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Some things are inevitable, like politics making the entire country angry, debates over whether the 49ers will keep Jimmy Garoppolo, or Stephen Curry scoring in scientifically impossible ways and Twitter reacting to those feats with a barrage of “WARDELL!” tweets.
The Texans, inevitably, are still the Texans.
On Friday, in a simultaneously shocking and unsurprising move, the Texans released longtime defensive lineman J.J. Watt. For nearly a decade, Watt has been the Texans. He’s become incredibly tight with the Houston community, frequently providing support in moments of need and setting a standard for how players should treat the communities they live in.
The decision to cut Watt, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, was to honor Watt’s wishes, instead of trading him. How nice, and also, supremely stupid, given that the team could have traded Watt for draft capital at the trade deadline or after the season.
The #Texans could have traded JJ Watt and received a solid draft pick. They decided to do it this way, handling their face of the franchise with class. https://t.co/5zZIo7QPdQ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 12, 2021
So, where’s he headed? Probably not to Santa Clara. There are only two paths for the 49ers to be able to pursue an edge like Watt; Trent Williams signs elsewhere, or they cut/trade/significantly restructure Jimmy Garoppolo’s contract. And they still have to sort out their secondary, which, aside from Jimmie Ward and Tarvarius Moore, is expiring.
None of those are exceedingly likely, and there are already myriad teams with more cap flexibility than the 49ers, like the *deep breath* Jaguars, Colts, Jets, Patriots, Washington, Bengals, Broncos, etc. There are also other teams with money coming off their books and ties to to Watt’s interests (his wife, Kealia, is a professional soccer player in Chicago).
One looming question, though, is how the $23.2 million drop in the cap affects the market price of players especially like Watt, who are aging and have recent, serious injury histories. He’d be almost certain to make $8-plus million per year in a normal market, but that’s no longer guaranteed.
Suffice it to say, it’s unlikely the 49ers sign Watt unless they make a massive and unexpected decision cap-wise. Or, Watt would have to love the 49ers. Maybe reuniting with DeMeco Ryans who he played with his rookie year, and Ryans’ last in Houston? He’d have to love the fit and take a pay cut. Even with the injuries Watt has dealt with over the last five years, the market is expected to be significant for him.
Bookmakers don’t see it as likely, either.
The Steelers (+400) are the favorite to sign J.J. Watt
(Market: CO/IL Only) pic.twitter.com/wUkR6zUrMm
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) February 12, 2021