With the 2021 MLB Lockout engaged, transactions across baseball are frozen. Teams had nearly a month after the World Series to make trades and free agent signings. But now, rosters are set for the foreseeable future — until the MLB Players Association and the league’s owners come to an agreement on a new CBA.
This inertia provides an opportunity to survey the National League West landscape. In that near-month, a lot changed in the division that produced the most regular season wins in the National League last year.
Here’s the state of the NL West:
San Francisco Giants
2021 record: 107-55
2022 committed payroll (including arbitration estimates) : $112.4 million
Key additions: Anthony DeSclafani (re-sign), Alex Wood (re-sign), Alex Cobb, Brandon Belt (qual. offer)
Key departures: Kevin Gausman, Buster Posey
Notable outstanding free agents: Kris Bryant, Tony Watson
The Giants began to accomplish their No. 1 priority: restocking their starting rotation. The front office views starting pitching not in a linear fashion, rather as having enough arms to shoulder a 162-game load. It’s likely SF adds one more veteran arm, and the way the free agent market has played out for starting pitchers, it may be more likely the Giants go down the trade route.
Despite some external disappointment that the Giants haven’t made a big splash, the $99.4 million San Francisco has spent so far is the fourth-most in the National League.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 record: 106-56
2022 committed payroll (including arbitration estimates): $229.9 million
Key additions: Andrew Heaney, Daniel Hudson, Chris Taylor (re-sign)
Key departures: Corey Seager, Max Scherzer, Corey Knebel
Notable outstanding free agents: Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly
Suddenly the Dodgers are in a similar spot as their Bay Area rivals: in desperate need of starting pitching help. As it stands right now, both Tony Gonsolin and Andrew Heaney project to be major components of LA’s rotation. It would be hard to imagine Clayton Kershaw in a different uniform, so if he decides to return he also could play a role.
Re-signing Chris Taylor to a four-year, $60 million deal may look like a steal, but the Dodgers may have to do more to replace the offensive production of Corey Seager, who signed a mega deal with the Texas Rangers.
Both the 107-win Giants and 106-win Dodgers, so far, have serious work to do. San Francisco should have more financial flexibility to accomplish it.
San Diego Padres
2021 record: 79-83
2022 committed payroll (including arbitration estimates): $180.4 million
Key additions: Nick Martinez, Luis García, Raymond Kerr, Jorge Alfaro
Key departures: Adam Frazier, Mark Melancon, Daniel Hudson
Notable outstanding free agents: Tommy Pham, Jake Marisnick, Vince Velasquez, Ross Detwiler,
Trading All-Star infielder Adam Frazier for Raymond Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier — two young players who may not make a major immediate impact — seems risky. But if Kerr, a hard-throwing lefty reliever, could help replace Mark Melancon and Daniel Hudson, it could be worth it.
The biggest changes in San Diego haven’t come with player transactions. Former Athletics skipper Bob Melvin is taking over for Jayce Tingler. There have been other shake-ups in San Diego’s front office, from farm director on up.
With Melvin in charge, the Padres should be set up well to bounce back from their disappointing 2021 season. The talent is still there, with Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado in the infield. Getting Yu Darvish and Blake Snell healthy and effective again will be key, as will trying to improve a Mark Melancon-less bullpen on the margins.
Colorado Rockies
2021 record: 74-87
2022 committed payroll (including arbitration estimates): $90.8 million
Key additions: Jhoulys Chacin (re-sign), Daniel Bard (re-sign)
Key departures: Jon Gray
Notable outstanding free agents: Trevor Story
Colorado’s offseason thus far has been defined by a strange Jon Heyman report saying the Rockies are interested in Kris Bryant and plan to compete. The tweet noted that it works “geographically” to Bryant’s hometown of Las Vegas, despite several other MLB franchises being located closer to Las Vegas than Denver. In fact, the Rockies are the furthest NL West team from Las Vegas.
Finding pitchers who will embrace the challenge of pitching in Coors Field is always a challenge. Colorado had one in Jon Gray, but he’s now a Texas Ranger. If the Rockies actually do want to compete (doubtful based on recent roster management decisions), pitching is the first place to start.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2021 record: 52-110
2022 committed payroll (including arbitration estimates): $71.6 million
Key additions: Mark Melancon, Jordan Luplow
Key departures: Kole Calhoun, Taylor Clarke
Notable outstanding free agents: Tyler Clippard
The big question with Arizona is Ketel Marte. Teams across the league have likely tried everything they can to pry the dynamic outfielder from the Diamondbacks, but they haven’t budged. Signing Mark Melancon could signal a more aggressive approach to 2022.
At $18 million, Madison Bumgarner is the only expensive rostered player. Arizona’s payroll was at $120.9 million as recently as 2019, so there is at least hypothetical spending opportunity. Arizona should be much more competitive in 2022.