The 49ers are going to have to pay Nick Bosa this offseason. That is no surprise.
Bosa’s future extension was probably penciled in from the moment he won rookie of the year. It was and will be, biblical.
There is no doubt that Bosa will become the highest-paid defensive player in the league. While he said he doesn’t necessarily need to reach that mark, he will.
Edge rushers are the highest-paid non-quarterbacks in football, and Bosa is the league’s best, coming off an 18.5-sack season that netted him Defensive Player of the Year honors.
Some wide receivers like Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill have inch towards the territory of elite edge rushers, but the guaranteed money for the likes of T.J. Watt and Joey Bosa is still far beyond them.
Nick Bosa, at age 25, is the same age as his brother was at the time of his deal. He is the foundation of the 49ers’ defense.
His extension will be massive, rivaling starting quarterback money.
The prediction? A five-year, $150 million extension with $115 million guaranteed and $92.26 million fully guaranteed at signing with a $49.18 million signing bonus. It’s a six-year deal worth $158 million. The first year amends his fifth-year option, which dips substantially to provide extra cap space for the 49ers.
Here’s a really rough look:
This is being constructed without the inclusion of void years. Those can be added when needed to create short-term space by moving non-guaranteed money into a fake contract year at the end of the deal.
Some of the 49ers’ recent extensions, like with Deebo Samuel, Arik Armstead, George Kittle and Jimmie Ward (who will cost the 49ers $6,395,000 in void year dead cap), have used void years, or later had them added. Trent Williams and Fred Warner did not.
Essentially, this is an extension paying Bosa $30 million a year over five years. T.J. Watt got a four-year, roughly $112 million extension worth about $28 million per year in 2021. Joey Bosa got a five-year, $135 million extension in 2020 that pays him $27 million a year.
This guarantees Bosa 76.7 percent of his salary at signing. His brother had 75.5 percent guaranteed. Watt had 80 percent guaranteed (but on a shorter, cheaper deal).
The weird numbers are coming from the fact that these extensions always involve scaling down the year one salary, usually — as is the case for Bosa — as the result of a pricey fifth-year option.
San Francisco will want to scale that down, but compensate Bosa for the first-year difference.
So, take Bosa’s $17,859,000 fifth-year option, which scales down to $9,530,000. That’s $9,179,000 in previously guaranteed money; that’ll get converted into an additional signing bonus, so add it to the previous pro-rated bonus money for a total of $49.18 million.
That first-year prorated bonus money will be lessened and scheduled into the final year of the deal, approximately, in this scenario, $2,835,800.
There are myriad other ways to construct a deal like this. The Steelers guaranteed Watt $36 million in base salary, while the Chargers gave Joey Bosa more than $22 million in roster bonus money.
The 49ers generally don’t go as extreme, but they’ll likely have to guarantee more of Nick Bosa’s salary than they’re accustomed to.
There will also, assuredly, be escalators and incentives in his deal. Winning another DPOY, hitting certain sack totals or leading the league in sacks, will likely be built in to increase the ceiling of the potential deal beyond $160 million over five years.
Again, this is just one crack at Bosa’s contract, and Paraag Marathe, the 49ers’ executive vice president of football operations, along with his team, are far more skilled at working these details out.
But Bosa, based on previous contracts at his position, his age, and the timing, will be a record setter. It would be surprising if he did not crack the $30 million per year threshold, unless he opted to take less intentionally.