In hiring Bob Melvin on Oct. 26, the Giants crossed off the first item on their lengthy offseason checklist.
Now, with the veteran manager installed, the stove is getting hot.
Full-fledged free agency begins on Nov. 6, and the Giants are poised to be active. Although president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has an agreement to a contract extension through 2026 in place, this is a pivotal winter for a franchise that has experienced two straight mediocre seasons and diminishing box office results.
To compete with the defending National League pennant winners Arizona Diamondbacks, perennial powerhouse Los Angeles Dodgers, and star-riddled San Diego Padres in the NL West, the Giants will have to make substantial improvements to the roster that finished 79-83 in 2023.
Here’s everything you need to know about where the Giants stand as the offseason officially begins.
Dates to know
Nov. 6: This is the big one. Every player eligible for free agency is able to sign with any team, following the five-day exclusive negotiating grace period after the end of the World Series. While the MLB offseason rarely sees big dominoes drop immediately, speculation and reports will ramp up.
Contract option decisions are also due on this date, which will mean lots of Giants news. Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea each have player options, and Alex Cobb’s hip surgery could complicate the club’s interest in picking up his $10 million team option. Ross Stripling is picking up his option to return to SF, he told KNBR.
This date also serves as the deadline for teams to make qualifying offers. Players eligible are free agents who have never received the QO before. The Giants retained Joc Pederson with the device last year, but don’t have any obvious candidates this cycle.
Nov. 7-9: General manager meetings are held in Scottsdale, Arizona. Let the dealmaking begin.
Nov. 14: Deadline for players to accept or reject the qualifying offer. If the Giants tag a pending free agent with a QO and they decide to depart for another team, San Francisco would earn a compensatory draft pick.
This date is also the deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. The Giants will have some intriguing choices to make with prospects in the lower levels of their system.
Nov. 14-16: Owners meetings are held in Arlington, Texas. Insert your “somewhat break even” jokes here.
Nov. 17: This is the non-tender deadline for arbitration and pre-arbitration players. More on this later.
Dec. 3-6: Winter meetings in Nashville. Peak refreshing Twitter season.
Dec. 5: The MLB Draft Lottery, where San Francisco has a 1% chance at the first overall pick.
Dec. 6: Rule 5 Draft occurs. Last year, the Giants acquired Blake Sabol, a rare Rule 5 success story.
Jan. 12: Deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration salary figures.
Jan. 15: International free agent signing period opens
Jan. 29 – Feb. 16: Arbitration hearings
~Feb. 20: Pitchers and catchers report in mid February.
Who’s returning to the Giants?
Players under contract or are just about locks to be retained and contribute in 2024 include Logan Webb, Tyler Rogers, Taylor Rogers, Camilo Doval, Mitch Haniger, Wilmer Flores, Anthony DeSclafani, Thairo Estrada, Marco Luciano, Patrick Bailey, Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck, Keaton Winn, Ryan Walker, and Luis Matos.
There’s lots of fluidity from there — and arguably with even some of those players above — when it comes to non-tender decisions and possible trades. But the Giants can’t simply run it back.
In terms of coaches, Alyssa Nakken is likely to return, but much of Gabe Kapler’s staff is in limbo. Pitching director Brian Bannister has already departed, and pitching coach Andrew Bailey is likely to leave as well. It would be surprising if SF brought back its hitting coaches from 2023. Kai Correa and Mark Hallberg, who interviewed for the manager position, are the likeliest to stay on.
So, what about those arbitration decisions?
San Francisco has a number of arbitration and pre-arbitration eligible player they can choose to bring back or non-tender.
The most pressing players in question are Mike Yastrzemski, J.D. Davis, Austin Slater and LaMonte Wade Jr. Each are valuable players who are capable of playing a role on a winning team. None of them are poised to be particularly expensive.
But if the Giants bring all of them back, they’ll naturally have less opportunity to improve the roster from external additions.
Here’s a breakdown of what San Francisco may be weighing.
Who will the Giants need to replace?
John Brebbia is a free agent, and although he has become a fan-favorite, relievers are generally fungible. Manaea is likely to opt-out, and Conforto very well could as well (Ross Stripling publicly indicated he intends to return, but could decide to test the market).
