter in the league? Absolutely not. Fast forward and Trey Lance is a 49er.
Later in that discussion with McVay, Shanahan revealed just how legitimate that in-division awareness is, saying that if the Rams had been players for Julio Jones, the 49ers would have had to trade for him. Jones, as Shanahan famously (or infamously) once said, is a guy you trade whatever you have to in order to acquire. The Tennessee Titans ended up sending a second-round pick in 2022 and a 2023 fourth-round pick in exchange for Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick
“That’s our biggest fear in Julio, is that Sean’s gonna go for him,” Shanahan said. “Like my first choice is, ‘Man, I just wish Julio would go to the AFC, but if he’s going to the NFC West, we got to make sure we get him, because it almost ends up being an arms race. I know how good of a job Sean does, I know how good of a job Pete [Carroll] does, and I know how good of a job Cliff [Kingsbury] does, and everyone’s got quarterbacks.”
Shanahan said the perpetual arms race and absurd competition of the NFC West is ‘the most frustrating thing’ for him to deal with on a daily basis. There’s that idea of how the 49ers want to build a team and what assets they’re comfortable parting with, and then there’s the reality that you’re going to have a nightmare to deal with if you have to face Julio Jones twice a year and/or in the playoffs.
“I always say, ‘Let’s do it the right way,’ which there’s no right way or wrong way but you don’t want to have to risk your future to compete in one year, and that’s the hardest thing about being in our division, because I know how Sean rolls; that’s very similar to me, and I can see the other two guys in our division. So Julio would have helped everybody, but you know what it’s doing to your organization for that year and for the years to come. And that’s a really risky thing. But man, if Sean’s getting him, I’m gonna risk that. I know that’s how he thinks, that’s how we all think.”