Two weeks ago, it would have seemed outrageous to claim the 49ers’ weaknesses were on defense. This was a team allowing a league-best 15.3 points per game and leading in a host of other defensive categories.
This is still arguably the best defense in the NFL. It’s a group which led the league with 16.3 points and 300.6 yards allowed per game and shut out the Cardinals — albeit a threadbare offense — in the second half, forcing four total turnovers.
Aside from the 33 points relinquished to the Raiders, it’s been a domineering defensive season.
But there are legitimate points for concern on that side of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Brock Purdy-led offense has put up at least 33 points per game in all but the 21-16 win over Seattle. Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell were not available for most of those games. They returned Sunday.
There is no question the offense has benefitted from an elite takeaway rate by the defense.
It’s also benefitting from Brock Purdy, with a league-leading 76.47 completion percentage inside the 20 (6 TDs, 1 INT) and 6 TDs inside the 10 on eight attempts. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk have all found a prolific rhythm while Deebo Samuel has recovered.
The run game has put up 165.5 yards per game over the last six, and they’re not turning the ball over. Purdy is the only concern in the offense, and that’s solely because he hasn’t been in a playoff game. If he continues to play how he has — and his disposition and locker room support indicate he has the makeup to perform in the playoffs — the offense will remain incisive.
The defense, though, has two major question marks.
Leading up to the near-disaster against the Las Vegas Raiders, players on defense — Fred Warner in particular — had mentioned there were a plethora of things to clean up. There were explosives left unclaimed by opposing offenses.
That was mostly written off as the words of a captain and perfectionist demanding the best from his group.
But this group allowed two first-half touchdowns to a team with David Blough at quarterback, with a 34-year-old A.J. Green and Greg Dortch as their two top targets.
The opening 73-yard flea flicker touchdown can viewed simultaneously through optimistic and pessimistic lenses.
On one hand, Deommodore Lenoir had excellent position on Green. On the other hand, he got absolutely Moss’d, and then Green shook off him and Tashaun Gipson Sr. en route to a “C’Mon Man”-style touchdown.
There was a 3rd-and-14 converted by Arizona for 17 yards when Blough checked the ball down to Corey Clement. Talanoa Hufanga was the lone man to stop the play, and opted to charge downhill.
There’s an antsy-ness to Hufanga’s play. He’s an instinctual player who, for better or worse, makes decisions assertively. It’s certainly preferable to someone who is consistently hesitant.
That playmaking panache he offered early in the year seems to have dried up. The 49ers defense is consistently susceptible on underneath throws. Hufanga, rather than working the angle to direct ball-carriers back towards help, bursts downhill where he’s frequently cut out of plays.
He’s costing the 49ers, and offenses have recognized his desire to time snaps, and attack the backfield. Against the Raiders, he was clearly responsible for the first touchdown to Darren Waller, biting on a play-action fake. He recognized it the second time around and needs to continue to make those adjustments.
There are a host of near explosives he makes. But they’re not coming off with the regularity they did early in the year, and when he whiffs, it usually results in a chunk gain.
He needs to be steadier in the playoffs. Consistent playmaking isn’t a necessity from safeties in this defense. Most of Tashaun Gipson Sr.’s team-leading five interceptions, including the two on Sunday, came from defensive line pressure and remaining sound on the backend.
San Francisco has nine-straight games forcing a turnover. They finished tied for the league lead with 20 interceptions, and third overall in takeaways with 30. Coupled with a turnover-stingy offense (9 interceptions, 8 lost fumbles), they led the league with a +13 turnover differential.
Most of those takeaways come within the natural flow of the game.
There are opportunities, like when a ball carrier is being tackled, to come flying in to try and force a fumble, or to try and undercut a route when the opportunity presents itself. But it’s all founded in sound eye positioning and patience in sticking to coverage responsibilities.
Jimmie Ward, who has now transitioned full time to nickel, long defined the role of a safety with one word: “eraser.”
Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, who has a tendency to speak generally and in platitudes, was specific, and critical, when asked about Hufanga last week. He used the same term and pointed to the fact that plays will come naturally within the 49ers’ scheme:
He has to clean up his eyes. It’s too many big plays we’re giving up and Huf knows that. You have to clean up your eyes, especially when you’re protecting us in the back end. You’re the eraser for us. Your eyes can’t be dirty, you can’t be in the back field and he knows that and he has to get better at it…
It’s not your play to make every play. Everybody will make plays in our defense when everybody is playing with discipline, playing with the proper technique, playing with the proper eyes, eye discipline. If everybody is doing that, there’s enough plays for everybody to go around, so when guys do get antsy and they try to do too much, they try to play hero ball. You try to make plays that you’re not supposed to make, that’s when you get gutted as a defense.
Ryans is right.
A safety’s primary purpose is to prevent explosives, or save them from ending up in the end zone. Before he was made persona non grata and maligned as a goat for interception drop in the NFC Championship, Jaquiski Tartt was part of the reason the 49ers ever made it there.
He saved a touchdown against the Packers, who then had their field goal blocked by Ward before halftime.
What is eye discipline. Ryans defined it:
Eye discipline, it simply comes down to when you’re in whatever, zone coverage, man coverage, you have a certain progression of keys and where your eyes should be. And where guys get caught a lot of times is, guys are looking in the back field at the action of the back or the quarterback when they don’t need to.
And if you’re doing that and you’re not progressing and looking at the proper things, whether it’s a route concept, whether you’re passing a route concept off, whether it’s a particular man who’s coming within your zone, or if your eyes should be in that area and they’re not, it’s going to be really hard to make plays.
Guys in his league are too fast, they’re too good for you to not look at the proper thing and then try to look late. And if you look late, it’s too late and guys will make you pay. It doesn’t matter who you’re playing against, the guys in this league are too good. They’ll make you pay.
Lenoir, meanwhile, remains in generally solid position. But his size, at a listed 5’10”, continues to show up as a major issue. He was projected as a slot corner and the team’s fourth-choice outside corner for a reason.
While Pro Football Focus is an imperfect metric, it tends to give a general idea of player performance. Among 136 qualified corners, Emmanuel Moseley, with a 73.5 grade, ranked 28th in coverage. Lenoir ranks 117th (19th-worst).
He was attacked with multiple high point balls against the Raiders, and while A.J. Green clearly extended his forearms on that flea flicker reception, it was Lenoir’s size, more than anything, that cost him. Even when he has leverage on his assignment, he’s allowing receptions
Teams are going to continue to attack him and Hufanga in coverage because there’s no other area to attack in this defense, and those two have looked susceptible to big plays.
There have also been a few concerns with the defensive line remaining sound in their rush lanes and maintaining gap integrity. The loss of Hassan Ridgeway has clearly left a void in the run game, though the return of Kevin Givens this week should help.
Something the Chiefs and Falcons took advantage of, albeit against a weakened defense unit, was the aggression of the defensive line. Kris Kocurek demands aggression from his group, but the requisition to get upfield can also leave gaps un-clogged in the run game and easy routes for quarterback scrambles.
The Raiders did plenty of the same last week, demonstrating a frequent ease to get offensive linemen to the second level and clear the way for Josh Jacobs.
Jarrett Stidham ran for an easy first down conversion when a five-man blitz failed to come off, and every player not rushing was at the second level in coverage.
This isn’t a sound the alarm situation. The 49ers are very close to flawless. This is a statement of those very few flaws, and that if they’re going to be stunned by an early exit or lose in the NFC Championship or Super Bowl, it will likely be — barring a yet-to-be-seen disaster-class from Purdy — because they break down in coverage.