Legendary shortstop Brandon Crawford is a free agent and unlikely to return, meaning Marco Luciano is set to get the first crack at the everyday shortstop role; San Francisco could also look to add depth at the position.
Joc Pederson is also hitting free agency, and although he underperformed in 2023, the Giants will need to find a way to improve in the power department (SF ranked 19th in home runs).
Alex Wood, Scott Alexander, Jakob Junis and Roberto Pérez are also free agents, and free agents with murky paths back to the Giants at that.
What do the Giants need?
Everything. Star power. Top-end rotation arms. Power. Speed.
The Giants were bad defensively, ranked last in steals, didn’t hit for enough power, spent much of 2023 with two true starters in the rotation, and broke the franchise record for striking out.
No one player, not even Ohtani, is going to fix everything.
Who is available?
Two-way phenomenon Shohei Ohtani headlines a free agency class that appears shallow. The only other major prize may be Japanese pitching star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom the Giants are reportedly seriously in on.
A completely unscientific, incomprehensive top-10 of free agents that the Giants should pursue:
- Shohei Ohtani
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- Cody Bellinger
- Aaron Nola
- Blake Snell
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Matt Chapman
- Rhys Hoskins
- Jorge Soler
- Sonny Gray
What might the trade market look like?
This is where things get really interesting, and where much of the above information could get thrown for a loop.
If the Padres — who reportedly took out a $50 million loan because of cash flow issues at the ownership level related to player payroll — make Juan Soto available, the Giants should have as competitive an offer as anyone. If Soto can be had, the Giants should do whatever they can to get it done.
Prying Soto from a division rival would require the Giants making practically everyone in the organization available, even while Soto’s set to hit free agency in 2025.
Smaller deals that could make a big difference for the Giants could involve consolidating some of SF’s pitching depth for an impact position player. The Red Sox, Reds and Cardinals are teams in need of rotation help while having some positional redundancies.
Of those teams, Jarren Duran, Matt McLain, Will Benson, Lars Nootbar, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman would represent substantial upgrades.
How might Bob Melvin help?
When listing attributes of what he wanted out of the Giants’ next manager, Zaidi’s first instinct was to point to someone who can be an “effective recruiter.”
Although the premise of a manager luring free agents is likely overstated (it should be noted Bryce Harper signed in Philadelphia to play for Gabe Kapler), Melvin will almost certainly have an easier time relating to players than Kapler did.
Melvin has a history of managing players from the Pacific Rim. He has worked with Ohtani’s hero, Ichiro Suzuki; Hoo Lee’s former teammate, Ha-Seong Kim; and Yu Darvish, who shares an agent with Yamamoto.
Those connections don’t guarantee anything for the Giants, but they’re not nothing.
How much money do the Giants have to spend?
Giants ownership has made it clear it doesn’t want to spend the capital that would put the club in the luxury tax for multiple years, but that inclination shouldn’t have much bearing on this winter.
The Giants could enter the offseason with as much as $80 to $90 million to burn before reaching the $237 million competitive balance tax threshold. That gives the Giants ample short-term flexibility to pair with their clean long-term payroll budgets.
Money shouldn’t be an obstacle for the Giants this winter. Their willingness to outbid competing teams in free agency, though, remains somewhat of a question.
Can the Giants return to contention?
As tough as the NL West is, as brutal as the 2023 season was, as unflashy as the roster is, there’s always a path.
Take the Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series matchup, for instance. Each team was two years removed from 100-loss seasons. The Giants, although frustratingly mediocre, are further along than those teams were.
Just because a return to playoff contention is possible, that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy — and it certainly doesn’t mean it’s likely.
An immediate return to the expanded playoff picture would take a combination of Giants prospects blossoming, positive regression from returning veterans, and shrewd moves by Zaidi to bring in impact players. Hitting on every avenue to improvement could absolutely turn a 79-win team into an 89-win one.
Home run swings that put Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto, or more big names in orange and black would bring not only prominence, but relevance. For a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff series since 2014, under leadership that hasn’t brought in a signature star, the urgency is at a blaring level.