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Donovan Solano’s go-ahead home run was even unlikelier than you’d think

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© D. Ross Cameron | 2021 Aug 22


OAKLAND — After Darin Ruf grounded out to lead off the top of the eighth inning Sunday against the Oakland Athletics, the Giants, trailing 1-0, had a 12.5% win probability. 

At this point, you probably know the rest. 

Austin Slater battled back from a 1-2 count for a walk. Donovan Solano subbed out LaMonte Wade Jr. to face left-handed pitcher A.J. Puk. One pitch, one swing, history. Solano’s home run — as well as Wade’s the day before — made the Giants the first ever team to hit come-from-behind, go-ahead, pinch-hit homers in the eighth inning or later on consecutive days. 

History, as they say, is written by the victors. In this case, the main character is also quite the improbable protagonist. Solano, an infielder that doesn’t play every day, hadn’t gone yard in about three weeks — since Aug. 4. He’d only hit five home runs entering Sunday, tied with backup catcher Curt Casali and Mauricio Dubon for 10th-most on the ballclub. Per Baseball Savant, he’s in the 22nd percentile in hard-hits this season. 

“The power stroke hasn’t shown up quite as much this year, but we know it’s still in there,” Kapler said of Solano. “Certainly doesn’t surprise any of us in the dugout that Donovan was able to jump on that pitch.” 

Well, maybe it should’ve surprised them more. Solano’s eighth-inning blast, a 101.6 mph exit velocity shot to left field, was his first career pinch-hit homer in 203 plate appearances. It was the first time he’d ever faced Puk, and he only saw one pitch. The five-year major leaguer had also never gone deep in the Coliseum.

“First of all, I have never faced that pitcher,” Solano said postgame. “I know he has a very good fastball and a slider. So my mind was to go look for a fastball, maybe something close to my body, and thank God he threw me one. I just made a good swing at it.”  

Donovan Solano’s hitting breakdown, per Baseball Savant

 

To put Solano in position for his clutch slam, Slater — also pinch hitting — had to get on base. Kapler said he inserted Slater into the game because of the chance he could work a walk, but even that event was improbable; Slater’s 2021 on base percentage of .299 is below the MLB league average (.316). 

And remember: Solano isn’t exactly a slugger that stepped up to the plate and strike fear in A’s fans. To go along with his below average hard hit rate, his barrel rate (27th percentile) and average exit velocity (23rd percentile) project him as a contact hitter. 

To add to the unlikeliness, Puk hadn’t allowed a home run all season, albeit only in 7.1 innings pitched. Somehow, there was still a feeling of clairvoyance in the San Francisco dugout when Solano entered the batter’s box. 

“It’s kind of weird to say but you almost knew it was going to happen,” starter Logan Webb said.