© John Hefti | 2021 Aug 10
As Buster Posey continues to power the Giants to the best record in baseball, buzz about whether he can contend for his second career National League Most Valuable Player Award feels inevitable.
Posey’s case is peculiar. To save his legs and extract more effective per-game performance, the Giants sit the 34-year-old catcher once per series, on average. Posey no longer plays first base. Because of this load management, Posey hasn’t reached the minimum plate appearances required to qualify for the batting title.
Still, in 77 games this season, Posey is slashing .331/.426/.549, adding up to an OPS higher than his 2012 MVP campaign (.975 to .957), one that would rank second in the NL among qualifiers. He’s tenth in the NL in Fangraphs’ total WAR (4.1), sixth among position players, and has hit 15 home runs. This all coming after he opted out of the shortened 2020 season.
Meanwhile, NL stars Fernando Tatis, Ronald Acuña and Jacob deGrom have missed time with injuries. According to recent lines released by Fanduel, Posey is tied for the seventh best odds to win NL MVP.
With 44 games remaining in the regular season entering SF’s series against the Mets, KNBR decided to poll several BBWAA members about where they stand on Posey in the MVP race context. Two BBWAA writers from each market vote on the award, though the organization switches voting assignments annually; each member reached by KNBR voted on the 2020 NL MVP, but may or may not have a vote this time around.
The sources remain anonymous because they aren’t permitted to disclose information about their ballots. In surveying them, some themes emerge about Posey’s improbable 2021 campaign and their reception to it.
There isn’t a clear-cut favorite in the race at the moment — it’s even described by one writer as “wide, wide open.” All are undecided on who their MVP pick would be at the moment. Only one voter out of a half dozen has ruled Posey out due to games missed. And lastly, Posey’s status as the most valuable even on his own team is in question because of shortstop Brandon Crawford’s reemergence.
“There’s no denying how good Buster has been,” one 2020 voter said. “Aside from the obvious slash line numbers, the fact he doesn’t strike out much, and he walks frequently, shows just how good a hitter he is. Another consideration I’d give to Buster is, in case of a tie with say, Bryan Reynolds, Buster is on a playoff contender. To me, that adds weight.”
In a strange way, the Giants’ 5-2 win over the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon captures the season Posey is having. Arguably the Giants most important player took his regularly scheduled off day, and his team won yet again, capturing its sixth straight series victory. There are varied perspectives on the impact of his lack of everyday reliability.
Some voters repeated the adage — in one form or another — “the best ability is availability.” At his current pace of playing roughly 66% of games, Posey won’t cross the 502 plate appearance threshold necessary to qualify for the batting title.
The one writer who believes Posey’s load management is likely disqualifying said “to be an MVP, you have to contribute every day. That’s why it’s rare that a pitcher is named MVP.”
Others, though, can look past the total numbers. They weigh Posey’s WAR — wins above replacement — as a barometer that even though he’s played fewer games, he’s still produced with the best in baseball.
“The MVP award should be based on what happened, not what might have happened,” one voter said. “That being said, it’s about value and not plate appearances. If Posey can produce similar or better value compared to his peers despite fewer plate appearances, that’s good enough for me.”
Two voters said they recognize Posey’s value but give his teammate Brandon Crawford a leg-up on the MVP ladder. Crawford, who signed a two-year contract extension over the weekend, is averaging career-highs in every major batting category while playing every game. His slash numbers still trail Posey’s, though he’s slugged four more home runs than Posey.
“The MVP race is tight enough that it probably will come down to who has the best final seven weeks,” a BBWAA member said. “I’m not a big ‘this guy pushed his team into the postseason and that makes him valuable,’ but sometimes it’s a good tie-breaker. That could help a player on a borderline team, such as Harper and the Phillies. It probably would help Posey if Crawford tails off — lowering his numbers on the year and increasing a (theoretically hot) Posey’s importance to the Giants, especially if they end up winning the division.”
In the NBA, the best player on the league’s best team typically wins MVP. There’s quite an argument, if the Giants continue to tear through their schedule, that Posey meets that description.
But this isn’t the NBA. M-V-Posey appears unlikely, but a path remains.